188
FXUS62 KILM 221141
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
641 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures will continue through Saturday night.
High pressure will then move off the coast early next week bringing
warmer temperatures. A passing cold front and another storm
system are likely to impact the area mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes are necessary from the ongoing forecast with
this update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent mid-level trough will pivot across the region today with
the lowest 500mb heights expected to cross overhead this afternoon.
This will result in chilly high temperatures only reaching the low
to mid 50s, which are near to a few degrees below our coldest normal
highs in the mid-upper 50s in mid-January. As the cold core of the
trough passes overhead today, expect a mix of clouds and sun this
afternoon as stratocumulus clouds accompany its passage. Behind the
trough late this afternoon and evening, any clouds will shift away
or dissipate as heights rise and a robust subsidence inversion
scours out low-level moisture. Thus, a clear night is in store with
dew points holding in the upper 20s to low 30s. The pressure
gradient is expected to slacken from southwest to northeast as high
pressure builds in while surface low pressure over the Northeast
gradually pulls away to the northeast. The result will be a general
decrease in winds through the night, with some areas in the Pee Dee
region likely to go calm. This supports patchy frost in sheltered
areas and areas near bodies of water, where dew points are locally
higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Dry with below to near normal temperatures
*Frost/freeze possible inland Sat night

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:

Troughing to start the period will quickly give way to more ridging
which means increasing temperatures, diminishing winds and a
continuation of dry conditions. Temps should fall into the mid 30s
across most inland areas Saturday night meaning some frost will be
possible. Can`t even rule out some spots hitting freezing as well if
radiational cooling gets maximized. Note however that the need for a
Frost Advisory or Freeze Watch/Warning will be predicated on whether
the growing season ends before this. On Sunday, temperatures should
climb back to near normal levels in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights:
*Above normal temps through at least early week
*A cold front and another storm system could bring cooler temps and
showers mid week

*Moderate to High through Mon night
*Low to Moderate starting Tue

Details:

High pressure will be shifting offshore bringing warmer temps and
slowly increasing moisture levels. A cold front looks to approach
Tuesday and possibly move through Tuesday night. Rain chances should
be pretty low due to limited moisture/forcing with this front,
although can`t rule out at least a few showers. This front should
return back north as a warm front into or through the area Wednesday
night ahead of another more potent storm system approaching from the
west. Moisture and forcing appear more abundant with this system and
thus rain chances should be greater, although some uncertainty
remains regarding rain timing/amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the period. Gusty winds are the primary concern
today as the boundary layer grows, permitting gusty winds
reaching 20-25 kts during the afternoon. Gusty winds will
subside during the evening with the loss of heating, but expect
continued steady westerly winds through tonight.

Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday as
high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of restrictions
later Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Gusty winds will
remain a concern through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... After a temporary lull in winds this morning with
speeds below SCA criteria, a resurgence in wind is expected this
afternoon with gusts increasing to 25-30 kts, and these will
continue through tonight. Seas will hold in the 2-4 ft range across
much of the waters except for higher waves reaching around 5 ft in
the outer coastal waters offshore of Cape Fear.

Saturday through Tuesday...Expect improving conditions this weekend
as high pressure builds in leading to a weaker pressure gradient.
Small Craft Advisory conditions could linger into Saturday morning
but otherwise no major wind/sea concerns are expected, although
winds will pick up a bit Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/ABW