695
FXUS62 KILM 071820
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
220 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 7 AM Tuesday.
Also, Coastal Flood Advisories were added along all coastal
zones for this afternoon`s high tide cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat
and higher rain chances returning late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and cooler conditions over the next few
days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Sfc high pressure ridging in from
the north through mid week will allow for continued cooler temps
than we`ve seen as of late, with PoPs no higher than around 20%
and confined to far SE areas/offshore. Temps warm a bit into
Thursday as the high pushes offshore with some guidance
supporting 20-30% PoPs inland, but the next good rain chances
(50-60% PoPs) don`t arrive until Friday into the weekend as
better shortwave energy aloft moves through the area. By Friday,
heat indices are likely to return to around 100 degrees once
again with upr-level ridging just off the SE coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR and dry through the 18Z TAF period. Main item of note is
gusty ENE winds up to ~20 kt for the remainder of this aftn.
Winds decrease tonight then rise again as normal daytime
Tuesday, but with little change in direction due to high
pressure still centered off to the north.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with
dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning
in convection Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect through tonight with moderate ENE flow
as sfc high pressure positions off to the north. Decided to
extend the advisory until 7 AM Tuesday as guidance typically
undercuts seas in this regime and they actually already are
running slightly higher than guidance. At that time and
thereafter, the 6 ft seas should be confided to around and
beyond 20 NM. Sub- SCA conditions then for the remainder of the
week as the pressure gradient noticeably slackens.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS