Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
034 FXUS62 KILM 052334 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Return flow around offshore high pressure will bring warming conditions into Wednesday. A dry backdoor front will slide into the area late Wednesday with little impact to the above normal temperatures. It will move north again Thursday, and temperatures will remain well above normal into Saturday. A cold front will arrive late Saturday, only bringing minor rain chances, but a cooler airmass for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure was centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon, with a weak inverted trough extending from south of Cape Fear southward just off the SC coast. The low-level ridge will shift eastward overnight, and 850 mb moisture return will lead to some redevelopment of some stratus overnight. It will also hold min temps tonight a bit above climo, with 40-45 expected inland and 45-50 closer to the coast. A very low chance of showers will exist overnight, mainly right along the coast due to the proximity of the inverted trough, however expect the bulk of associated showers will remain offshore. Southwest flow will set up Tuesday between low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and high pressure offshore, and will push temps into the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather. A cold front will approach through Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will lead to an increase in high clouds as well as warm air advection ahead of the front. The front looks to move through late in the day with no moisture this far south, clouds clearing out with mid- level dry air. This added sunshine could lead to well above normal highs Saturday, near 70, as the cold air won`t arrive until Wednesday night. Lighter winds Wednesday night will fight building high clouds as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Lows Tuesday night will be near 50 while the colder air will drop us into the 40s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be in place for Thursday with the cold front stalled to our south. The high will move offshore ahead of another cold front approaching for the weekend. This will drag the stalled front north with well above normal temperatures lingering through Saturday, when the cold front is expected to move through. Some meaningful moisture will finally build in under this prolonged S/SW flow, leading to increased rain chances into the weekend and until the front moves through. Colder temperatures will return into early next week behind the front with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light winds and gradually increasing low level moisture through the night could lead to areas of MVFR ceilings and visibility in fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. There is a high probability conditions will remain VFR through 06-07z before deteriorating afterward. The highest potential for airport impacts will be at the two Myrtle Beach airports, KCRE and KMYR, between 08-12z Tuesday. There is moderate potential for impacts at KFLO and KLBT lasting perhaps as late as 15z Tuesday. And there is a somewhat lower potential for low clouds or ground dog at KILM. Light winds should turn southwesterly at 8-12 knots by Tuesday afternoon. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR Tuesday evening through Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...A weak trough just off the coast is maintaining light NE flow across the nearshore waters early this afternoon. Direction will likely become variable at times overnight as the trough draws closer to shore, then predominantly SW on Tuesday as the trough weakens and moves NE. SW flow will increase through Tuesday in synoptic flow around surface low pressure that will cross the Great Lakes region, reaching 15 kt during the afternoon, with a few gusts to 20 kt. Scattered showers associated with the inverted trough may spread into the nearshore waters during the overnight hours. Tuesday through Friday...Tuesday`s winds may start light and variable but a southwesterly component should come to dominate as the gradient develops between offshore high pressure and a storm system in the Great Lakes. Wednesday and Thursday will bring more benign conditions with relatively light winds though the wind direction is uncertain due to the position of a frontal boundary that may or may not push weakly through. Best forecast at time is that it moves through Wed night for a wind shift to N followed by veering the onshore as the parent high to our north moves eastward. High pressure becomes more firmly established off the MidAtlantic coast on Friday bringing a return of southerly flow of light intensity. No major swell energy will be present allowing the shorter period wind waves to dominate. The only minor swell will be out of the east as high pressure struggles to consolidate, especially before Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...TRA MARINE...LEW/CRM