170
FXUS62 KILM 111147
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
747 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Localized flooding remains possible through this evening with
showers and storms, especially near the coast. Unsettled
weather continues on Monday before a gradual return to typical
summertime conditions of afternoon storms and near normal
temperatures during the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stationary surface frontal boundary was located just off the coast
as of 04Z Monday, and will linger in the area through the period.
Generally southerly flow above the very shallow frontal layer will
maintain PWAT values around 2.2" through tonight. This flow will
direct ongoing showers and thunderstorms off the SC coast towards
the area through the day, however heavier cores should begin moving
more towards the NE as they encounter SW flow around 700 mb. This
should keep higher QPF generally across the eastern third of the CWA
today, where those heavy cores could produce 1-2". We will extend
the Flood Watch through 6 PM today as it is currently laid out.
Further inland, QPF will drop off to ~0.25" for the near-term period.

Clouds/rain will limit the diurnal temperature range to only about
10 degrees. Highs today will only reach the low 80s, and lows
tonight will fall to the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As high pressure is pushed over our area the coastal trough offshore
will dissipate through the day Tuesday. The high will settle loosely
over the area with SW flow leading to the start of a warmup and more
summerlike conditions. Rain chances will be a bit higher for Tuesday
due to the local enhancement still around but it will be drier
Tuesday night with the arrival of the high. Wednesday will have
typical isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
More summerlike conditions with highs increasing into the 90s
through Friday. Low pressure to the north sends a cold front towards
us but it looks like it gets held up at the NC/VA border. PVA aloft
will reach our area however leading to some increased shower/storm
coverage for the end of the work week. With some cooler air aloft
and the high in the vicinity we could see a decrease in temps back
into the 80s and lowered shower/storm coverage outside of the sea
breeze/Piedmont trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stalled frontal boundary will linger just off the coast
today, maintaining light ENE flow across area
terminals...becoming calm or light and variable overnight.
Showers should remain at a minimum through the early morning,
but start to blossom after 15Z, with best chance for thunder
during peak afternoon heating. Convection should die down after
sunset, with potential for LIFR impacting inland terminals after
06Z given calm winds and plenty of residual moisture.

Extended Outlook... Flight Restrictions expected to continue at
times throughout the extended due to either scattered
convection or low ceilings each night time/morning periods. More
of the same is possible with a return to more typical summer
weather into midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight... A stalled frontal boundary was laying just off
the coast this morning, and it will linger in the area through the
period. A weak gradient will keep winds relatively light and
variable...generally 10 kts or less outside of showers and
thunderstorms. Flow just off the surface will remain directed out of
the south, and this will steer ongoing convection off the SC coast
into the area waters through the morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will become numerous at times through the day, and
unsettled conditions will persist through tonight.

Tuesday through Thursday...Low pressure well to the north will
squish Atlantic high pressure just south of our area into the latter
half of the week. This will result in W to SW winds with an increase
to ~15 kts late Wed into Thurs as the PG increases. SCA not
anticipated at this time. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ099-107>110.
SC...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-
     059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...LEW/CRM