870
FXUS62 KILM 200530
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
130 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to bring dry conditions and summer like
temps through early next week. This high pressure finally breaks
down by next Tuesday, allowing for a frontal system with
increased rain chances to slowly approach and possibly stall
across the region during the mid to late week period of next
week. Temperatures continue to be unseasonably warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Warm temperatures continue with high pressure offshore and a
ridge to our south. Boundary layer winds remain elevated again
tonight and we are unlikely to see fog development outside of
shallow ground fog in areas that are sheltered or dominated by
peaty soil. Lows in the lower 60s.

Copy and paste on Sunday plus a degree or two inland. Highs in
the mid and upper 80s, cooler behind a healthy sea breeze near
the coast. Skies will be mostly clear outside of fair weather
cumulus and high clouds mainly west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and warm forecast continues under surface high pressure
and mid-level ridging just offshore. More cirrus clouds stream
in, but doesn`t play much of a role in the sensible weather.
Lows Sunday night in the upper 50s to near 60 become the lower
60s Monday night. Highs Monday won`t have a problem getting well
into the low-to-mid 80s. Differential heating between land and
water allows for a healthy seabreeze to kick up in the
afternoon, which caps the highs at the immediate coast to the
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper low in the Great Lakes region pushes northeastward
into Ontario and Quebec, which pushes the mid-level ridging
further south towards the Florida Atlantic coast. Lingering
trough energy from the low helps push a weak cold front towards
the area Tuesday, before stalling out through at least Thursday.
Moisture parameters look rather impressive, but the associated
forcing and shear vorticity is lackluster. Rain chances are on
the rise, particularly by Wednesday and Thursday, where the
forcing looks best (such that it is). Scattered showers and
storms are possible in the afternoon, resembling more of a
summertime pattern. Old frontal boundary may try to lift
northward as a warm front sometime late next week or towards the
weekend. This brings down the rain chances slightly, but not
zero. Temperatures hold steady, with highs in the mid-to-upper
80s inland, upper 70s at the coast with the seabreeze. Lows each
night in the low-to-mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 06z TAF period. Intermittent
high clouds through TAF period, move abundant during overnight
hours and more scattered during the day Sunday. Relatively light
south-southwest winds through Sunday night, with a slight
increase in southerly winds at coastal terminals with afternoon
sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Moderate confidence in VFR through Monday,
with exception of possible patchy fog early Monday morning.
Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions beginning
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Offshore high pressure maintains SW winds
through Sunday. Winds turn southerly during the afternoon as a
sea breeze develops, gusts near the coast to 20 knots. Winds
will generate a steady 2-3 foot wind wave.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Benign marine conditions
continue, with SSW winds at 10-15 kts likely through Wednesday
night. By Thursday, winds will try to back to the southeast.
Seas stay locked in at 1-3 ft, with more light chop likely
during the seabreeze each afternoon. Outside of wind waves, a
southeasterly swell clocks in at 7-9 seconds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...IGB/21