466
FXUS62 KILM 212040
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
340 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring chilly weather until its
transition offshore leads to a return of seasonable temperatures
Sunday. The midweek period will continue to warm and remain
rain-free. A cold front Thursday could bring isolated showers as
well as a cooldown Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak mid-level troughing will move offshore tonight and transition
to weak ridging early tomorrow. Considerable subsidence and dry air
through much of the atmospheric column will make for primarily clear
skies through tonight. Some thin high-level cirrus are expected to
pass overhead during the middle of the night, but little to no
sensible weather impacts are expected from these. Surface high
pressure will build into the Piedmont tonight and weaken the
pressure gradient, resulting in winds going light or calm this
evening and remaining that way through the night. With very dry air
in place, mostly clear skies, and calm winds, excellent radiational
cooling conditions are on tap, and will support very cold overnight
lows, with moderate to high confidence that they will end up similar
to or colder than last night. Upper teens to low 20s are forecast,
with low-mid teens possible in normally colder spots across the Cape
Fear region. Due to the very limited coverage of <15F lows and
virtually no wind, a Cold Weather Advisory will not be issued for
tonight.

On Saturday, the weak mid-level ridge axis will quickly shift
eastward during the afternoon ahead of a rather potent shortwave
trough shifting across the Mid-South. With little low-level moisture
available, no shower activity is expected during the day.
However, dense high clouds will make for an overcast sky across
much of the region, mainly during the afternoon into the early
evening. Low- level moisture return off the Atlantic may yield
scattered low clouds lifting northward during the evening. High
temps will be limited somewhat by the thick high cloud cover,
with temps struggling to reach 50F across our northern tier.
Southwestern areas (e.g., Florence, Williamsburg, Georgetown)
should see thin-enough high cloud cover to warm into the low to
perhaps mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After one more chilly night where it seemed prudent to go a bit
towards some of the lower percentiles of the NBM (as a coastal
trough keeps winds light) temperatures will finally return to
normal on Sunday as the still light winds turn to the south just off
the surface.  Similarly Sunday night`s lows look fairly seasonable.
Zonal flow and weak surface winds should keep skies clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tempered warm advection Monday will bring highs in the mid 60s while
a few clouds pass over as a shortwave and surface low move across
Florida. A moisture-starved front will move through with little more
than a wind shift Tuesday night but the approach of another cold
front will help to keep temperatures above normal both Tuesday and
Wednesday. This next boundary moves through Thursday and with
limited moisture flux ahead of it only low end chance POPs appear
warranted. Friday`s temperatures will be knocked back down to climo
if not a few degrees below.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions continues through the TAF
period. Winds will become light or calm soon after sunset with
some thin cirrus passing through overnight. With high pressure
essentially overhead on Saturday, expect light and variable
winds through the day. Expect thick high clouds to overspread
most terminals around midday, but no threat of MVFR cigs exists.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR through at least
Saturday night. Low confidence exists for a few hours of MVFR
cigs over Saturday night. Otherwise, moderate to high confidence
for VFR persists through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... NW flow will veer to northerly and remain steady
at around 10 kts tonight as high pressure shifts over the Piedmont.
The high shifts to near or right over the coast tomorrow, with winds
becoming light and veering to easterly during the afternoon. Waves
in the 1-3 ft range this afternoon will follow a slow decreasing
trend into the 1-2 ft range tonight due to the slackening of the
winds.

Saturday night through Wednesday... With a poorly defined pressure
pattern an only a weak easterly swell conditions will be quite
benign early in the period. Pinning down a wind direction could even
be difficult at times as well with a weak boundary lurking off the
coast and a very weak front moving through Tuesday night. Seas will
average 2 ft for the most part for all but perhaps the end of the
period when the approach of another cold front introduces a few 3
ft wind waves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW