983
FXUS62 KILM 192318
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
718 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will stall near the coast through the rest of the
day before it washes out tonight. Hurricane Erin is expected to
remain far enough offshore to keep substantial wind and rain
impacts away, but will still bring dangerous surf to the
beaches for much of the work week. Rain chances increase over
the weekend as a cold front stalls south of the area and
moisture increases. Another cold front is expected to approach
from the northwest late in the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes made to the public/marine forecasts. New
aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Front stalled just inland from the coast being held in place by the
considerable differential heating between coastal sun and inland
stratus. The subtle wind shift along this boundary will be the focus
for what will be very minor coverage of showers and storms in the
Cape Fear, Grand Strand, and Pee Dee regions this afternoon. Rain-
free tonight as the boundary washes out. After an initially mostly
clear night clouds associated with Erin into coastal areas while it
looks like inland areas will see another round of low stratus
advect in from the NE. Erin makes its closes approach to the area
Wednesday, remaining 300 miles east of ILM. Local effects will be
confined to the beaches...our latest briefings available on the web.
A few showers could scrape the coast depending on Erin`s moisture
distribution as it passes our latitude (it has gone through
considerable changes today) but we remain well enough outside of the
storm to preclude a tropical tornado threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will encompass our conditions due to Erin as
it approaches. It looks to be closest Wednesday night where it will
start its NE turn by Thursday morning. Worst impacts will be felt at
our beaches, predominantly the east and southeast facing ones as
they`ll be hit by Erin`s swells head on. Rough surf and strong rip
currents are expected at all area beaches through the majority of
the day Thursday until Erin pulls away and waves take a bit longer
to respond.

Other than that, it should be mostly dry as dry air wraps around
Erin into our area. Higher PWATs may linger in NE SC where isolated
activity may be possible Thursday. Highs near 90 with lows in the
lower to mid 70s more near 70 Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain chances will increase day to day, primarily in the
afternoon/evenings, through the weekend as a cold front approaches
the area and moisture recovers somewhat. Highs will be noticeably
cooler pushing thunder chances to the coast as a departing high may
form a coastal trough just offshore. The front should push through
sometime late Monday with drier conditions shaping up for the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Moderate to high confidence overall for the 00Z/20 TAF period.
Main concern is low clouds late tonight into Wed, and possibly
some fog late tonight (mainly at KFLO/KLBT/KCRE). Highest
confidence is for MVFR cigs, mainly 09-14Z, with low to
moderate confidence for IFR cigs. There is a low risk for mainly
showers this evening at all terminals, mainly inland at
KFLO/KLBT, and again Wed aftn, mainly near the coast at
KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

Extended Outlook... Gusty winds and intermittent clouds and some
showers will be possible through midweek between high pressure to
the north and Hurricane Erin to the east. A cold front will
approach the area later this week with increased rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Erin swells defining the near term with 15-16
second swells the dominant wave. These swells will build through the
near term and slightly beyond, attaining the largest values from
Cape Fear northward in part due to bathymetry. The wind forecast is
a bit less certain than the seas forecast due again to the storms
asymmetric structure (i.e. how well defined will the PG be on the
western semicircle) but a few gusts to gale seem possible. SCA still
sufficient, driven by the huge seas anyway.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Erin should be closest Wednesday
night where it will start its NE turn by Thursday morning. The SE
swell will be maximized at this time with 10-15 ft Cape Fear north
and 7-11 ft Cape Fear south through NE SC at 14-26 seconds. Rough
surf and strong rip currents expected at all area beaches through
the majority of the day Thursday until Erin pulls away and waves
start to catch up. The long period swell will continue to plague our
waters but dropping to a more manageable 2-4 ft by the weekend. NE
winds ~25 kts with near but sub-gale gusts will come around to the
NW through Thursday, winds starting to drop in speed Thursday night.
NE to onshore winds will then be ~10-15 kts through the end of the
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear
River during the late afternoon and evening high tide cycles
into late week, basically within a 3 hour window centered on
high tide. May also see minor coastal flooding during the
morning high tides. Minor coastal flooding is also expected
along the SE NC and NE SC coasts into late week, mainly during
the evening high tides.

Runup from large waves associated with Hurricane Erin could also
result in some beach erosion and ocean overwash in vulnerable
coastal locations such as those without protective dunes.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of rip currents is expected through
Friday as large swells from Hurricane Erin impact the coast.

HIGH SURF: A High Surf Advisory is in effect for dangerously
rough surf with 6+ foot breaking wave heights for much of the
SE NC and NE SC coasts, especially east to southeast-facing
beaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...