139
FXUS62 KILM 052333
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
733 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth will persist through Sunday. A cold front
will bring heavy rain and the chance for thunderstorms late
Sunday through Monday. High pressure will bring cooler, drier
air Tuesday into mid next week. Rain chances may increase
towards the end of next week due to another frontal system.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes made to the public/marine forecasts. The aviation
forecast update follows below. Expecting another unseasonably
warm night with lows mainly in the mid 60s along with a decent
southerly breeze.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period represents the proverbial calm before the storm as the
area resides between high pressure offshore and a cold front
approaching from the west.  Generally expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies with continued warm and humid conditions for the season. Lows
tonight will fall to the mid to upper 60s with highs Sunday in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main story for the short term will be active weather due to a
cold front moving through the area. Rain chances will start to move
into our inland areas late Sunday night with a general expanding
from NW to SE through Monday. PWATs 1.5-2" and some deep CAPE could
support heavy rain as the line of showers moves through with the
front. As for severe weather, showers arriving early inland should
inhibit instability for those areas. Meanwhile, coastal areas should
be able to heat up into the lower to mid 80s during the day
supporting some instability. 925 mb winds still aren`t looking
particularly impressive (30-40 kts), but with the line expected to
move through coastal areas in the afternoon the added instability
should produce an isolated strong wind gust, and convective activity
should increase. Shear for storm organization looks to be lagging
behind our system as the front should move through Monday night and
be offshore by the end of the period with clearing skies but not
much in the way of colder air until outside the short term period.
Lows remain in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in through mid next week with cooler, drier
weather. Main focus will be on frost potential/coverage for Tuesday
night with the limiting factor being a slight breeze and low
temperatures hovering around 36 degrees. Highest chances for
meaningful frost remain in our traditionally colder spots but even a
degree shift in the forecast could increase this area at least for
patchy frost. High pressure will move offshore ahead of another
frontal system approaching next weekend, with moderating
temperatures and increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 00Z Monday
across SE NC and NE SC. Low to moderate confidence in some MVFR
or maybe IFR cigs mainly late tonight. Otherwise, main concern
is the gusty winds which will be up near 25 or even 30 kt later
Sunday morning into the evening.

Extended Outlook...A cold front approaching from the west will
likely bring restrictions in showers and thunderstorms Mon into
Tue with VFR likely returning by Tue afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...S to SW winds 10 to 15 KT tonight will
increase to 15 to 20 KT Sunday. Seas of 3 to 4 FT tonight will
build to 4 to 5 FT Sunday.

Sunday Night through Thursday...An approaching cold front will
increase winds and seas with SCA conditions becoming dominant Sunday
night. S/SW winds will gust 25-30 kts with seas 4-6 ft. Winds will
become NWly overnight Monday into Tuesday as the front moves
offshore. Marine conditions will improve behind the front through
mid next week with building high pressure. Winds will be NEly around
15-20 kts, relaxing into Thursday as the high moves more overhead
before pushing offshore. Seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Increased southerly winds and seas around
offshore high pressure and ahead of incoming cold front are
expected to create a high risk of rip currents at the south-
facing beaches of Brunswick County on Sunday and Monday, along
with 4-5 ft waves. The high rip risk may also be expanded across
Horry County on Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...LEW/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...