Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
233 FXUS62 KILM 131006 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 606 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure along with an inland trough will generally prevail although a front could near mid week bringing a bit better rain chances. && .UPDATE... Adjusted the fog coverage in the forecast for this morning but again looking patchy outside of our traditionally colder spots. Increased POPs slightly for this afternoon. Updated 12Z aviation below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Another standard summer day with scattered showers on the afternoon sea breeze, starting at the coast then expanding inland into the evening. I`m expecting higher coverage than we`ve seen for the past several days as there should be some aid aloft. The low pressure offshore to our NE will extend a trough of lower pressure down the coast just offshore which will get dragged inland this afternoon as the Piedmont trough inland interacts with it. 2-3k CAPE will develop inland which could support some isolated stronger pop-up storms but the threat for damaging wind gusts is low. Heat indices once more will near Heat Advisory criteria (105F), but with drier air mixing in from aloft during the day knocking the RH and disruptions from storms, I doubt criteria will be met for a widespread area or for 2+ hours. Otherwise, moderate confidence on fog, particularly inland, for tonight so have added it to the forecast. Coverage for this will likely be expanded on with further forecast updates as I`ve just gone with patchy for now. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm risk *Slightly above normal flash flood risk *Near to above normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No significant weather features expected this period with weak low prosier to the south, high pressure to the east and a trough inland. However, by Tuesday a weakening cold front could approach from the northwest leading to a bit more rain coverage. Otherwise, generally expect typical afternoon/evening showers and storms, although could see a bit more than normal Tue morning near the coast as a weak inverted trough extends northward from the low to the south. The severe storm risk will be very low given the weak deep layer shear but that will also help lead to a bit better risk for flash flooding. Temps will generally be near normal, a bit cooler Tue compared to Mon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm/flash flood risk *Near to above normal temps Confidence: *Moderate Details: Expect a mainly typical summertime pattern with mostly afternoon/evening showers/storms due to the subtropical high centered to the east and a lee-side trough inland. No significant severe/flash flood risk is anticipated. Temps should be near to above normal, especially after Wed. Heat indices look to stay below Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for the most part until possibly late week. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog should burn off by the start of the TAF period. The sea breeze will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms with restrictions near-MVFR CIGs, MVFR to IFR VSBYs, and gusty winds. Still thinking we`ll deal with fog tonight so have added some of it to the TAFs. IFR is possible, but confidence was too low to include that. Wouldn`t be surprised if VSBYs went down for tonight though with further TAF updates. Worst conditions expected inland. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Light winds with only influence being the afternoon sea breeze which will make them onshore around 5-10 kts and then light and variable again tonight. Seas generally 2 ft with swells E 1 ft at 9-10 seconds and SE 2ft at 6-7 seconds. Monday through Thursday...Weak pressure pattern should prevail, mainly with Atlantic high pressure the predominate feature. Mostly southerly winds about 15 kt or less with seas only reaching 3 to 4 toward mid week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RJB/LEW