102
FXUS62 KILM 191941
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
341 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected to prevail through the next week as
high pressure remains in control. A warming trend will continue
through midweek before a dry cold front slides through on
Thursday, bringing temperatures closer to normal by the end of
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast is mainly persistence with a very dry air mass in place as
high pressure dominates from the sfc to aloft holding to the west
and north of region. Large cu field shifting closer to the coast,
but should no affect the land areas with anything but a slight
increase in low level moisture. Pcp water values less than a half
inch increase up to .7 inches or so. A few cirrus to the west should
dissipate as minor perturbation topping the upper ridge fizzles out.
Overall, continued dry with clouds remaining just off the coast
leaving a mainly cloudless sky over the forecast area. Continued
with temps from previous shift with only minor adjustments, with
forecast lows in the mid 40s inland to around 50 at the coast.
Traditionally colder and wind sheltered areas will drop even
further with more ideal radiational cooling. High temps for Sunday
should be similar to today with mid low to mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistence forecast through the short term period which is
valid through Tuesday. Surface high pressure will remain
centered over the Appalachians under a highly amplified mid
level pattern. Highs will range from the middle to 70s to near
80 with lows trending from the middle 40s or so to the lower
50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions will persist through the extended period. A dry
cold front will move across Thursday but moisture is almost non
existent. Temperatures will drop off a little with the passage
of the front but guidance has trended a bit warmer with some of
the more recent cycles.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the period, with high pressure resulting in clear skies
and northeast flow. Wind speeds will be a few kts higher at the
coastal terminals late this morning through the afternoon due to an
enhanced gradient, with speeds potentially reaching 12 kts once
mixing gets underway around 14-15Z. Winds will become light tonight,
likely decoupling away from the coast. Confidence is way too low
to include flight restrictions for any fog or low stratus
clouds early Sunday morning. Soundings and time height moisture
profiles show up to 90% RH within the first few hundred ft for
ILM and LBT right around 11 to 13z. I may add sct stratus for
now.


Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Flight restrictions possible
from ground fog possible Sunday night into Monday morning

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...
Marginal Small Craft Advisory in effect mainly for
outer waters north of Cape Fear beyond 15 nm or so. The gradient
flow continues to remain elevated between high pressure extending
down into the Carolinas from the north and low pressure well
offshore drifting to the south. Winds should hold around 15 kts with
gusts to around 20 kts over the local waters, but higher winds and a
long period swell associated with the low farther offshore will help
keep seas in our outer waters slightly higher with some 6 fters.
Otherwise seas will be in the 2 to 5 ft range over most of the
waters in persistent NE flow and and a diminishing longer period
swell up to 12 seconds this afternoon.


Sunday Night through Thursday...
Northeast winds will persist through the period as surface
high pressure will remain in place well to the west. Wind speeds
should remain in a 10-15 knot range. Significant seas will be in a
range of 2-4 feet.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding likely to occur along the immediate coast of
Southeast NC and Northeast SC and along the banks of the lower Cape
Fear River from Wilmington southward through early next week.
Primary occurrence will be the morning through early afternoon
high tides. The high astronomical tides from the recent full
moon and persistent north to northeasterly winds will aid in the
minor coastal flooding.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...