Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
139 FXUS62 KILM 292340 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unusually hot weather with high humidity will continue today through Friday. A cold front should push through late Friday bringing noticeably cooler weather for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak and chaotic mid-upper flow over the Southeast US today and tonight will evolve as a weak anticyclone aloft takes shape just east of Florida on Wednesday. Near the surface, a weakly-defined pressure pattern exists as a remnant surface trough lingers nearby over the Atlantic with weak surface high pressure well to the north and west of the area. This setup, combined with anomalously high precipitable water values holding around 2.2-2.4", will result in scattered slow-moving heavy showers and storms developing through this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Convective outflows may keep at least isolated showers and storms around overnight wherever instability lingers, although where this would affect is virtually impossible to determine at this point. Otherwise, as convective debris clouds thin out overnight, the risk for fog and very low cloud formation will grow, especially where rain falls today. However, if new convection forms and keeps debris clouds in place, some areas may not see any mist or fog at all. Tomorrow, light northwesterly or westerly flow aloft should tend to push storms slowly towards the coast. Temperatures will remain above normal given the continued presence of this soupy air mass, although the ridge axis being well west of the area means max temps will be a little lower than today. In addition, the high moisture content of the air mass will support considerable cumulus development and an earlier start to convection than earlier in the week. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will not be issued for tomorrow, although many places may see heat indices reach above 100F before convection gets going around noon. Tonight`s lows will be in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s near the coast and Wednesday`s highs should reach the low 90s, except right along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Although the heat has diminished from previous days, this will be the final few days of extreme heat with temps into the 90s and dewpoints well into the 70s. The expansive ridge from the central CONUS weakens and breaks apart with a greater influence from ridge extending up from the Bahamas. The local area remains on the northern extent of the ridge with H5 heights up near 594 dam through Thurs and greater W-SW flow through the mid levels. This could produce Heat Advisory conditions across portion of our area, especially just inland of the coast where more moisture rich dewpoint air from sea breeze makes it. This time of year the sea breeze becomes weaker as water temps run up into the mid to upper 80s and the greatest dewpoints remain confined closer to the coast. Overall, expect hot and humid weather, but showers and storms should create fluctuations in these temps, especially as we move into Thurs night and Fri. The boundary that was lingering over our area will move north Wed night into Thurs with increasing southerly winds between high pressure to the east and trough and cold front to the north and northwest. Should see a brief drop in pcp water values at this time with more in the way of localized storms Thurs but deepening mid to upper trough will give a good push to low level trough and front Thurs night and Fri. Expect more convective coverage at this time with increasing W to SW flow moving storms this way and producing some heavy rain across portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Change of air mass for the weekend with a decent drop in temps and dewpoints. Deepening mid to upper trough will push cold front south and east, and offshore Fri night into Sat. Winds will come around to the This front should clear the area, but linger close enough to keep some convection over portions of the coast or into SC over the weekend. Shortwave digs down over the weekend with H5 heights dropping from 594 midweek down to 588 dam by early next week. A boundary may linger near or into the area into early next week. A strengthening mid to upper ridge in the Atlantic may exert itself pushing boundary and/or deeper level moisture back over the Carolinas early to middle of next week. Temps will be down below normal for the first time in days with readings in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints down in the 60s over most of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convective coverage was much higher today as opposed to this time yesterday thus expecting fog and or stratus (IFR) in the morning hours. It will take time however for the extensive debris cloud canopy to dissipate. Inland areas seem to have the best chance. For Wednesday expecting a repeat performance with little in the way of synoptic pattern change. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms. Vis and low cig restrictions are possible each night through the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Light and changeable winds near or below 10 kts will continue through the period, driven primarily by the diurnal sea/land breeze circulations. Showers and storms over land may push outflow into the coastal waters, resulting in sudden wind shifts and isolated storms developing over the water. Wave heights around 1-2 ft will continue through Wednesday. Wednesday night through Sunday...Gradient will tighten a bit between high pressure to the east and trough and front to the north and west Wed night into Fri. SW winds up to 10 kts with higher gusts will continue until cold front drops south with a shift to W-NW winds Fri night. By Sat, winds will increase out of the NE up to 15 to 20 kts pushing seas up from 2 to 3 ft through Fri up tp 4 to 5 ft and possibly into SCA thresholds over the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage as the front reaches the area Friday. Even behind the front Saturday there will be no significant erosion of moisture behind the front and showers and a few thunderstorms may continue. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SHK MARINE...RGZ/ABW