436
FXUS62 KILM 070225
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1025 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
next week as a series of disturbances pass across the region,
with a strong cold front stalling along the coast during the
middle of next week. Thunderstorms are possible throughout the
week; some may be severe, especially late Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. The biggest threats are damaging winds and hail.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor changes. Forecast on track with a very warm and muggy
night with mainly clear skies aside for some cirrus spilling
down from storms well upstream.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will build overhead through tonight with dry air
and subsidence helping to squash daytime cumulus this evening. A
weak shortwave trough passing north of the area tonight looks
to stay far enough away that any convection won`t reach the
area, but high-level debris clouds will spread over the area
tonight into tomorrow morning. With a southwesterly low-level
jet driving winds of around 20-25 kts at 1000 feet overnight,
expect steady southwest winds to keep any fog or low stratus at
bay. Low temps in the low-mid 70s are expected.

The aforementioned shortwave will drive a surface low into the Mid-
Atlantic region around midday tomorrow, with its associated cold
front approaching the eastern Carolinas late in the day. With breezy
southwest winds developing courtesy of a rather tight pressure
gradient ahead of the front, expect an abnormally hot day with highs
in the low-mid 90s away from the immediate coast. Deep vertical
mixing should help to mix dew points down into the upper 60s to
low 70s amidst gusts into the 25-30 mph range, especially inland.

The approaching front and a more robust shortwave trough should
bring increasing rain chances late in the day as showers and
storms develop across the higher terrain of NC and move
east/southeastward, although how far into the forecast area this
will reach is rather uncertain at this time. Nevertheless, the
pre-storm environment is expected to become moderate to
strongly unstable with peak MLCAPE values of 1500-2000+ J/kg by
mid-late afternoon (and considerably higher SBCAPE of 2000-3500+
J/kg). 0-6 km shear is forecast to gradually increase as well,
with around 20-30 kts of shear by late afternoon (highest across
the northern zones). Thus, the environment will be supportive
for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds
being the primary threat, followed by large hail. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the entire area in a "Slight"
risk (threat level 2 out of 5) for severe weather given this
setup.

Finally, whether any storms develop along the sea breeze carries
low confidence, as southwesterly winds do not favor significant
convergence along the sea breeze (except perhaps near
Georgetown, SC) and subsidence in the wake of tonight`s
shortwave will keep a cap on vertical cumulus development into
the early afternoon. The second shortwave should tend to weaken
subsidence and may permit a storm or two to develop by late
afternoon, and if this occurs, damaging winds and large hail
would be a concern. Otherwise, a hot and dry day with mixed
clouds and sun is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
This period will begin with a shortwave crossing the Carolinas.
The CAM Ensemble models indicate a convection line approaching the
immediate coast around 8 PM Saturday and then moving offshore. The
CAM ensemble models indicate MUCAPE values of 2000 J/KG along the
immediate coast Sunday evening. SPC has the area highlighted with a
slight chance of severe, with primary threats of wind and hail. A
second and stronger shortwave will approach the area on Sunday. With
sufficient deep moisture and instability on Sunday, another round of
severe weather is possible. Highs on Sunday will be around 80, with
upper 80s at the beaches. Saturday and Sunday night, lows will be in
around the 70s along and west of I-95, with mid-70s at the
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the mid and upper levels, a deep trough centered over the
Mississippi River Valley on Monday will shift and lift into the
Northeast United States on Wednesday, with the trough axis dragging
behind south of the mid-Atlantic by late in the work week. At the
surface, this will bring several cold fronts later Monday and
Wednesday to eastern Carolinas. The fronts will stall over the area.
The precipitable waters will continue to remain between 1.5 and 2".
Highs will bounce around between 90 and the mid-80s. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible each day, with the best chance being on
Monday afternoon and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to start the period with mainly high
clouds spilling over the ridge at around 25k or higher and
thickening by mid to late morning. Storms to the west this
evening should fade as they reach the area but may push some SCT
to BKN 4 to 5 k ft level clouds. Light WSW winds overnight will
become gusty on Sat with sct strato cu mainly around 4-5k ft
and a low probability of an aftn tstm with MVFR ceilings
possible after 19z.

Best chc will be aligned with sea breeze near the coastal
terminals and then later in the day when a stronger storm is
possible, especially across NC terminals heading into Sat eve
as a shortwave approaches. Confidence is too low to include
tstms in SC terminals but MYR and CRE could see a shwr along sea
breeze after 18z. Did include a PROB30 for possible tstm NC
terminals after 19z, but main threat will be later in the day. SW
winds above the sfc should keep any fog out of the forecast.


Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions are possible in
afternoon/evening thunderstorms late Saturday through
Wednesday, along with a chance of overnight/morning fog and
stratus Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...
Southwesterly winds will dominate the period as a cold front
approaches from the west. A tightening pressure gradient
tomorrow will lead to these winds increasing into the 15-20 kt
range during the afternoon and evening, although gusts should
stay just below SCA criteria. South-southwesterly wind waves
will be a primary contributor to the anticipated 2-4 ft seas
during the period, with a continued 1-2 ft southeasterly swell
with a period of 8-9 sec remaining in place.

Saturday Night through Wednesday... The coastal waters will be
caught in the middle, with a surface high-pressure axis to the south
and southeast, as well as surface troughs and cold fronts over the
Carolinas throughout the period.

The surface pressure gradient will oscillate up and down over the
waters, and the winds will respond with winds between 15 to 20
knots. Stronger winds are expected Saturday night, Sunday evening,
and Tuesday. Seas will vary with significant heights of 3 to 4 feet
but will increase to 4 to 5 feet during the strongest winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RH
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW