493
FXUS62 KILM 250700
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes coming down the track as we hit 3 AM EDT.
Showers and storms are less active than what was expected here
during the overnight hours, but activity is expected to ramp up
later this morning. Flood Watch remains in effect for most of
the area until 8 PM EDT this evening.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z
TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Stationary front along the coast will continue to bring
  several more impulses of showers and storms today and into
  this evening. Isolated flooding remains possible.

- 2) Forecast starts to dry out Sunday as the front finally
  moves offshore. Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
  chances possible Monday and Tuesday, with the next front due
  by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Stationary front along the coast will continue to
bring several more impulses of showers and storms today and into
this evening. Isolated flooding remains possible.

Latest surface analysis shows the lingering frontal boundary
basically bisecting the local forecast area from the Pee Dee region
to the Cape Fear region. Mesoanalysis shows precipitable water
(PWAT) values holding at 2.3-2.4" across the area, indicating a
tropical airmass is in place.

Showers and storms have fizzled away over the last several hours,
giving way to a lull that will continue through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Over the last 24 hours, 1-2 inches of rain have
fallen across the area, with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches in
some isolated spots along the coastline. Indeed, the drought has
been winning in this fight so far against the isolated flooding
threat. Even for the 2-4 inches that fell across the Wilmington
area, several of our staff have commented how there is little
ponding on the roads, an indication that soils are soaking up this
water. Welcomed news!

Convection will gradually start to fire up again towards the late
morning hours, as the front slowly snakes towards the coast again.
We should see a similar pattern to yesterday, where the front
interacts with the seabreeze to create a healthy convergence
boundary for storms to fire along the coastline by 12-2 PM EDT this
afternoon. Shortwave impulses aloft will help to sustain this
convection, along with outflow boundaries of the storms themselves.
Heading towards this evening, storms may start to favor the
northeast SC coast, before rain chances gradually start to come down
after midnight tonight.

Flood Watch remains in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening for all of
southeast NC and most of northeast SC, sans Darlington and Marlboro
Counties. The last 24 hours have set precedence that flooding will
be hard to achieve in this drought, but it`s still something that we
cannot rule out with more rain on the way today. Most should see an
additional 1-2 inches today, with locally higher amounts of 2-4
inches possible.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast starts to dry out Sunday as the front
finally moves offshore. Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances possible Monday and Tuesday, with the next front due by
midweek.

The old frontal boundary finally starts to push out into the
Atlantic late tonight into Sunday. As a result, rain chances
gradually start to come down. Much drier conditions expected
through Tuesday, with only a slight chance of showers and storms
in the afternoon, resembling a more summer-like pattern. More
organized rain chances may come by Wednesday with another
frontal system approaching from the Ohio Valley.

Triple digit heat indices also return as early as Monday, though
it looks more likely on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lots of MVFR and potentially LIFR ahead for the 06Z TAF period. A
lull in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to continue
through the remainder of the overnight hours. IFR fog is building in
over KLBT as we speak, and is expected to reach KFLO by 07Z or so.
After sunrise this morning, looking at the immediate coast to
gradually fire up with convection again. Used PROB30 groups to
account for passing showers in the late morning hours. High res
models continue to indicate that KILM, KCRE, and KMYR will
experience the brunt of the convection generally from 16-21Z this
afternoon (used TEMPO groups for that part). While KFLO and KLBT
shouldn`t get as much convection coverage, they may observe the IFR
stratus, being they will be on the "cool" side of the front as it
slowly snakes to the south and east. Winds generally NE-NW around 5
kt or less across the inland terminals. And for the coastal
terminals S-NW 4 to 9 kt.

Extended Forecast...Drier air finally starts to seep in late
Saturday night into Sunday, allowing rain chances to decrease. Could
see some fog restrictions Sunday morning. VFR conditions to dominate
thereafter with periodic flight restrictions from diurnal convection
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Saturday through Wednesday...A nearly stationary front and multiple
rounds of showers and storms will create havoc with wind
direction/speed today and this evening. A lull in the activity over
the waters this morning will become more widespread by the early
afternoon. Overall, outside of any convection, expect seas to be 3
ft or less through Tuesday, increasing to 3-5 ft by Wednesday. SWly
winds will prevail south of the front and away from any storms
through this evening. The flow will veer around to a Nly direction
late tonight into Sunday with the old front finally south of the
area. Typical SWly flow will return to the waters Monday and persist
through Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ024-032-033-039-
     054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB