316
FXUS62 KILM 092359
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
759 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from the SC
Lowcountry this afternoon back into northeastern South Carolina
and southeastern North Carolina into Monday.

2) Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, but with
increasing temperatures and potential for the heat index to exceed
105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mid level ridging remains the dominant feature
across the area this afternoon. Small chances for convection
southern areas this afternoon but coverage should be limited.
Height falls with an approaching front/trough/sea breeze
increase chances across all areas Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture remains limited in the prevailing
northwest flow allowing heat index values to increase to
possible headline criteria. This is predicated on a mostly dry
forecast which is low confidence this time of year, especially
several days in a row. Shorter daylight hours make it more
difficult for excessive heat as does the ever present
complication of dry air mixing down each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence exists for predominantly VFR conditions through
the period at coastal terminals while inland terminals have
moderate confidence due to the potential for fog and low cigs
once again. Although inland terminals have seen LIFR to VLIFR
cigs and fog the last few nights, conditions are a bit less
favorable this time with a 15-20kt low-level jet expected to
develop. With that said, guidance tools still suggest surface
winds can decrease to 3 kts or less beneath mainly clear skies,
which would support fog and/or low clouds, but with the jet
overhead, bursts of 4-6 kt wind should limit fog growth
potential and keep low stratus as the primary hazard to
aviation. Otherwise, with increasing moisture aloft, expect
plenty of cumulus to develop by late morning with even some
showers possible near the coast starting around noon. A passing
disturbance should help to develop scattered showers and storms
during the afternoon both along the sea breeze and inland,
posing a threat for brief MVFR to LIFR vis restrictions to all
terminals.

Extended Forecast... Brief restrictions due to passing showers
or storms may persist into the early evening at the coast before
dissipating. Predominant VFR is expected through the rest of the
week with isolated pop-up showers during each afternoon and
shallow ground fog possible each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda high pressure offshore should remain the dominant
weather maker for us over the next five days. The center of the
high is currently between Bermuda and Cape Fear. The high
should sink south next week, leading to winds veering more
westerly and increasing in speed. We also should experience a
larger number of showers and thunderstorms today and especially
Monday. Not really seeing anything in the winds or seas that
come close to any headlines.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...31