969
FXUS62 KILM 081832
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
232 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for SE NC and NE SC
beaches for this evening`s high tide (~6pm), as well as along
the Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington (~8:30pm high
tide). The aviation section was updated for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier weather initially, then warmer with rain chances
returning during the week.

2) Surf hazards will continue through the remainder of today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier weather initially, then warmer with rain
chances returning during the week.

Ridging aloft, currently from the Central Plains into the MS
Valley, will build across the Southeast U.S. during Wednesday.
This pattern will keep the column mostly dry along with surface
high pressure that will be far off the NC coast at this time.
The H5 ridge will shift off the coast during Thursday with weak
return flow allowing the higher PWAT environment to the south to
spread northward again. During Thursday will maintain the
highest PoPs across the SC zones (40-60%) with some across the
NC zones (20-40%). The high PWATs will continue across the
forecast area through the weekend with a front potentially
stalling/weakening across the area this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Surf hazards will continue through the
remainder of today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Ely winds will continue to result
in rip currents, mainly for the E facing beaches, and a moderate
to strong longshore current for the S facing beaches. May see
some of these conditions linger into Wednesday, but the fetch
that resulted in these conditions today is projected to be
weaker Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail with a dry column in place and the
low- level trajectory helping to steer any shower activity well
south of the terminals. SCT cumulus will dissipate this evening.
Ely winds are expected at all terminals through today with some
gusts, with light winds on tap tonight.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions continue with
dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning
in convection at times Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Sunday: High pressure off the VA/NC coast will
focus the stronger ENE fetch just south of the South Santee
marine zone with the weaker winds generally north of Cape Fear.
The surface ridge axis will extend nearly E-W into NC tonight
into Wednesday morning allowing for lighter Ely winds. The high
will shift farther offshore during Wednesday into Thursday
allowing for additional veering with the gradient light enough
for winds around 10 kts. An inland trough will become
established by Friday and with high pressure much farther
offshore S-SWly winds will return. More uncertainty exists this
weekend with a front possibly stalling/weakening across the
waters. Seas will be greatest through the remainder of today and
tonight especially across the southern ILM waters, then 3 ft or
less through much of the upcoming period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO/SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP