178
FXUS62 KILM 261858
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
258 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain near to above normal through early next
week with generally near normal rain chances as high pressure
prevails. An approaching cold front will then bring cooler
temperatures and elevated rain chances toward the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The hot ridge of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic states should
slip offshore tonight and become centered off the Carolina coast
tomorrow. An upper low across Florida will move into southwest
Georgia by tomorrow afternoon. This should lead to the upper level
flow veering southeasterly across the Carolinas but without any
accompanying increase in deep moisture or precipitable water values.

In the very near term, CAMs continue to show little if any
thunderstorm development across our area this afternoon or this
evening. The culprit appears to be very dry mid level air plus
significantly more stable lapse rates aloft compared to yesterday,
both inhibiting cumulus clouds from growing. My forecast PoPs are no
higher than 10 percent through the evening which is below threshold
for mention in the forecast text. A very modest 20 knot southwest
low level jet should help hold temps warmer than last night and low-
mid 70s are forecast for most areas.

850 mb temps expected to range from +19C along the coast to +21C
inland Friday should again allow temps to rise into the mid 90s
inland under plenty of sunshine. Dewpoints anticipated to mix down
into the lower 70s should keep heat indices in the 100-103 range, so
no Heat Advisory is being considered at this time. Isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible but modest mid
level lapse rates and some residual dry air, especially across North
Carolina, could limit coverage. Owing to these factors and rather
dry GFS/NAM MOS output I`ve bumped down NBM 30-40 PoPs to no higher
than 20-30 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Mainly above normal temps and near normal rain chances
*Very low severe storm/flash flood risk

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure looks to weaken a bit, giving way to slightly
more troughing. However, rain chances still look to be pretty low
overall given the general lack of forcing/instability. Rain
timing/location favors the typical inland areas during
afternoon/evening peak heating, although could see a few marine
showers/storms near the coast during the late night/early morning
period as well. The risk for severe storms is very low given their
pulse-nature, with the main hazard being isolated damaging wind
gusts. Temps will generally be a bit above normal with highs in the
lower to mid 90s away from the cooler coastal areas and lows
generally in the lower to mid 70s away from the warmer coastal
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Hot and humid conditions near Heat Advisory levels away from
the coast through early next week
*Near normal rain chances through Mon, then above normal chances
starting Tue
*Low severe storm/flash flood risk through the period

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure should prevail into early next week keeping
conditions fairly normal/summer-like before an approaching cold
front mid week leads to cooler temps/higher rain chances,
especially starting Wed. The lack of deep layer shear implies
more in the way of pulse/slow-moving storms which favors pretty
low severe storm chances but a bit higher flash flood risk. Hot
and humid conditions are expected through the period, although
heat indices will be highest through early next week before
cooler/rainier conditions are expected toward mid week. At this
time we don`t anticipate the need for Heat Advisories but could
certainly come close through Tue, mainly away from the coastal
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions have a high confidence of prevailing over the
coming 24 hours. There a two low probability events that may
bring brief flight category impacts:
- Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into early
  this evening mainly between 20z-01z. The probability is too
  low for inclusion in the TAF at this time but there is a
  10-20 percent likelihood of storms in the vicinity of KILM and
  KLBT.
- Isolated ground fog could develop late tonight with possible
  MVFR visibility at KCRE and KFLO mainly between 07-11z.

Otherwise light mainly southwest winds will increase along the
coast this afternoon due to the daily seabreeze.

Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible due
to isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The probability of
impacts is less than 30 percent.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Weak Bermuda High Pressure will maintain a
southwesterly wind across the Carolinas. Winds should average
10 knots, but will increase to 15 knots gusting to near 20 knots
through this evening and again tomorrow afternoon nearshore due
to typical seabreeze effects. Seas of 2 to 3 feet are expected
to continue in a mix of southeast swells every 9 seconds plus
south-southwest wind waves every 3-4 seconds.

Friday night through Tuesday...High confidence. Mainly a summertime
pattern with southerly winds prevailing around offshore high
pressure and inland low pressure. Winds should stay mostly 15 kt or
less through Monday with a bit more inland troughing Tue leading to
stronger winds, although still likely staying below Small Craft
Advisory levels. Seas should stay mostly 4 ft or less.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RJB