982
FXUS62 KILM 121841
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Weekend heat along with gradually increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weekend heat along with gradually increasing rain
chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Today`s pattern featuring the
locked in mid level ridge will change Saturday into Sunday in
favor of low amplitude vort-laden troughiness. Pair this with a
weak cold front dropping into the area in the presence of all of
the heat/instability in place and the stage should be set for
increased rainfall. Naturally this activity will be scattered
and QPF will vary wildly from place to place to rather than
area-wide drought releif isn`t expected. Today and Sunday`s
highs will be similar to today`s and so Heat Advisories are once
again expected, though areas north of the front may have
difficulty in reaching quite the values seen today. This
boundary, or whatever remains of it, will be pushed further
south Monday/Tuesday by a slight sharpening of the mid level
trough abating the heat while remaining close enough for a
hopeful continuation of healthy rain chances. By the end of the
forecast we may be transitioning to zonal mid level flow,
building heat, and dwindling rain prospects.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms forming along the
seabreeze are possible near coastal terminals this afternoon. A
secondary, later arriving chance (after 00z), could spread over
inland terminals this evening as a weakening front pushes in from
the northwest. Brief MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible in any
storm, but given limited coverage will not include a mention at this
time.

The front will stall across the area Saturday, which should yield
greater storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening.

SW winds ~10 kt with the sea breeze bringing S winds 15-18 kts.
Inland terminals could briefly become NWLY late tonight as the front
arrives. Otherwise, winds should remain light and variable area-wide
as the boundary meanders overhead.

Extended Forecast...A secondary front early next week will bring a
period of wet and unsettled conditions through midweek. MVFR/IFR in
afternoon and evening storms remain possible this weekend into early
next week. Patchy morning fog and/or stratus also possible, favored
where heavy rain fell the day before.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Wednesday... The setup is typical for June early on
with a Piedmont Trough bringing SW winds and the Bermuda High (which
is squished to the south a bit) brining a minor SE swell. A front
dropping into the Carolinas will weaken the winds Saturday while a
strengthening of the inland trough reverses this trend. A second
reversal back towards weaker flow is then slated for the latter part
of the forecast period along with a slight veer to W as the boundary
moves further south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which may reach record
highs. The hottest day is expected to be today, but Sunday may
reach similar levels. The high temp records for each climate
site are provided below for these dates (June 12 and 14).

Location                Jun 12      Jun 14
Wilmington, NC:         98 (1920)   99 (1958)
Lumberton, NC:          103 (1911)  101 (2015)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC:    96 (2016)   98 (2010)
Florence, SC:           97 (2022)   102 (1958)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB