Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
756 FXUS62 KILM 132335 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 735 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will remain focused along the coast as a surface trough drops into the area Friday. By Saturday a dissipated front will have moved through leading to much quieter weather including a nearly rain-free Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convection has generally followed the analyzed arc of instability from the I-95 corridor, northward along and north of US-74, and southward along the coastal areas of northeastern SC and southeastern NC. Cold pools generated by earlier convection and amble debris clouds should bring an early end to showers and storms for much of the area. Georgetown and Williamsburg counties have enjoyed some sunshine this afternoon and afternoon convection could re-develop here through the late afternoon or early evening hours. Low level moisture following widespread rain this afternoon could lead to areas of fog on Wednesday morning. Inland areas, especially along the I-95 corridor will have the best chance of seeing fog due to weak boundary layer winds. Fog may favor low clouds near the coast with light boundary layer winds continuing overnight. Mild and humid lows in the low to mid 70s. Ridging over the southeastern US will allow sunshine and warm weather to return to portions of the area on Wednesday. With weak mid level energy riding the northern periphery of a weak ridge, afternoon showers and thunderstorms should be focused over NC. Isolated convection will be possible over northeastern SC, particularly near the sea breeze and inland along the Piedmont trough, but chances should decrease to the south. Highs back in the upper 80s to around 90. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Prefrontal trough drops in Thursday night from the north. Some slightly lower depends creep into interior counties where rain chances should shut off esp after 06Z. Showers may linger along the coast ahead of the boundary. Moisture appears to recover Friday esp at the coast even though the winds never really turn back around. And although there may still be some uncertainty as to where the surface convergence maximizes Friday afternoon (Cape Fear Region seems most likely) these areas may wind up seeing one last day of healthy coverage of thunderstorms, some of which may have high lightning flash rates esp if the more aggressive instability in WRF soundings comes to pass. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The northerly flow component in the column deepens heading into Saturday as a dissipating front pushes through from the north. Rain chances will abate back to seasonable norms whereas Sunday dries out altogether save for an isolated shower or storm on the sea breeze. The mainly dry weather should last into Monday with only a gradual increase in shower/storm coverage thereafter as the moisture creeps back. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Persistence forecast really as recent trends show a decrease in convection and debris cloudiness. The possibility of MVFR and or IFR stratus/fog developing later tonight remains in place with more convection expected Thursday. Extended Outlook... Periodic flight restrictions are expected with convection each afternoon and evening. Fog and low stratus could also cause brief restrictions each morning as transition back to a more typical summer-like weather pattern starting mid to late this week. Unsettled weather may return this weekend behind a stalled offshore frontal boundary. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... S and SW flow will remain light through late Wednesday. Seas around 2-3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms over the nearshore waters will persist through this evening, decreasing in coverage on Wednesday morning. Thursday night through Monday... Southwesterly winds will veer on Friday as a front approaches but stalls. The more legit wind shift comes with frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. There will not be a big surge of wind/high pressure behind the front so even wave faces shouldn`t steepen appreciably. Light NE post-frontall winds will round out the period. The initial swells from Erin arrive Sunday but their affects will be confined to rip current activity at area beaches due to their weak nature in the more open waters. A bit of a NE surge comes down the coast on Sunday but these larger waves will tend to remain outside of 20 nm. The considerably longer period/15second swells arrive late Monday but they will still be somewhat diminutive. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...ILM