917
FXUS62 KILM 051831
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
231 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift north of the area tonight. After a one
day break in thunderstorm activity Friday, the weather will turn
quite unsettled for the next several days as a series of upper
level disturbances cross the area during hot and humid
conditions.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure is currently centered near Marlboro county, and
will slowly move northeast across eastern NC tonight into tomorrow.
Scattered storms will continue to develop and move east-northeast
across the area through early this evening, as instability has
increased from the south aided by sunshine. Marginal risk of
flooding remains for this afternoon if any storm training occurs in
this very moist environment. Precipitation will come to an end from
west to east after sunset as dry air wraps around the low.

Overnight, after the rain has exited the area, could see low stratus
and fog develop through morning, especially across SE NC. Don`t
expect the fog to become dense as BL winds remain a bit elevated,
but can`t rule out patches of thicker fog Friday morning. Low temps
tonight around 67-70F. Weather will be quiet on Friday with partly
cloudy skies and highs near 90F. There is a chance an isolated storm
or two could develop along the sea breeze Friday afternoon, but
overall dry air aloft as low level subsidence develops around the
exiting low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture return will be underway at the start of the period. Some
warmer air also starts to advect in from the SW. This warming paired
with a fair amount of June sunshine for most of the day will allow
for a hot afternoon with highs in the low 90s away from the beaches.
And with dewpoints warming into the 70s we`ll be looking at heat
indices topping out around 100 degrees. Lastly the steep low level
lapse rates that develop in the afternoon will yield some healthy
instability and our severe potential may hinge on how strong the
subsidence drying above 700mb grows. Models like the WRF have
massive drying and little to no convective signal despite having the
strongest instability forecast. Prefer to maintain mid range chc
POPs as such a dry solution seems suspect and is not present in
other guidance.  The best mid level forcing now appears to pass north
of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday now looking like one of the busier days of the forecast.
Saturday`s moisture problem appears gone for a better coverage of
thunderstorms and shear/instability parameters still point to the
possibility of severe weather mainly in the form of wet downbursts.
We also may see a few more mid level disturbances, some of which may
be convective in origin. The remainder of the forecast period
remains quite unsettled, perhaps even to the extent of Sunday.
Increasingly deep trough north the Great Lakes will enhance SWrly
flow locally and a few sheared shortwaves will traverse the area all
in the presence of deep moisture. The severe trend may trend downward
even if only slightly as there may be a small downtick in high
temperatures and more widespread cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flight conditions will continue to be quite variable through
this evening, with predominantly MVFR conditions across SE NC
and VFR across NE SC, though these will likely bounce around.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue through around 0z before
clearing from west to east, and will see drops in visibility
within any of the heavier showers. After the precipitation moves
out, with the low pressure system slowly exiting to the
northeast, there is a good chance for low stratus and fog to
develop with moist low levels overnight through Friday morning.
Will say confidence isn`t high as dry air around backside of
exiting low might be closer to the surface than expected.
Confidence is moderate in IFR/MVFR for SE NC terminals
overnight/morning and low for NE SC. Expect VFR conditions
across the area by end of TAF period, as skies clear from west
to each Friday morning.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions possible during afternoon
thunderstorms Saturday through Monday, along with chance of
overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday night and Sunday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Weak low pressure inland will slowly move northeast
across eastern NC tonight into tomorrow. Scattered storms may impact
local coastal waters through this evening as they move offshore.
Southwest winds 15-20 kts tonight will briefly turn westerly around
15 kts early Friday as the low moves to the north before sea breeze
influence aids in backing the winds back to southwesterly Friday
afternoon. Seas 4-5 ft tonight will lower to 3 ft by late Friday
afternoon as the southerly swell slowly weakens.

Friday night through Tuesday... Southwesterly flow, our most common
warm season wind, will be in place for the entire period. The coast
will be between stalled surface troughs and late in the period a
cold front to the west, and a slightly expanding area of high
pressure in the Atlantic. Spectral wave plots keep dominant periods
in the wind wave category as most of the swell energy appears to
remain offshore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...ILM