162
FXUS62 KILM 010611
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
211 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will continue through today, but a cold front
arriving this evening will widespread showers and thunderstorms
following by cooler weather for this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Even though convective coverage has been elevated the last few days
on account of a weakness in the mid level height field today should
see an even more pronounced uptick in coverage. This is due to a
cold front dropping into the area, now faster than progged, the
boundary benefiting from daytime instability. As such some of the
storms could approach severe criteria. SWODY1 highlights the entire
area in MRGL for isolated wet microbursts and the introduction of a
SLIGHT was discussed and so still possible (instability not lacking,
the overall shear magnitude the modulating factor). Temps and
dewpoints pretty similar to yesterday so heat advisory heat indices
will be the exception and not the rule so once again no headlines
planned esp with faster timing of cold front. The entire area is
highlighted by WPC for MRGL in the excessive rain outlook-but the
best chances may wind up being over the southern half of the CWA
where the prefrontal moisture persists the longest though admittedly
dewpoints don`t drop immediately with FROPA. POPs then decrease
tonight esp after 06Z in the post-frontal cool and dry
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging responsible for the heat we endured for much of
the second half of July will be replaced this weekend by a longwave
trough. Cooler and somewhat drier air will advect southward across
the Carolinas behind a surface cold front which should be located
near Savannah, GA at sunrise Saturday. The 850 mb front will trail a
couple hundred miles behind the surface front, but even after 850 mb
winds shift northeasterly during the day Saturday there won`t be any
sudden drying given the long back-trajectory across the Atlantic
Ocean, now approaching its climatological peak in temperature.

For this reason the forecast will remain rather wet on Saturday,
especially near the coast south of Cape Fear, given precipitable
water still over 2.0 inches plus moderate convective instability for
both surface and elevated parcels. Model blend QPF is about a
quarter inch in Wilmington, a third of an inch in Myrtle Beach, but
less than one-tenth of an inch along the I-95 corridor.

Low pressure should begin to take shape 100-200 miles east of Cape
Fear Saturday night along the stalled cold front. Impetus for
cyclogenesis appears to be shortwave energy exiting the coast, a
favorably positioned 250 mb jet streak across the Mid Atlantic
region, and modest but seasonally-impressive low level temperature
contrasts along the front. The low will move away from the coast and
aside from an increase in coastal winds may not have a considerable
influence on our sensible weather.

Even on Sunday despite the low pressing farther offshore it`s still
possible considerable shower activity could persist near the South
Carolina coast generated mainly from elevated instability. Surface
dewpoints will slip into the 60s which will erode away much of the
surface-based instability we`ve had up through Saturday. Interior
portions of the Pee Dee region and much of southeastern North
Carolina may finally dry out after periods of showers and storms for
several days.

Below normal temperatures are expected Saturday through Sunday with
daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to near 70. It may even become cool enough to break the long string
of consecutive nights with 70+ degree temperatures in Wilmington.
Saturday should be day 59 of this summer`s run of 70+ lows so we`ll
be closely watching Sunday morning`s low temperature here.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The longwave trough over the Mississippi Valley will weaken
Tuesday into Wednesday but should remain a weakness between 500
mb ridges located over the western Atlantic and the Desert
Southwest even into Thursday. The surface front should make it
as far south as Jacksonville, FL on Monday but will become
weaker and more diffuse with time as the airmass modifies over
mid 80s ocean water on the north side of the boundary.

The key field to look at for next week is 700 mb wind which shows a
connection to the Gulf throughout the period. Northeasterly surface
winds should veer more easterly next week, even southeasterly at
times with the diurnal seabreezes, bringing in low-level moisture as
well. While there may not be strong forcing available, deep moisture
and passing 500 mb disturbances in SW flow aloft should help produce
occasional showers and thunderstorms through the period.

Daytime highs should rebound into the mid 80s, still a bit below
normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will range from around
70 inland to the mid 70s on the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today at all terminals
due to the arrival of a cold front. Confidence is high enough to
have rain in predominant weather, not too common for early August.
Embedded thunderstorms will be more spotty and still relegated to
PROBs, though if timing becomes more apparent at some point even
predominant thunder may be introduced especially since storms will
lead to variable/gusty winds and considerable vsby restrictions.
Precipitation coverage and intensity will wane quickly from north to
south towards the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Showers and storm still expected  through as a
cold front  stalls just south of the area.  Even as this front
washes out thereafter there will be enough lingering moisture for
unsettled weather and possibly some light fog late in the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Changes forthcoming this period from the long
standing conditions that have been in place for quite some
time. Not looking for any big increase in wind speeds through
the gradual frontal veering. With the swell energy so weak the
wind waves will dominate.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...The cold front should be near
Savannah, GA at sunrise Saturday and north to northeast winds
will be in place along the Carolina coastline. Low pressure is
expected to develop 100-200 miles east of Cape Fear Saturday
night which will create a stronger northeasterly surge which
could push wind speeds over 20 knots late Saturday night through
early Monday. It`s possible this could raise sea heights to
near six feet which would require a Small Craft Advisory.
Outside of the weather concerns posed by winds and seas, plenty
of Atlantic moisture will remain behind the front likely
creating waves of showers and even a few thunderstorms over the
coastal waters, especially south of Cape Fear. Model projections
suggest it could be a washout from the Grand Strand beaches
southward Saturday into the first part of Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
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LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MBB
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