749
FXUS62 KILM 220936
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
536 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

Heat Advisory in effect for eastern portions of the area.
Guidance is generally coming into agreement on at least northern
portions of the forecast area seeing showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the incoming cold front arrive on Thursday afternoon or
evening, with heavy showers and storms developing across the
rest of the area on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot weather continues today with the highest heat indices in
eastern portions of the forecast area.

2) Slow-moving cold front will bring periods of heavy showers and
thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and Saturday night, with an
attendant risk for localized flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot weather continues today with the highest heat
indices in eastern portions of the forecast area.

Similar to yesterday, a ribbon of enhanced low to mid-level moisture
is expected to pass over the area which should help encourage the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the sea breeze during the morning. However, the timing of this
moisture plume`s passage is earlier in the day, with the highest
precipitable water values expected to move offshore by midday while
a tongue of drier air slides in from the southwest. While this drier
air will reduce the chances for showers and storms during the
afternoon, isolated activity cannot be ruled out as the sea breeze
shifts inland and troughing aloft makes for a slightly less hostile
environment.

The aforementioned moisture should help eastern portions of the area
keep their dew points higher for longer this morning, and with a
warm start in the 80-84F range and dew points in the mid-upper 70s,
reaching or exceeding a 105F heat index appears likely within
the advisory area, even if a brief shower or storm passes
overhead.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Slow-moving cold front will bring periods of heavy
showers and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and Saturday
night, with an attendant risk for localized flash flooding.

Although the trend has been for a slower arrival of this cold front,
various guidance tools and cluster analysis appear to be coming to a
consensus that at least northern portions of the forecast area will
see showers and storms associated with this front arrive Thursday
afternoon or evening and continue gradually southeastward overnight.
There is also some signal for a more active sea breeze or confluence
zone to form near the coast and produce a separate area of showers
and storms ahead of the main frontal band of precip on Thursday,
but this carries low confidence. Unsettled conditions featuring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms appear likely
on Friday through Saturday night as the front stalls near the
coast. Guidance tools now suggest an amplification of the
jetstream pattern will force the cold front offshore on Sunday,
although the shortwave helping to do this may be well-timed to
produce additional isolated to scattered showers and storms on
Sunday as the air behind the front is not much drier or cooler.

Although drought conditions across the area have made for very
thirsty soils, the presence of precipitable water values in the 2.1-
2.4" range, which is about 120-140% of normal for this time of year
and supportive of rain rates in excess of 2"/hr, and the fact that
very dry soils often become less receptive to rainfall both
point towards a risk for localized flash flooding where heavy
showers and storms track over the same areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR stratus will be in and out through the morning before
lifting in the afternoon, TEMPO added at all sites for patchy
coverage. TEMPOS also include the possibility of late
morning/early afternoon storms at coastal terminals, with gusty
winds, IFR VSBYs, and more solid MVFR CIGs possible. Strong SW winds
continue with gusts 20-25kts in the morning and 30 kts near the
coast in the afternoon. Gustiness may diminish towards 00Z but
there`s uncertainty as a cold front approaches which could bring
more predominant restrictions. Have added PROB30s for inland
terminals at the end of the period.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to
storms remains possible through late Sat, most numerous in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Wednesday through Monday...Breezy southwest winds will continue
through today ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in Small
Craft Advisory conditions with the strongest winds close to
shore. Wind gusts around 25 kts may linger beyond the current
SCA end time in the waters between Surf City and Cape Fear, but
will allow a future forecast update to make the final call on
extending the advisory. Otherwise, winds weaken tonight into
Thursday as the cold front drifts in from the north and stalls
along or inland of the coast by early Friday. Guidance now
suggests the front should be pushed offshore by early Sunday,
resulting a short period of northwesterly winds on Sunday before
the flow weakens to 10 kts or less from Sunday afternoon
through Monday.

Elevated seas in the 4-6 ft range this morning are expected to fall
slightly to 3-5 ft this afternoon, then diminish to 2 to 4 ft on
Thursday as winds weaken. Periods of scattered to numerous heavy
showers and storms are anticipated due to the front, mainly between
Friday and early Sunday, creating hazardous conditions for small
craft in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ054-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ABW