


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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144 FXUS62 KILM 050634 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 234 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances increase this weekend as Tropical Depression Three moves in from the south. More typical summertime weather returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Tropical Depression Three, currently east of southern GA, continues to be ill-defined and meandering off the Southeast coast. TD3 will approach the SC coast late today into tonight, aided by offshore ridge, moving onshore late tonight/early Sunday. The main impacts expected from the system remains heavy rainfall and hazardous surf, regardless of system strength. Tropical moisture begins to spread across the area today, with PWATs greater than 2" moving onshore this morning and covering the area by late afternoon/early evening. Some PVA ahead of TD3, combined with moist atmosphere, will lead to scattered showers during the day today with a focus east of I-95. Forecast has chance of thunder during the day, but with overcast skies and limited instability thunderstorms should be isolated. Biggest threat for heavy rain and isolated flooding will come tonight. PWATs peak around 2.4" as TD3 approaches the SC coast and rain rates increase. Could see 1.5-3", with isolated higher amounts, east of I-95 before dawn Sunday morning. Hazardous surf conditions, due to strong rip currents and high surf, will develop today and persist through Sunday, especially for NE SC beaches. See Coastal section below. The environment isn`t favorable for any significant strengthening of the system, but if it can become a little better organized today it may strengthen into a tropical storm. If the storm does strengthen, it would lead to higher probabilities of tropical storm force winds for our area, particularly coastal NE SC. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday night`s moderate to heavy rain continues into Sunday, as what becomes of current Tropical Depression Three slides north directly into the local area. Weak steering flow and very deep warm cloud layers support the heavy rain potential. Soils are on the dry side and rivers are fairly low which should help limit the flooding threat to a point. A good example was the storms last Wed evening which dropped 5-6" of rain in a short period of time across parts of the forecast area. Only very minor flooding was reported with this event, showing the current conditions can take heavy rain. The caveat would be multiple storms affecting urban areas in rapid succession and/or a focused band leading to rainfall amounts in excess of 6" in a short period of time. Again, not something that would happen on a large scale, but would be possible on a localized scale. Still a lot of uncertainty with any rainfall impact given timing and location unknowns, and no Flood Watch is planned attm. Storm total QPF averages 2-4 inches across the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Following the aforementioned weak tropical system, the local area returns to a more typical summer-time pattern with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms each day due to transient shortwave energy aloft, daily seabreezes, and decent low/mid- level moisture profiles. Expect high temps in the low/mid 90s through the week, with heat indices close to or just shy of Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) each day. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Predominantly VFR through dawn, with patchy MVFR vsbys across the area. MVFR ceilings will begin to move onshore this morning (around 14z) impacting coastal terminals for the rest of the TAF period, as tropical moisture begins to spread across the area. These ceilings may be variable at times during the day, and could see brief periods of VFR, but MVFR is expected to dominate will cloud heights lowering this evening into tonight. Inland terminals will remain VFR during the day, with low ceilings slowly spreading inland later today into tonight. FLO/LBT could see MVFR conditions after 0z. Rain chances increase from east to west during the day, with chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Heavier rain rates are forecasted for tonight, and that is when lower vsbys due to precipitation will be most likely. Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected through Sunday night due to low ceilings as tropical low moves onshore across SC. Intermittent flight restrictions possible Monday through Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Through Tonight...Tropical Depression Three is currently meandering off the Southeast coast, east of GA, approaching the SC coast tonight, potentially as a tropical storm. Conditions will begin to deteriorate early this morning for northeast SC waters as both ENE winds and seas increase. Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect south of Cape Fear, with a Small Craft Advisory north of Cape Fear (AMZ250) where tropical storm force winds are unlikely but seas will be high. Scattered showers during the day today will become heavier and more widespread tonight, and can`t rule out potential for waterspouts overnight as TD3 approaches. Sunday through Wednesday...Strongest winds from the approaching tropical system are expected on Sunday as it makes landfall somewhere over South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch continues over coastal waters south of Cape Fear due to the potential for 34 kt winds, while a SCA is now in effect through Sunday night north of Cape Fear where winds will be weaker. Seas up to 7-9 ft expected, lower north of Cape Fear. Once the system moves in and weakens or exits the area at some point early next week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up through midweek with S-SW flow and seas 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Increasing south-southeasterly fresh swell with wave periods averaging 7-8 seconds will feed onto the beaches today in advance Tropical Depression Three. This wave group should produce a high risk of rip currents at the South Carolina beaches and a moderate risk elsewhere. Conditions should deteriorate further Sunday as the tropical system approaches landfall on the southern South Carolina coast when breaking wave heights in the surf zone could approach 6 feet south of Cape Fear. A High Surf Advisory is now in effect. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ110. SC...Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ054-056. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250. Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...MAS/III LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...