


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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258 FXUS62 KILM 070519 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 119 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather returns during the middle of the week after somewhat drier conditions Monday into Tuesday as the Bermuda High becomes the dominant feature generating local weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The remnants of Chantal are currently near the NC/VA border and are forecasted to open up into a trough later today as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, a moist airmass remains in place in our area courtesy of low-level south-southwest flow around Bermuda high. PWATs are near the climatological mean of 1.7-1.8". Highs today in the mid 90s will combine with dewpoints in the 70s to produce heat indices in the triple digits this afternoon, overall remaining below 105F heat advisory criteria. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into this evening along sea breeze and Piedmont trough with adequate instability present - although warming 500mb temps and weak mid level subsidence will help limit coverage. Mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Forecast area remains on the western periphery of a weak, elongated 5h ridge over the western Atlantic while at the surface Bermuda High dominates. This is somewhat of a typical summertime pattern, but the weaker nature of the 5h ridge and its shifted position will lead to more diurnal convection than is typically seen in the typical summer pattern. Rain chances jump from Tue into Wed as the ridging aloft weakens ahead of an approaching 5h trough. The Piedmont trough is also a bit stronger on Wed, producing a bit more low level convergence. Dynamically there isn`t much difference between either day, no shortwaves of note, just increasing mid-level lapse rates. Even instability and moisture are about the same, right around 3k J/kg of SBCAPE and precipitable water around 2.2". Temperatures will run above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak 5h ridging is pushed farther south by the arrival of an equally weak 5h shortwave trough. The trough is not particularly speedy, taking its time to pass just north of the area Thu and Fri. As the environment remains very moist, precipitable water remains around 2.2" through the end of the weekend, the decrease in heights combined with SBCAPE 2500-3k J/kg each afternoon will contribute to daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Convection will generally be diurnal in nature with storms lingering, but gradually decreasing in coverage, through the evening hours. Overall storm coverage will start decreasing heading into the weekend as the 5h troughing shifts east and weak ridging tries to re-establish itself. Still expect the weekend to be convectively active, but coverage will be closer to high chance instead of the likely to categorical expected on Thu/Fri. Abundance of afternoon cloud cover and convection will keep highs closer to normal, but lows will run above normal. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR is expected to dominate this TAF period with lingering winds hindering fog develop and low stratus associated with the remnants of Chantal moving off to the north. Partly cloudy skies today with few to scattered diurnal cumulus around 4-5 kft. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, along sea breeze and inland Piedmont trough - may add PROB30s back into TAFs with later issuance, but as of now expected coverage will lead to low probs at any given terminal. South-southwest winds 5-10 kts through this evening, with bit of an uptick in speeds at coastal terminals with sea breeze this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Conditions across the local coastal waters will continue to improve as the remnants of Chantal move into the Mid- Atlantic today. Winds out of the southwest around 15 kts through tonight, with slight uptick in speeds this afternoon. Seas 3-5 ft early this morning will continue to lower throughout the day, with 2- 3 ft seas forecasted by late tonight. Southerly swell component will continue to dominate, with a 1-2 ft 7 sec SE swell moving in this afternoon and a persisting 1 ft 15 sec SE swell mixed in. Tuesday through Friday... Bermuda High and Piedmont trough combo, the typical summer duo, will remain fixtures through the upcoming week. Southwest flow over the waters with speeds 10-15 kt, peaking in the afternoon and evening, will be the order. Seas will run 2-3 ft Tue and Wed with a slight increase to 2-4 ft for Thu/Fri. Later in the week the gradient becomes a little more defined with speeds remaining on the higher end of the wind speed range for a longer duration of the day. Seas will be a mix of a southerly wind wave and a southeast swell with neither being particularly dominant. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Latest data from offshore buoys shows the southeast swell continue and still has enough swell energy (4-5ft every 7-8 seconds) to create strong rip currents on the south facing beaches of Brunswick County, NC and the northern half of Horry County, SC. North of Cape Fear a 14-15 second easterly swell, even if it is only 1-2 ft, will be capable of producing strong rip currents especially around the midday low tide. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...VAO MARINE...III/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III