179
FNUS72 KILM 231119
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Green Swamp Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
719 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging aloft will build over the eastern United States
through midweek. Sea breeze will move through this afternoon
around 18-19z with gusts around 15kt. Hot afternoon temperatures
combined with high humidity will create dangerous heat through much
of the upcoming week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is None.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 98.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon, then shifting to the southwest
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (43490 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............55.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   8   11  14  17  20  17  13  10  8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............80  83  88  91  94  96  97  97  97  96
RH..............81  73  64  58  52  45  44  45  48  51
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   7
20 FT wind gust.6   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   8   10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.4 1.9 3.1 4.2 4.9 5.6 5.6 5.2 3.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  SW
Transp wind spd.15  14  13  13  10  8   7   7   8   9
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   B
LVORI...........3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............23  25  32  50  55  49  48  48  52  41
Vrate mph-ft/1K.18  19  25  39  43  39  39  39  42  34
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  PR  PR  PR  FR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...013 013 013 013 013 013 010 010 010 006

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 14 mph shifting to the west 12
                    to 13 mph overnight.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4833 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Min ADI.............5.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   4   2   2   1   1   1   2   3   8   13  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............93  91  87  84  83  82  81  80  80  79  78  77
RH..............55  58  65  72  77  79  79  80  80  81  81  82
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.11  10  8   7   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  13  14  13  14  13  13  13  12  13  13  12
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   6   6   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.24  11  8   5   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...006 006 008 008 008 008 008 008 005 005 005 006

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 98.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the east around
                    10 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Good (91700 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............109.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  13  12  12  12  12  19  27  34  32  30  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............77  78  81  86  91  94  96  98  98  98  96  95
RH..............83  81  75  65  56  51  47  45  44  46  49  52
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  N   N   N   NE  E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   5   5   5   6   7   7   7   8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.8 4.8 6.0 7.2 6.0 4.7 3.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  10  12  15  13  13  13  12  12  10
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A
LVORI...........4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  11  11  16  31  72  77  93  109 87  65  45
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   5   8   13  24  57  61  76  92  71  52  35
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...006 006 008 008 008 009 009 009 005 005 005 001

$$
Forecaster...Oliva
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516440.0/ILM
.DELDT 06/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org