230
FXUS62 KILM 220031
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
731 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder end to the week expected behind a cold front, with below
normal temperatures continuing through Saturday. High pressure
will move off the coast early next week with warmer temperatures
expected. A weaker cold front moves through toward mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Winds are lulling a bit with sunset but still expecting the
overnight cold push to bring wind speeds back up. In the meantime,
some temperatures here and there where winds have died down are
coming in a bit cooler than forecasted due to radiational
cooling. These should fall back in line as winds pick up and
some clouds move through overnight. Updated aviation discussion
below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep upper trough will provide another surge of cold, dry air
advection this evening with a dry cold front leading the way.
This front will push through the region before midnight and
initially lead to a surge in surface winds this evening (a few
gusts up to 20 mph possible near the coast). Winds will
gradually weaken thereafter, but with little change in the
surface pressure gradient, and the base of the upper low
overhead, expect surface winds to remain elevated. Boundary
layer wind forecasts indicate wind speeds up to 15 knots through
sunrise Friday. In addition to the

A combination of winds and brief cloud cover after midnight
should prevent widespread freezing temperatures. A couple of
areas could be the exception to the overwhelming majority such
as Holly Shelter, portions of northern Pender, and portions of
extreme western Marlboro County. Elsewhere, expect lows between
33-35 and 35-38 near the coast. Patchy frost will be possible in
sheltered areas and low lying areas near water bodies where dew
points will be inflated.

Remaining breezy on Friday and becoming winter-like. Highs only
in the lower 50s and gusts during the afternoon up to 20 mph.
Some upper level clouds are possible early in the day as a
result of NW flow along the Appalachians.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry wx all but guaranteed this period with the main story being
the below normal temps with some lingering low-level CAA,
before high pressure builds in for early next week. Expect low
temps in the mid to upr 30s most areas both nights expect lwr
40s at the coast. Cannot rule out patchy frost but with marginal
temps and some wind esp. Fri night not expecting it to be
particularly widespread. During the day Sat, temps will only
max out around 60 degrees...about five degrees below normal for
late November.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
General theme this period is continued dry weather and a return
to more seasonable temps. Highs in the mid 60s Sun climb to the
lwr 70s Mon and Tue as sfc high pressure slides offshore.
Guidance is in good agreement on a weak, dry cold fropa mid
week which will be followed by a return to highs in the 60s for
Wed and Thu with generally light wind.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Wind speeds are beginning to
decrease with sunset but some occasionally higher gusts are
still possible as a second front moves through. Winds may start
to go calm towards dawn but then they`ll increase after sunrise
with NW winds gusting 20-25 kts during the day. Could see some
scattered 5 kft clouds move through during the morning/afternoon
Friday.

Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through the period as high
pressure maintains control. Gusty winds will be the only
concern through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Winds are still gusting to 25 knots for much
of the nearshore waters although a break in the gradient and
weaker marine boundary layer means that some of these gusts have
been periodic. A cold front will push offshore after midnight
and bring another surge of gusts overnight. Expect widespread
gusts up to 30 knots and seas building to 3-5 feet. Gusts remain
elevated on Friday as the pressure gradient remains nearly
constant. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through
Friday night.

Friday night through Tuesday...Marine conditions improving this
period following the SCA for frequent 25-30 kt gusts Fri night.
Sfc high pressure builds south of the area this weekend then
moves offshore early next week keeping winds no higher than
10-15 kt and sub-SCA wave heights as well.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/21