247
FXUS62 KILM 241029
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
629 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast
  area.

- 2) Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week,
  with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later
  this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of
the forecast area.

Latest surface analysis shows a weak front draped across the
forecast area, cutting through roughly from Florence, SC up through
Elizabethtown, NC. A couple of isolated showers have popped up near
this boundary during the overnight hours, but the majority of the
area remains quiet for now.

Throughout today, this front will try to drift a little more
southward towards the coast, but likely stalling out before it gets
there. Meanwhile, a broad upper low spinning over the Great Lakes,
Ontario, and Quebec has a wide trough axis that comes all the way
down into the Carolinas. This axis will continue to deepen slightly,
and move eastward into the local forecast area. The bulk of the
vorticity is locked way up north, but shortwaves within the trough
will allow for some extra forcing later in the day.

The seabreeze will allow for initial convection to kickoff sometime
around 1-2 PM EDT this afternoon just inland from the coast. The
frontal boundary and the forcing aloft will act to exacerbate storms
aided by their outflows. Along the eastern half of the forecast
area, dewpoints well into the 70s will promote buoyancy, going hand-
in-hand with the moderately strong instability in play. Effective
shear parameters also look a bit more convincing in the coastal
areas, generally 30-40 kts.

Overall, scattered storms expected near the coast this afternoon,
gradually pushing inland with the outflows. Strong to severe storms
are possible, particularly with damaging winds and perhaps a brief
spin-up tornado. A "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/5) of severe
weather possible east of I-95.

Storms should start coming down by sunset.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of
this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by
later this week.

Temperatures should remain rather even keeled this week. Highs each
day hover somewhere in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Only a few
isolated spots may hit heat indices in the triple digits at times,
and thankfully, no advisory-level heat expected this week.

A more organized frontal system comes into play Thursday and Friday,
which may stall out near the coast over the weekend. As a result,
more appreciable rain and thunderstorm chances look to come to
fruition. Precipitable water (PWAT) values hit 2 inches again,
pointing towards a tropical atmosphere (minus the tropical storm
part). The drought continues across the area, and this may afford
more opportunities to keep chipping away at it.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR after morning restrictions clear up, mainly at KLBT.
Then there will be restrictions in afternoon storms with highest
coverage at coastal terminals. There is a threat for damaging
wind gusts in severe storms. Things should largely clear up
after sunset where there could be restrictions, mainly inland,
Monday night.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and
stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is
projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter
parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to
time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...A weak front will move towards the coast today
with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This
boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first
part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front
and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection
has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave
conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north
by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist
through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range
offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as
mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at
times as a result of convection.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB