683
FXUS62 KILM 230108
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
908 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air will build into the area through late week
after a cold frontal passage tonight. Warmer and more unsettled
weather returns early next week as a series of waves develops
along a front stalled nearby.

&&

.UPDATE...
Latest public forecast update featured the addition of 20% rain
chances in NC this evening given recent radar/obs trends,
although some models suggest additional showers overnight into
Friday morning in SC as well due to continued shortwave energy
aloft. Overall though only about a tenth of an inch or less of
rain is likely most spots.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will pass through the area this evening,
accompanied by sct-bkn clouds but little or no rain. Cooler and
drier air will filter in behind it resulting in slightly below
normal temperatures tonight and Friday. Lows tonight will fall
to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs Friday will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate through much of the weekend. Dry
air and cooler temperatures will hover at or slightly below
normal for late May. Expect afternoon highs around 80 with
overnight lows in the lower 60s. Saturday morning could start in
the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flattening mid level flow over the southeastern US and a
frontal boundary to our south will reintroduce rain chances on
Sunday (especially over southern parts of the area). The front
lifts toward the area on Monday with a coastal trough developing
offshore as a broad area of low pressure also builds across the
southern Plains and southeastern US. A series of weak
shortwaves will follow the front through early next week. The
best chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday as
a wave of low pressure moves across a stalled frontal boundary
which will reside across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Saturday. A mainly
dry cold front will move through this evening with a few
light/brief showers are possible, especially in NC, but no
significant impacts are expected. Gusty surface winds will be
diminishing this evening as low-level winds around 2k ft
increase, although confidence is too low in LLWS developing to
mention. Gusty W winds up to around 25 kt will develop again
starting late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR through early Sun.
An increasing risk for flight restrictions starting late Sun
through Tue as a frontal system affects the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday... W to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT this afternoon
will increase to 15 to 20 KT tonight before becoming more
westerly and diminishing to 10 to 15 KT for Friday. Seas of 2 to
4 FT tonight will subside to 2 to 3 FT Friday.

Friday Night through Tuesday... High pressure settles overhead
this weekend, expect light and generally offshore winds. Nearly
perfect boating conditions with seas around 1-2 feet. On Sunday,
high pressure moves offshore and southerly winds develop as a
weak frontal boundary approaches from the south. Onshore flow
increases on Monday as a coastal trough develops and the weak
front inches closer. Unsettled weather is expected to develop
along this trough early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RJB/31
MARINE...21/31