709
FXUS62 KILM 100551
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
151 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated today and Friday.
Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but afternoon
showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated showers will be possible again this morning near the coast.
Activity will then pick up along the sea breeze with greater
coverage into the afternoon and evening. If activity to our west
starts organizing along its outflow and moving towards our area, we
could get some stronger pockets of convection in the late afternoon
and evening, but it will be tough to say exactly when/where due to
the smaller scale processes. The main threat will be isolated
damaging wind gusts. A shortwave will then move across the area
during the evening which could pull more scattered showers into the
area with general drying expected to start around midnight from
inland towards the coast. Activity will then be offshore through the
rest of the night. Highs near 90 with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Region remains under influence of weak mid-level trough Fri with
this feature slowly shifting east for Sat. At the surface both days
will be similar with Bermuda High anchored offshore and the Piedmont
trough across or just west of the western parts of the forecast
area. There is a slight drop in precipitable water Fri to Sat with
values dropping from 2.1"-2.2" Fri to just under 2" Sat. Still high
both days, but the slight drop is due to some weak mid level
subsidence and drying in the wake of the 5h trough. This could lead
to a slight drop in storm coverage from Fri to Sat, but the
environment remains favorable for storm development. So while
coverage may decrease a bit Sat, do not expect to see a big
difference. Although there will be plenty of moisture and more
robust storms will have the potential for high rainfall rates, not
much of a flooding concern for now. Storm motions will be around
15mph, so unless multiple storms move across the same location in a
short duration, residence time for a given storm over any one area
will be low. The caveat to this will be if the same areas experience
heavy rains for multiple days, then a single storm could pose more
of an issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term looks rather unsettled with daily rounds of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface trough or front
will be in the area each day while Bermuda High remains parked
offshore. Although weak mid-level ridging does start building over
the Deep South and Southeast next week, subsidence takes a while to
develop. In fact forecast soundings don`t really show any sign of
subsidence in the mid-levels through Wed. There also remains an
abundance of deep moisture with precipitable water generally around
125% of normal through the middle of next week. Hard to single out
any one day as being favored for convection given the lack of well
defined surface features and minimal support aloft. Rain chances on
any day could range from 40% to 60% given the environment`s
potential. Northwest flow is in place Sun into Tue morning which
suggests at least the potential for an MCS at some point during the
first half of the forecast period. Highs will be in the lower 90s
early dropping into the upper 80s by the middle of next week. Lows
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No showers expected to impact terminals until the morning. Main
focus for tonight will be mainly stratus + possible fog inland with
impacts expected to be MVFR with IFR possible. Coastal terminals
will experience morning showers again with a general increase in
coverage for all terminals into the afternoon. Main impact will be
MVFR/IFR visibility in heavier pockets of rain.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Some showers with isolated thunder will be possible near the
coast this morning with coverage generally expanding into the
afternoon/evening. SW winds will pick up to 15-18 kts in the
afternoon as the PG increases between the Bermuda High offshore
and low pressure inland. Seas will increase to ~4 ft in the
afternoon with the increased SW wind wave and a SE 2-3 ft 7
second swell.


Friday through Monday...
Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow into next week. A
surface trough moves closer to the coast for the weekend,
loosening the gradient a bit which knocks speeds from a solid 15
kt Fri afternoon to 10-15 kt Sat-Mon. Seas 3-4 ft Fri trend
closer to 3 ft Sat and 2- 3 ft Sun/Mon in response to the
decreased wind speeds. A southerly wave will be the dominant
wave with period around 7 seconds, a wind wave transitioning to
more of a swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...III/LEW