040
FXUS62 KILM 241048
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
648 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Stalled out front along the coast will bring an isolated flash
flood threat through Saturday night.

- 2) Forecast begins to dry out Sunday into early next week,
  with heat returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Stalled out front along the coast will bring an
isolated flash flood threat through Saturday night.

Latest surface analysis shows the frontal boundary draped across the
southern extent of the local forecast area, spanning roughly from
Kingstree to Conway to south of downtown Wilmington. An exceedingly
tropical atmosphere is building in, with precipitable water (PWAT)
values at or above 2 inches across most of the area, sans
Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties at 1.8-1.9 inches. In the
coming hours, PWAT values will shoot up into the 2.25-2.50" range.

Latest radar observations show clusters of rain with a few rumbles
of thunder across parts of the SC Pee Dee and NC coastal plain,
riding along shortwave energy aloft. This activity will slowly make
its way over to the I-95 corridor over the next few hours.
Meanwhile, at the coast, showers are much more isolated in nature,
with an overall lull in the activity expected to continue through
much of the morning hours.

The front will remain nearly stationary this afternoon, if not
nudging slightly closer to the coast. HREF probs soundly suggest
that the seabreeze will interact with this front, providing a good
convergence boundary for showers and storms to quickly pop along the
coastline sometime between noon EDT and 3 PM EDT this afternoon.
Rainfall rates could look particularly sporty here, especially if
there`s some extra shortwave energy aloft (4-6 inches/hour in some
spots).

Flood Watch remains in effect for all counties in southeast NC, and
has now been expanded to include Horry, Williamsburg, Georgetown,
Florence, Dillon, and Marion Counties in northeast SC. This watch
now goes through 8 AM EDT Saturday officially, but could be extended
further out in time in later forecast updates.

What happens beyond the seabreeze/front interaction this afternoon
becomes feast or famine, as far as rain and flooding concerns go.
Deep tropical moisture with lack of steering flow scream flooding,
but weak shear and thicker CAPE profiles don`t have it looking very
organized. And then of course, there`s the drought. In spite of
whatever limitations there are, HREF and REFS guidance is really
starting to pick up on isolated flash flooding, while the NBM has
yet to catch up on this idea. Collaboration with the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) resulted in highlighting a "Moderate Risk"
(threat level 3/4) for excessive rainfall across the southern half
of the forecast area.

General trends seem to show a swath of rain over the Cape Fear
region late tonight through Saturday morning, transitioning to the
Grand Strand and Pee Dee regions by late Saturday into Saturday
night. Given the lack of organization with this system, it`s very
hard to determine where the heaviest rain swaths will set up, and
when. Most won`t see flooding, but within these isolated pockets,
some could be dealing with a potentially significant event. Overall
rainfall totals through Saturday night are expected to be 2-4
inches, with locally higher amounts in excess of 5-6 inches possible.

This is a complicated forecast with high bust potential, but leaves
me feeling a little uneasy. Be careful today and this weekend.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast begins to dry out Sunday into early next
week, with heat returning.

The front finally starts to push into the Atlantic Sunday, aided by
deepening surface low pressure. Forecast gradually drys out Sunday
through Tuesday. As a result, heat is on the rise, and triple digit
heat indices become a factor again as early as Monday. Another
frontal system may bring back some rain chances by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hit or miss showers/storms that will likely sock vsbys in due to
heavy rain. Tried to time stuff out best I could in TAFs. On top
of rain issues there will be CIGs at inland terminals through
the morning, scattering out in the afternoon before coming down
again later in the day. It looks like activity will be more
near the coast this afternoon and then inland tonight. Some fog
might also be possible between the rain tonight for inland
terminals.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to storms
expected through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoons and
evenings. Conditions should start to dry out Monday with predominant
VFR returning, and prevailing through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Friday through Tuesday...A front will stall near the coast with
light S/SW winds prevailing and seas calming to largely 2-3 ft. The
main threat to mariners will be gusty winds and drops in visibility
due to moderate to heavy rain. The front is expected to eventually
drop south of our area with some uncertainty with timing. For now it
looks like Sunday the winds will become northerly briefly behind the
front before another approaches and S/SW flow builds back in through
early next week. Seas remain largely 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for SCZ024-032-033-039-
     054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...LEW