567
FXUS62 KILM 050817
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
317 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking to our south will bring much cooler weather
today and some rain chances lasting into tonight. Warm and dry
weather returns Thursday into Friday though another front
arrives later Friday. The weekend will be rather mild as well
but a stronger cold front late Sunday will bring back February
temperatures and cloudy, unsettled conditisons early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Complex forecast today with backdoor cold front now south of the
area and wedge setting up as high pressure noses in from the north.
Coastal trough development today will enhance the wedge with
prolonged northeast flow feeding cool, moist air into the forecast
area. A weak wave developing on the stalled front and the location
of the 850 mb ridge will generate weak to moderate isentropic lift
across the area later today into this evening, with patchy light
rain developing across the northern tier later today. Not expecting
a lot of rain, and coverage at anyone time will be patchy. The
surface wave moves offshore this evening then heads north along the
weak coastal trough which brings an end to the first round of light
rain. Another batch of rain, this one more showery, moves in from
the west late tonight and is associated with a weak shortwave.
Moisture and dynamics with the shortwave are limited and it may not
lead to much additional rainfall across the area. In fact the bulk
of any rain from this feature would fall over areas that see the
least/no rain during the late afternoon/evening round. Total
rainfall across the area will be at or below 0.10"

While confidence in the rain/clouds discussed above is moderate, the
confidence in today`s high temp forecast is low. A wedge always
leads to a large temperature gradient across a relatively small area
and with this scenario it appears the gradient will be across the
ILM forecast area. Southern portion of the forecast area, especially
along the coast, will stay on the warm side of the wedge, the
remainder of the forecast area is in question. If the clouds move in
quick and northeast flow becomes entrenched early, highs across NC
and inland SC could be several degrees cooler than forecast. If the
wedge takes a bit longer to set up, inland NC/SC counties could end
up a little warmer. Lows tonight are less complicated with the wedge
weakening and heavy cloud cover temperatures will run above to well
above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With our chilly Wednesday wedge eroded warm weather returns on
Thursday. A low level thermal ridge of 850mb temps pushing 13C
advects into the region. Interestingly some operational guidance
(WRF especially and less so GFS) holds on to a cloudy day with
chilly temps close to Wed yet still showing SW winds developing.
Such solutions being much cooler than even the NBM 10th percentile
have been rejected at this time and it still appears that a return
of 70 degree PM temps likely. The return of sunshine also fits the
pattern (zonal mid level flow atop SW LL flow) much more than the
the aforementioned pessimistic guidance, but I`d be a bit remiss to
not mention their solutions as a remote possibility since it`d be a
jarring difference from the current thinking.

Friday`s temperature forecast also has some uncertainty woven in
though to a lesser degree. Friday`s afternoon warmth will hinge upon
the speed of the front that is slated to come through, a slower
FROPA favoring a very warm afternoon with highs in the upper 70s, a
faster frontal passage tempering the warmth. Ensemble numbers have
fallen a bit and the front does seem a tad faster so this trend
appears acceptable. End result: though forecast confidence not
through the roof at this time, both days should be unseasonably
warm, and rain chances should be confined to minimal chances early
Thursday with warm front lifting and Friday`s cold frontal passage.
Guidance has some slightly higher POPs Friday night as the
decelerating front gets overrun by weak WAA but we`ve capped rain
chances at `slight` at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pretty active pattern in the long term, though unfortunately lacking
any appreciable drought-relieving rain. Warm front lifting northward
on Saturday could touch off the stray shower, but will bring
unseasonable warmth with higher certainty. Sea fog could affect area
beaches with the onshore flow that develops. Rain chances minimized
and QPF nearly negligible by very dry mid level air atop the frontal
moisture on account of unwavering westerly winds through a very deep
layer. Sunday poses a similar temperature forecast challenge as
Friday as we should be very warm ahead of the afternoon strong FROPA
but a faster solution would definitely temper the currently forecast
80 degree-challenging values. Back to the reality of it being
February behind this boundary with temperatures close to or even shy
of normal especially with clouds lingering beneath the very healthy
surface-based frontal inversion. Light rain will be tough to rule
out the last few days of the period with the cool surface airmass
being overrun but the steep vertical slope of the front keeps the
stronger low level baroclinicity and thus deep moisture/precip
chances closer to the nation`s capital, possibly rising on Tuesday
as deep moisture shifts south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Moderate confidence in VFR at all terminals through daybreak.
There is some signal of MVFR/IFR cloud developing offshore and
spreading over ILM in the predawn hours. After daybreak high
confidence in MVFR ceilings spreading over the area, although
timing is a little uncertain. Patchy light rain and 2k ft MVFR
ceilings developing in the afternoon, with IFR ceilings
threatening. High confidence in IFR ceilings developing in the
evening and lasting through 06Z Thu.

Extended Outlook...High confidence for MVFR/IFR ceilings
visibility late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
VFR remainder of Thursday and Friday. Confidence remains low
for sea fog affecting the coastal terminals late week. Low
confidence MVFR Saturday morning becoming VFR later Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...

Enhanced northeast flow this morning will gradually weaken today as
coastal trough develops and gradient relaxes. Flow will remain
northerly into Thu morning before winds become offshore. Solid 15 kt
this morning through midday before speeds drop closer to 10 kt later
in the afternoon and 10 kt or less overnight. The enhanced northeast
flow this morning will build seas to 3-5 ft. Decreasing wind speeds
in the afternoon bring a return of 3-4 ft with 3-4 ft persisting
through the night. Initially seas will be a mix of 2 wind waves,
east and south. The southerly wind wave will weaken and disappear
later today while the easterly wind wave builds.


Thursday through Sunday... Southwesterly flow returns at the start
of the period as the wedge that had been in place washes out and we
wind up in a southwesterly prefrontal flow regime. This will also
advect some dewpoints into the waters that will be considerably
higher than the SSTs and sea fog is expected to develop. A cold
front drops in Friday but possibly late enough to not turn winds
quickly enough to preclude another day of marine fog, at very least
for the earlier part of the day. Possibly a moot point though as the
front lifts back to the north over the weekend and the SW winds
keeps dewpoints high and the possibly of compromised visibilities
continues. With all of these fetch-interrupting fronts swell energy
will be minimal locally, the longer period waves remaining well out
to sea. Wind waves should thus have trouble ever exceeding the 2-4
ft range most most of the earlier part of the period. Over the
weekend a more steady uptick in dominant wave height could occur as
a longer SSW fetch becomes established but still not expecting any
headlines.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM