694
FXUS62 KILM 231459
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1059 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will develop tonight along a stalled front
offshore leading to increased shower chances near the coast
through Sunday. Much drier and cooler weather will arrive behind
another cold front Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast other than to clean up
some headlines which have expired or are expiring early.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A front remains stalled across southern GA while weak high pressure
is expected to move off the New England coastline today. A slug of
rather significant dry mid level air has pushed across North
Carolina which should maintain a roughly 0.75 inch north-to-south
gradient in precipitable water values during the first half of today.

It`s really a tale of two airmasses. Deep moisture with precipitable
water values over 2.0 inches remains across the southern half of
South Carolina closer to the stalled front. Forecast rain chances
through late afternoon range from 70 percent in Georgetown to 50
percent in Myrtle Beach, but then only 30 percent in Wilmington and
20 percent in Lumberton and Elizabethtown. The aforementioned dry
mid level air should help keep most areas north of Myrtle Beach dry
into early afternoon.

A shortwave moving through the Great Lakes later today will pick up
a weak impulse across the inland Carolinas, lifting it northeastward
to near the coast this evening. This, plus the development of a
modest 50 knot 250 mb jet streak off the Mid Atlantic coast will
help spur the development of low pressure along the front stalled to
our south. The front should begin to lift northward tonight with
deep moisture surging northward along the coastline. Forecast PoPs
react accordingly, increasing to 60-70 percent from Myrtle Beach
through Southport and Wilmington, but remaining much lower inland
where mid level westerly flow should preclude significant moisture
advection. It`s worth noting the Friday 18z GFS shows mid level dry
air being more tenacious than in some other models which could eat
into rainfall totals, especially near and north of Cape Fear
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure continues to track northeastward. Guidance is a
bit shaky on how exactly it moves. The coarser, global guidance
wants the low to stay offshore, while some of the higher resolution
ensembles put it tracking up the coastline. This difference is
rather critical in determining how the rain chances set up. A low
tracking up the coastline means more widespread showers and storms,
while a track offshore keeps the activity limited to the coast and
the coastal waters. Tried to split the differences here, where the
coast stands the best chance at recording showers and storms Sunday,
with chances decreasing as you move more towards I-95. Highs in the
mid 80s.

Sunday night, the low pressure moves up near the Outer Banks and
further offshore, which pulls the moisture away from the area. Dry
forecast in store, with lows in the lower 70s for most. Some spots
in the Pee Dee region could bottom out in the upper 60s.

Monday afternoon, a rather moisture-starved cold front sweeps
through the area from west to east. Pre-frontal warming will allow
temperatures to shoot up into the mid-to-upper 80s. Some areas in
the Cape Fear region may record 90 degrees before the front comes
in. The front may try to interact with the seabreeze and bring an
isolated shower or storm near the coast.

Front quickly moves offshore Monday night, taking the moisture with
it. Temperatures and dewpoints both drop noticeably overnight. Lows
bottom out in the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast. Some
dewpoints inland may drop into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Get ready for some of the finest weather we`ve seen in awhile. As if
Mother Nature knows that meteorological fall and football season are
on the horizon, much cooler and drier air will dominate the week.
Highs Tuesday get into the mid 80s, but drop a bit more into the
lower 80s Wednesday through Friday. Better yet, lows in the mid 60s
Tuesday night become the lower 60s Wednesday night and Thursday
night. In fact, some parts of the Pee Dee region could bottom out in
the upper 50s. These lows trend near or right at 10 degrees below
normal for late August. Moisture tries to come back in and squeeze
out a shower or two along the coast Thursday and Friday, but the
atmosphere is going to have a hard time doing that.

Until then, open up the windows at night, have a pumpkin spice
latte, and enjoy a little fall teaser!

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thick mid and high clouds are overspreading the area. Beneath
this cloud deck is a layer of dry air that is covering areas as
far south as Myrtle Beach. Low pressure anticipated to develop
off the SC coast over the next 12-18 hours should lead to
moisture surging back along the coast later today with rain and
lower cloud bases anticipated.

Although VFR conditions currently exist at all local airports,
there is a moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings and visibility
in rain to develop at KMYR after 14z this morning. Dry air
should initially keep this activity from moving northward,
however similar conditions could develop at KCRE by 17z, and
then KILM tonight. Inland: drier air below the cloud base
should limit rainfall intensity and maintain generally VFR
conditions.

There is a moderate potential for IFR ceilings to develop late
tonight at KILM, and a low potential at KCRE and KMYR. These
conditions are most likely to occur after 08z.

Extended Outlook...There is moderate confidence in MVFR to IFR
conditions along the coast affecting KMYR, KCRE, and KILM
through at least Sunday afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...East-northeast winds will continue today between
a stalled front across southern Georgia and weak high pressure
off the New England coastline. Wind speeds should average 10-15
knots north of Myrtle Beach, however closer to the front across
the Georgetown and Horry county coastal waters speeds of 15 to
occasionally 20 knots appear more likely.

The dominant wave group across the coastal waters remains the 12
second easterly swell from former Hurricane Erin in the open North
Atlantic. The shallow water on Frying Pan Shoals will block the
northern South Carolina coast from a portion of this swell, however
stronger ENE winds anticipated along the South Carolina coast today
should add a 4 second wind chop on top of the swell. Combined seas
should average 3 to 4 feet today throughout the area with the
exception of the nearshore Brunswick County coastal waters where
land blockage of both swell and wind chop should produce a region of
benign 1-2 foot seas within 5 miles of shore.

Sunday through Wednesday...Variable winds at 10 kts Sunday
eventually back to the WNW Sunday night, continuing to back to the
SW Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Seas linger at 2-3 ft
throughout this time. Cold front sweeps through the area Monday
night, and winds will veer to the northeast Tuesday through
Wednesday at 10-12 kts. Seas decrease slightly to 1-2 ft. Long
period easterly swells leftover from Erin still remain through most
of the period, but finally start to erode away late Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide cycle through early next week, with the
evening high tide cycles being the higher high tide. Minor
coastal flooding is also expected along the southeast NC and
northeast SC coasts during the higher evening high tides
through at least today, although could also occur during the
Sunday morning high tide.

RIP CURRENTS: An elevated risk of rip currents north of Cape
Fear is expected to continue through the weekend, due to
lingering swells from Hurricane Erin. Rip currents may continue
into early next week as swells from another distant system
approach the US east coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...