075
FXUS62 KILM 171015
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
615 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area through
today into the evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the
weekend.

Ridging will build just north of the area with a return to above
normal temperatures through the end of the week. A Heat Advisory is
out for our entire area today with near 110 heat indices possible,
mainly for our coastal areas right when the sea breeze gets going.
We should mix out again behind the initial moisture push from the
sea breeze with heat indices largely 107-109. Smoke aloft could have
some impact on these conditions as well (lower temperatures, less
mixing, higher dewpoints) along with any showers/storms that pop up
along the sea breeze. All this added uncertainty made the Heat
Advisory the way to go. By the weekend, moisture should have
recovered enough to support typical afternoon showers/storms with
isolated to scattered coverage, but these aren`t anticipated to help
to abate the heat threat into next week. There are signals that low
pressure could form somewhere in the SE U.S. which could impact the
rainfall forecast headed into next week but confidence on location
and exact impacts is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is high confidence VFR conditions will continue through
the morning hours. Confidence comes down slightly this afternoon
as there may be an isolated convective shower or thunderstorm
that develops along the seabreeze front. Probability is too low
for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Seabreeze winds will
increase to 12-15 knots for the coastal airports KILM, KCRE, and
KMYR this afternoon.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into the
weekend with predominantly VFR conditions expected. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms Saturday should increase in coverage
substantially Sunday into Monday as a tropical disturbance moves
near the area. Expect brief flight restrictions from this
activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Friday through Tuesday... W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft
Advisory gusts may be possible for the weekend as the PG increases,
and the wind wave will become more dominant. Seas largely 2-3 ft
increasing to 4-5 ft Saturday night into Sunday with some 6 footers
possible 20+ nmi out. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday
but there`s some uncertainty based the potential for low pressure
development in the SE U.S. late this weekend into next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM