696
FXUS62 KILM 151130
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
630 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Beneficial rainfall will occur this afternoon into tonight,
with total rainfall between 0.5" and 1".

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Beneficial rainfall will occur this afternoon
into tonight, with total rainfall between 0.5" and 1".

Low pressure system and associated upper trough currently
approaching the Gulf states will move across the Southeast late
this afternoon into this evening. Rain increases this afternoon
from the west and south as a warm front lifts north across most
of the area and deep isentropic lift develops. Might be a brief
lull late afternoon before rain rates increase again as the
surface low and PVA moves across this evening. Rain exists the
area tonight with low clouds lingering into Monday.

QPF ranges from around 0.5" for coastal NE SC/southern Pee Dee
region, to 0.75"-1" across the Cape Fear region and west of
I-95. There is a slight chance of elevated instability and
thunder late this afternoon into this evening, which would
contribute towards the higher rainfall estimates. Looking at
model soundings and weak lapse rates aloft, might be tough for
the instability to materialize. Regardless of total QPF, no
flooding concerns with any rainfall being welcome for our
ongoing moderate to severe drought.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail through this morning. Low pressure system
moving across the area this afternoon into early tonight will
lead to widespread rain and low clouds. Flight restrictions will
develop this afternoon around 17-19z as MVFR cigs move in and
intermittent low visibilities develop with widespread rain
through this evening. IFR cigs may develop by late this
afternoon, with higher chances for IFR, and possible LIFR
ceilings, this evening into tonight. There is a slight chance of
thunder late this afternoon into evening hours, particularly at
coastal terminals, but confidence too low for TAF inclusion at
this time. Light winds this morning before 5-10 kt southeast
winds develop during the day with gusts to 15 kts. Winds turn
southerly this evening, veering to northwesterly at the end of
TAF period. There is a brief window of LLWS at coastal
terminals this evening, around 0-4z, as southerly winds at
2000ft increase to 35-40kt. Ceilings begin to lift in the last
few hours of TAF period, though expected to still sub-VFR
through at least 12z Monday.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions linger into Monday
morning before VFR returns Monday afternoon. Predominantly VFR
during the day through mid-week, with a chance of fog/stratus
each night and early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Onshore flow will be increasing today as a
low pressure system approaches from the west and a warm front
lifts north this afternoon. Southerly winds peak this evening at
15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds turn westerly tonight
and northwesterly by Monday morning as the low exists the area.
Seas in turn will be building throughout the day, starting
around 1-2 ft this morning and increasing to 5-8 ft by late this
evening due to swell from long fetch of southerly winds. Seas
will slowly be improving through the night, expected to be in
the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning, with southerly swell still
the primary component. Widespread rain is expected over the
waters starting this afternoon and continuing into early
tonight, with intermittent moderate rain rates and low
visibilities. There is a slight chance of thunder late this
afternoon into evening hours.

Monday through Thursday...Although the cold front will be
offshore Mon morning, headlines will likely continue into Mon
afternoon before conditions improve. Low pressure east of the
Delmarva Peninsula strengthens as it moves away from the coast.
The gradient between the deepening low and high pressure
building in from the west will keep northerly flow near 20 kt
for much of Mon. Seas will remain above 6 ft into the afternoon
before the gradual decrease in speeds and the northerly
component lead to seas within 20nm dropping under 6ft. High
moves overhead Tue into Wed with winds becoming light and
variable and seas dropping to 2-3 ft. Return flow sets up Wed
and increases to 15-20 kt Wed and Thu with the gradient becoming
more defined. Enhanced southerly flow will build seas to 3-5 ft
for the middle of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO