610
FXUS62 KILM 100605
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
205 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions
will impact the area as low pressure develops and moves along
the Southeast Coast to the Mid-Atlantic Coast today thru Sun.
Moderate rainfall is possible along the coast Fri night thru
early Sun. Improvement is expected late Sun into early next week
as high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Last night`s cold front has plowed south all the way through Daytona
Beach, FL and northeast winds have brought modified Canadian air
across the Carolinas with early morning dewpoints ranging from the
50s along the coast to the upper 40s inland. Changes are coming as
Canadian High Pressure moves farther off the New England coast and
surface low pressure begins to develop later today along the Florida
East Coast on the stalled front.

Increasing Atlantic influence means dewpoints should creep up to
around 60 along the coast today. There are also signs that westward-
moving showers will develop off the coast and move inland this
morning, pushed by a developing easterly low level jet with speeds
at 3000-4000 feet AGL increasing to 40-45 knots. The largest
potential for showers is expected to be near Murrells Inlet and
Georgetown where forecast PoPs are as high as 50-60 percent. Less
depth of moisture north toward Cape Fear should limit coverage of
showers to 20-40 percent.

The low should consolidate a little better tonight off the Florida
East Coast. Our 850 mb flow will veer southeasterly tonight, pushing
an airmass from the Bahamas up over the front and across cooler
surface air in place across the Carolinas. Dusting off the old
isentropic lift procedures in AWIPS shows increasing moisture ascent
centered on the 305K surface (roughly 725-775 mb) that should yield
a solid region of rain with embedded convective elements reaching
the coast late tonight. Through 12z (8 am) Saturday forecast PoPs
are as high as 80 percent in the Cape Fear area, but less than 30-40
percent west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The forecast with regards to the storm system moving
north off the coast is careening toward locked in status. The
best forcing and moisture for the weekend occurs early Saturday
trending off south to north afterward. Pops are now in
categorical criteria along the coast trending down inland. Total
QPF amounts continue to reside in the 2-4 inch ranges along the
coast with lower amounts elsewhere. Temperatures have continued
to close the diurnal gap which I favor with highs in and around
70 and lows more in the middle 60s although the range will
understandably increase by early Monday. Finally with the lack
of significant rain in the past week or so no long fused flood
headlines seem necessary.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period remains void of any significant
weather as the cyclonic flow associated with the weekend system very
slowly relaxes. There appears to be a dry front that moves across
mid week offering only a subtle change in thermal profiles.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aviation... Although conditions at the surface remain stable and
dry, a 40 knot jet of easterly winds near 4000 feet AGL is bringing
in Atlantic moisture with clouds already moving onshore across
northeastern South Carolina. After 10z there is a moderate potential
ceilings at KCRE and KMYR could dip below 3000 feet AGL with some
scattered showers moving onshore through 15-16z. Afterward, showers
and any lingering low ceilings should retreat south of KMYR with
generally VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours. The biggest weather concern for most
airports will be breezy northeast winds gusting to 25 knots at times.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A Nor`easter moving slowly up the coast late
tonight through Sunday morning will lead to high probabilities of
MVFR to IFR conditions in ceilings for all local airports. KILM,
KCRE, and KMYR have moderate to high probabilities for visibility
reductions in rain as well. Gusty north to northeast surface winds
will continue and could reach 25 to 30 knots Saturday into Saturday
night. The probability of weather impacts will fall Sunday afternoon
and generally VFR weather is expected Monday into Tuesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight ...
Last night`s cold front made it all the way
through the northern one-third of Florida before stalling out
between Daytona Beach and Cape Canaveral. Low pressure will soon
begin to take shape along the front, albeit a hundred or so miles
south of where models showed it developing a day ago. The net effect
through tonight isn`t too dissimilar though: a tight pressure
gradient between the developing low and Canadian High Pressure off
the New England coast should continue to produce NE winds 25-30
knots with gusts to 35 knots. A Gale Warning will remain in effect
through this evening although there is at least some potential the
warning may need to be extended out in time for the coastal waters
east of Georgetown, SC.

Seas have built to 10 feet out at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy with 6-
7 ft seas reported at the Wrightsville Beach nearshore buoy and the
"harbor" buoy south of Southport, NC. These seas are nearly fully
developed for the force of the wind and should not change
appreciably throughout today.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Strong small craft conditions will be in place staring the
period early Saturday. This will be in place for some time after it
is issued following today and this evening`s gale headline. There
remains a smattering of guidance that supports another gale headline
later Saturday into early Sunday (marginal of course) bot confidence
remains low thus no gale watch. Slow improvement remains in the
offing next week with wind keeping a northerly component.
Significant seas will eventually fall to 2-4 feet from this
weekend`s higher values.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong and steady northeast winds are banking water up against the
coastline of the Carolinas and will lead to another round of coastal
flooding with the 10 AM high tide at the beaches. The highest water
levels relative to normal are expected along the Grand Strand
southward through Georgetown County where anomalies of +2.0 to +2.4
feet are expected, pushing water levels above 8.5 feet MLLW at the
Myrtle Beach gauge on Springmaid Pier. This exceeds moderate flood
stage and a Coastal Flood WARNING will be issued this morning for
Georgetown and Horry counties. A "warning" indicates tidal flooding
will be deeper and more expansive than during any of the numerous
advisory-level events we`ve had this year.

Farther north in the Cape Fear area, slightly weaker northeast winds
and a shorter fetch will push water levels into the +1.5 to +1.8
foot range and a Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in effect
through this morning`s high tide. Flooding will also develop along
the tidal portion of the Cape Fear River affecting downtown
Wilmington during the 1245 PM high tide.

A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect for the Pender,
New Hanover, and Georgetown County beaches where east-northeasterly
swells will have the most direct wave impact on the coast. Surf
conditions could remain hazardous through the weekend as the
Nor`easterly moves slowly north along the coast.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA