773
FXUS62 KILM 240006
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
805 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will develop along stalled front to
the south and lift north tonight into Sunday, leading to
increased shower chances. Drier and cooler weather arrives
behind a cold front late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The area of convection to the south along an old frontal
boundary/trough continues to cycle up and down the past several
hours. This will be the case for the late afternoon/overnight
hours as there are model signals the area wants to favor the
more moisture rich offshore waters/Gulf Stream with dry air
entraining inland. Pops are highest as are qpf amounts a few
hours either side of 12 UTC Sunday...mainly along the coast. The
system/area of convection moves off at a decent pace during the
day Sunday. Lows tonight will be around 70 perhaps via a little
help evaporational cooling noting the residual lower dewpoints.
For Sunday some late August may help highs reach the middle
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low will be exiting to the northeast Sunday night, with
dry air and clear skies behind it. Plenty of sunshine and some
downslope warming will push high temps into the upper 80s/90F
Monday afternoon. While plenty of mid level dry air will limit
convection for most of the area Monday, there may be just enough
instability and low level moisture near the coast to produce
widely scattered thunderstorms along the sea breeze. Cold front
is progged to move across the area late Monday/Monday night, but
with limited moisture to work with (PWATs 1-1.25" for most of
the area by Monday evening), not expecting much in the way of
rain chances with the front. There will be a noticeable
advection of dry air behind the front, as dewpoints drop to
upper 50s/low 60s by Tuesday morning. Low temps Monday night in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Below normal temperatures and dry weather will dominate
majority of the long term period as a large upper trough settles
over the Eastern US and surface high pressure builds in from
the west mid- week. A shortwave rounds the base of the trough
late Tuesday/early Wednesday, but with limited moisture likely
won`t see anything more than increased cloud cover. Highs in the
low to mid 80s Tuesday will drop to near 80F mid to late week.
The low temps will feel like a bigger change, with lows in the
low 60s forecasted, potentially upper 50s near I-95 corridor
Thursday and Friday mornings (roughly 10 degrees below normal).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR/MVFR conditions early this evening as moisture in the form of
clouds and or rain continues to struggle to make it inland or
northward. Still expect MVFR to even IFR restrictions especially
along coastal sites overnight. Conditions will slowly improve during
the day Sunday but the push in the wake of this moisture is rather
weak.

Extended Outlook...There is moderate confidence in MVFR to IFR
conditions along the coast affecting KMYR, KCRE, and KILM
through at least Sunday afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail through the extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...The area of convection to the south along an
old frontal boundary/trough continues to cycle up and down the
past several hours. This will be the case for the late
afternoon/overnight hours as there are model signals the area
wants to favor the more moisture rich offshore waters/Gulf
Stream with dry air entraining inland. Pops are highest as are
qpf amounts a few hours either side of 12 UTC Sunday...mainly
along the coast. The system/area of convection moves off at a
decent pace during the day Sunday. Lows tonight will be around
70 perhaps via a little help evaporational cooling noting the
residual lower dewpoints. For Sunday some late August may help
highs reach the middle 80s.

Sunday Night through Thursday...West-southwest winds on Monday
will veer to northeasterly by Tuesday morning after a cold front
moves across the waters Monday night. Northeast winds will
prevail across the local coastal waters Tuesday through Thursday
as surface high pressure builds in from the west, with wind
speeds of 10-15 kts Wednesday and Thursday. Seas 2-3 ft early
Monday lower to around 2 feet for Tuesday and Wednesday,
primarily due to long period ENE swell, with weak wind chop and
a 1 ft SE swell mixed in. Seas increase again to 2-3 ft on
Thursday, with 4 footers possible in outer coastal waters, as NE
wind wave builds and mixes with persistent SE swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide cycle through early next week, with the
evening high tide cycles being the higher high tide. Minor
coastal flooding is also expected along the southeast NC and
northeast SC coasts during this evening`s high tide, and will be
close to minor flood levels during both high tides on Sunday.

RIP CURRENTS: An elevated risk of rip currents north of Cape
Fear is expected to continue through the weekend, due to
lingering swells from Hurricane Erin. Rip currents may continue
into early next week as swells from another distant system
approach the US east coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
    108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SHK/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM