295
FXUS62 KILM 111418
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1018 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area today behind an exiting
area of low pressure. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the end of the week. Another storm system is expected to
affect the region this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track at the 10 AM EDT forecast
update. Low pressure continues to slowly push offshore, and
sunshine is really starting to come in now. Some parts of Pender
County still have some low clouds, but that`ll clear out within
the next hour or two.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent closed mid-upper low will continue shifting
increasingly offshore through the period. Wraparound showers are
making their way to the coast and will shift offshore around
08-09Z, with skies clearing from west to east behind these
showers. Gusty north to northwest winds will continue into early
this morning near the coast as a strengthening surface low
pulls away, however, the weakening pressure gradient and
slackening low-level flow will allow gustiness to abate by late
this morning, leaving steady northwesterly winds. The coastal
counties of Cape Fear have the potential for a burst of gusty
winds for a few hours soon after sunrise as vertical mixing taps
into remnant fast low-level flow, which could allow for gusts
up to 30kts or so. With plenty of subsidence and dry air in the
column, expect a sunny, warm, and dry day to ensue with highs in
the low to perhaps mid-70s.

As the pressure gradient weakens through the day, expect winds
to become light and variable after sunset with good radiational
cooling allowing for a rapid cooldown this evening beneath clear
skies. Lows should dip into the low-mid 40s, with some normally
cooler/sheltered locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure to our south on Wednesday will maintain very dry
and quiet weather across the region. Light synoptic winds turn
southwesterly and southerly near the coast due to the sea
breeze. High temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. Clear
overnight with lows in the upper 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A compact shortwave tracking across the southeastern US will
approach the Carolinas on Thursday. As it moves eastward, the
limited moisture associated with the upper low will disperse as
the it lifts into the broader zonal flow. Dry air in the low
levels force us to maintain dry forecast. Cloud cover associate
with the shortwave will keep highs on Thursday in the upper 70s.

Expect warmer conditions on Friday behind whatever is left of
the shortwave with southerly flow providing increased humidity
and warmer temperatures near 80 degrees. A surface low and
trough over the central US will produce stronger advection on
Saturday ahead of a cold front expected to move through the
region on Sunday. With increased rain chances, there is a chance
for a few thunderstorms. Still too early to highlight any
severe weather potential. High pressure and dry conditions
return next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are now in place at all terminals and will remain
in place through the TAF period with steady northwesterly
winds gradually subsiding through the day. At ILM, remnant
strong low- level flow may be tapped soon after sunrise and
permit a period of gusty winds with gusts exceeding 25 kts for a
few hours before the flow gradually weakens. Expect winds to
become light and variable after sunset, although very dry air
should preclude any substantial mist formation overnight.

Extended Outlook... High pressure will dominate with high
confidence in VFR conditions persisting through Friday.
Increasing moisture ahead of a strong storm system may lead to
mist/fog concerns on Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Stiff northwesterly winds will gradually
subside through today and back to WNWrly by late in the day.
Seas will follow suit, although SCA-level seas of at least 6
feet look to remain in the NC coastal waters through early
afternoon. Otherwise, expect westerly winds to fall to or below
10 kts this evening and persist through the night while seas
subside into the 1-3 ft range by late in the night.

Wednesday through Saturday... High pressure off of the
southeastern US coast brings southerly and southwest winds to
the area late this week. A passing shortwave could bring a
shower or storm offshore on Thursday night. While the gradient
remains weak on Friday, southeasterly winds increase and
gradually veer throughout the day. On Saturday, the synoptic
gradient increases ahead of a strong low pressure system over
the central US. Seas build late Saturday and Saturday night with
the approaching surface cold front. Conditions will likely
approach SCA thresholds with this cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...21/ABW