694
FXUS62 KILM 181841
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
241 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory expanded, now all waters through 00 Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Heat Advisory expected again tomorrow and possibly Monday and
Tuesday.

2) A mid to late week front will bring good rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory expected again tomorrow and
possibly Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Although there is no mid level ridge in
place (the culprit for most of the month) our 850mb temps hovering
around 20C will keep Advisory-worthy heat locked in through Sunday.
Confidence is a bit lower thereafter as cloudiness associated with
convection could temper the heat in places but advisories do seem
possible for at least part of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A mid to late week front will bring good rain
chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A large upper low develops north of NY on Wednesday in a
pattern that looks less July-ish. This will push a bona fide
front into and eventually through the region. With all of the
heat and humidity in place ahead of the front`s arrival the
stage should be set for fairly widespread convection Wednesday
and Thursday and possibly Friday as well should the boundary
linger. WPC even has NC zones in a Slight for excessive
rainfall, hopefully leading to some drought relief.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail, especially outside of any convection
that develops this afternoon/early evening. VCTS possible initially
at KMYR/KCRE along a resultant seabreeze. Late this afternoon and
early evening could be a few storms in the vicinity of KLBT?KFLO. SW-
Sly winds are expected to be gusty at times, especially the coastal
terminals this afternoon and early evening. Any storms will
gradually dissipate with the loss of heating, with additional storms
expected by Sunday afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
are expected mainly across North Carolina between late Sunday
afternoon and Monday night with brief periods of MVFR-IFR
restrictions possible. Chances for these restrictions are lower
in SC due to anticipated lesser storm coverage. Forecast storm
chances decrease on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving a low risk for
transient MVFR-IFR restrictions in convection. There is a potential
for an uptick in convection again on Thursday with some restrictions
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Thursday... The gradient tightens in the very near
term between the Bermuda High and a strengthening Piedmont trough.
SCA now in effect for all waters through 00Z Monday. Confidence a
little lower thereafter as the trough may weaken, but winds could
stay close to advisory thresholds for an extended period of time. An
even larger surge in winds/seas is slated for Wednesday and Thursday
ahead of a cold front. And although not expressly depicted in our
forecasts just yet but seas larger than 6 ft appear possible.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB