549
FXUS62 KILM 030057
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
857 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters near Cape Fear
has been canceled. CORMP, NDBC, and NOS buoys and piers suggest
25 kt gusts have ended inside of 20 nm from shore.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain tapering off by this evening with dry and cool weather
arriving tonight into Sunday.

2) One final night of very minor coastal flooding along the lower
Cape Fear River.

3) Above normal temperatures by mid-week ahead of another cold
front, and rainfall chances return Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain tapering off by this evening with dry and cool
weather arriving tonight into Sunday.

Rain will taper off from west to east during by late afternoon into
evening as deepening low pressure offshore accelerates away from the
area. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind it in a north to
northwest flow tonight into Sunday. The axis of greatest pcp water
along and just offshore with values up to 1.5 to 1.8 inches this
aftn will shift eastward as low lifts off to the northeast with
plenty of dry air in place by Sunday. Pcp water values will be down
to .35 inches on Sunday with a huge drop in dewpoints also.
Dewpoints in the mid 50s this aftn will be down to the mid 30s by
Sun morning. Overnight lows will be down in the 40s most places,
rising to near 70 Sun aftn.


KEY MESSAGE 2: One final night of very minor coastal flooding
along the lower Cape Fear River.

Tide levels are expected to just reach advisory levels along the
Lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington generally from
10 PM to 1 AM tonight. Tide predictions suggest this will be the
final day of any coastal flooding as water levels should remain
below thresholds with high tide late Sunday night onward.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Above normal temperatures by mid-week ahead of
another cold front, and rainfall chances return Thursday.

Sfc high pressure slides farther offshore early to mid week with
flow becoming out of the S/SW. A gradual warm up will ensue,
with high temps Wednesday and Thursday returning to the 80s
most inland areas away from the coast. As far as rain chances,
ensemble data continues to point to likely PoPs across much of
the area on Thursday as a strong cold front moves through the
area supported by a 500 mb trough over the Eastern U.S., but
there continues to be a fair amount of disagreement on exact
rain amounts - likely dependent on the amount of organized
convection that develops over the area. Given the drought, any
rainfall would help some. Otherwise, a deep dry/westerly column
suggests clearing by the end of the week with the high
likelihood for below normal temperatures again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry air on northerly winds is undercutting the clouds aloft and
VFR conditions should develop by 04z even down at the coast.
Until then, MVFR to patchy IFR low stratocumulus ceilings will
affect the coastal airports KILM, KMYR, and KCRE. Just-issued
TAFs show the anticipated timings specific to each airport.

The only other weather concern is the possible development of
ground fog overnight. Surface wind speeds may diminish quickly
enough to prevent dry air from displacing low level moisture
completely. This potential is moderate at KFLO, and low
elsewhere.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. A cold
front on Thurs should produce possible sub-VFR ceilings and
vsbys in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Waves of low pressure along lingering front
offshore will maintain northerly winds across the waters. A
very marginal SCA remains in effect for gusts to 25 kts through
this evening over the NC waters out to 20 nm, while 25 to 30 kts
should be observed in the 20 to 60 nmi zones. Seas should stay
mainly 2 to 4 ft in the coastal waters out to 20 nm and 4 to 6
ft in the 20 to 60 nmi waters, driven by a combination of
northerly wind waves and longer period northeasterly swells.
High pressure will build in behind departing low into Sunday
with NW flow 10 to 15 kts.

Sunday night through Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions this period
with offshore sfc high pressure slowly pushing farther off the
coast. Winds will average out of the SSW at 10-15 kt with 2-3 ft
seas, a combo of 2-4 second SSW wind waves and 8-9 second ENE
swells. Next high likelihood of marine headlines, due to both
winds and seas, arrives early Thursday ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...MAS/RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/RGZ