258
FXUS62 KILM 070519
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
119 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather returns during the middle of the week after
somewhat drier conditions Monday into Tuesday as the Bermuda
High becomes the dominant feature generating local weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The remnants of Chantal are currently near the NC/VA border and are
forecasted to open up into a trough later today as it moves across
the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, a moist airmass remains in place in our
area courtesy of low-level south-southwest flow around Bermuda high.
PWATs are near the climatological mean of 1.7-1.8". Highs today in
the mid 90s will combine with dewpoints in the 70s to produce heat
indices in the triple digits this afternoon, overall remaining below
105F heat advisory criteria. Widely scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon into this evening along sea breeze and
Piedmont trough with adequate instability present - although warming
500mb temps and weak mid level subsidence will help limit coverage.
Mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast area remains on the western periphery of a weak, elongated
5h ridge over the western Atlantic while at the surface Bermuda High
dominates. This is somewhat of a typical summertime pattern, but the
weaker nature of the 5h ridge and its shifted position will lead to
more diurnal convection than is typically seen in the typical summer
pattern. Rain chances jump from Tue into Wed as the ridging aloft
weakens ahead of an approaching 5h trough. The Piedmont trough is
also a bit stronger on Wed, producing a bit more low level
convergence. Dynamically there isn`t much difference between either
day, no shortwaves of note, just increasing mid-level lapse rates.
Even instability and moisture are about the same, right around 3k
J/kg of SBCAPE and precipitable water around 2.2". Temperatures will
run above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak 5h ridging is pushed farther south by the arrival of an equally
weak 5h shortwave trough. The trough is not particularly speedy,
taking its time to pass just north of the area Thu and Fri. As the
environment remains very moist, precipitable water remains around
2.2" through the end of the weekend, the decrease in heights
combined with SBCAPE 2500-3k J/kg each afternoon will contribute to
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Convection will generally
be diurnal in nature with storms lingering, but gradually decreasing
in coverage, through the evening hours. Overall storm coverage will
start decreasing heading into the weekend as the 5h troughing shifts
east and weak ridging tries to re-establish itself. Still expect the
weekend to be convectively active, but coverage will be closer to
high chance instead of the likely to categorical expected on
Thu/Fri. Abundance of afternoon cloud cover and convection will keep
highs closer to normal, but lows will run above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected to dominate this TAF period with lingering winds
hindering fog develop and low stratus associated with the remnants
of Chantal moving off to the north. Partly cloudy skies today with
few to scattered diurnal cumulus around 4-5 kft. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, along sea
breeze and inland Piedmont trough - may add PROB30s back into TAFs
with later issuance, but as of now expected coverage will lead to
low probs at any given terminal. South-southwest winds 5-10 kts
through this evening, with bit of an uptick in speeds at coastal
terminals with sea breeze this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible
Tuesday and Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential
early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Conditions across the local coastal waters will continue to
improve as the remnants of Chantal move into the Mid- Atlantic
today. Winds out of the southwest around 15 kts through tonight,
with slight uptick in speeds this afternoon. Seas 3-5 ft early
this morning will continue to lower throughout the day, with 2-
3 ft seas forecasted by late tonight. Southerly swell component
will continue to dominate, with a 1-2 ft 7 sec SE swell moving
in this afternoon and a persisting 1 ft 15 sec SE swell mixed
in.

Tuesday through Friday...
Bermuda High and Piedmont trough combo, the typical summer duo,
will remain fixtures through the upcoming week. Southwest flow
over the waters with speeds 10-15 kt, peaking in the afternoon
and evening, will be the order. Seas will run 2-3 ft Tue and Wed
with a slight increase to 2-4 ft for Thu/Fri. Later in the week
the gradient becomes a little more defined with speeds
remaining on the higher end of the wind speed range for a longer
duration of the day. Seas will be a mix of a southerly wind
wave and a southeast swell with neither being particularly
dominant.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Latest data from offshore buoys shows the
southeast swell continue and still has enough swell energy
(4-5ft every 7-8 seconds) to create strong rip currents on the
south facing beaches of Brunswick County, NC and the northern
half of Horry County, SC. North of Cape Fear a 14-15 second
easterly swell, even if it is only 1-2 ft, will be capable of
producing strong rip currents especially around the midday low
tide.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III