Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
657 FXUS62 KILM 110915 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 515 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances lowered slightly for Friday evening and increased slightly for Saturday. Confidence in potential for a heat advisory Friday has increased slightly. Updated 12Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well above normal through Sunday with heat indices over 100 degrees possible each day. 2) Limited rain chances until the arrival of a cold front this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well above normal through Sunday with heat indices over 100 degrees possible each day. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Combination of limited cloud cover and building 5h ridge will lead to temperatures well above normal this afternoon. Dewpoints will be held in check by low level dry air, keeping humidity 40-45% outside of the sea breeze influence. This will help temper the heat index a bit, with most areas flirting with a heat index around 100. Warming continues Fri resulting in what will be the hottest day of the year thus far. Partial thickness and 850 temps support triple digit heat for portions of inland NC with upper 90s just about everywhere else. Heat will even push near the coast. Forecast soundings show westerly flow in the low levels, keeping the sea breeze in check until late in the day, and even then it will struggle to make much headway west. Forecast soundings continue to show low level dry air, but even with the lower dewpoints, temperatures 10+ degree above normal may end up warranting a heat advisory. Ridging weakens slightly for the weekend with an increase in both cloud cover and storm coverage, especially Sat, leading to slightly cooler conditions. The key to any heat related products over the weekend will be dewpoints. Current forecast has parts of the area flirting with heat index in excess of 105, but depth of mixing and amount of dry air will both be crucial in determining how far into the 70s dewpoints go and if heat products are needed. This is something that will need to be nailed down in subsequent forecasts. KEY MESSAGE 2...Limited rain chances until the arrival of a cold front this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Forecast area will be under the influence of mid-level ridging into the weekend, which will really limit coverage of afternoon convection. Even with the abundance of SBCAPE, approaching 2k this afternoon and 3k in places Fri afternoon, the overall environment remains rather unfavorable. Mid- level subsidence, dry air and lapser rates under 6 C/km today suggest any deeper convection that tries to initiate along the sea breeze and Piedmont trough will struggle and dissipate quickly. Forecast soundings for Fri show a slight improvement in mid-level lapse rates, but subsidence and dry air remain a significant obstacle. Wouldn`t be shocked to see a slight increase in coverage along the sea breeze and Piedmont trough Fri, especially given the abundance of SBCAPE, but coverage will still be in the neighborhood of 20-30%. Most areas will remain dry and free of storms. Worth noting some of the global models show a weak shortwave moving around the northeast side of the ridge Fri. The location and timing of this feature (if it exists) will have a role in storm development. If it`s early, post wave subsidence will prevent storms, but if it`s later in the day it could tap into the abundance of SBCAPE. Best chance for rain is still going to be Sat/Sun. The ridging aloft starts to weaken, but has enough of a presence to keep temperatures above normal. The resulting 2k-3k J/KG of SBCAPE will have a slightly less hostile environment to work with, but will also have enhanced low level convergence thanks to the arrival of a weak cold front. Not much forcing with the front on Sat, but Sun it looks like there will be a weak surface wave moving along the front. Worth noting that lingering mid-level dry air and the inverted V sounding (low level dry air) present the next several days any stronger convection would have the potential to produce strong, damaging wind gusts. Minimal coverage Thu/Fri limits the potential, but increased coverage on Sat could lead to more of a threat. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. An isolated pop-up storm may be possible in the afternoon but impacts to terminals should be brief if any. Southwest winds ~10 kts with a sea breeze in the afternoon making winds southerly at the coastal terminals, gusts ~20 kts possible. A breeze should remain overnight so not anticipating restrictions then either. Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR possible in isolated afternoon/evening storms Friday. Increased coverage of storms this weekend will increase potential for restrictions at all sites. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... Bermuda High offshore through the end of the week ends up displaced a little farther south of its normal position for the weekend by a subtle shift in the mid-level flow. The high ensures southwest flow continues into next week, despite the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Without a strong 5h trough driving the front south the offshore high will be able to keep the front from reaching the waters. Very warm inland temperatures will enhance southwest flow in the afternoon and evening each day. The only exception will be Sat when the front ends up weakening the gradient. Outside of Sat speeds will be 15-20 kt near shore with potential for 25 kt beyond 20 nm at times. Seas 2-3 ft building to a solid 3 ft in the afternoon through Fri before falling to around 2 ft Sat due to the collapsed gradient. Seas build early next week following the increase in southerly flow. && .CLIMATE... Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which may reach record highs. The hottest day is expected to be Friday, but Sunday may reach similar levels. The high temp records for each climate site are provided below for these dates (June 12 and 14). Location Jun 12 Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 98 (1920) 99 (1958) Lumberton, NC: 103 (1911) 101 (2015) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 96 (2016) 98 (2010) Florence, SC: 97 (2022) 102 (1958) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW KEY MESSAGES...III DISCUSSION...III AVIATION...LEW MARINE...III