210
FXUS62 KILM 020023
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
723 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have added patchy sea fog to the local waters from Cape Fear
southward to South Santee River thru midnight, prior to the CFP.
Issued a 323pm MWS to highlight mariners to any local dense sea
fog, however its mainly been a low stratus issue.

00z TAF discussion updated.

1257pm Update...
Daytime temperatures have been lowered for both Monday and
Tuesday due to strong CAD wedge in place.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Small Craft Advisory now in effect for local coastal waters
tonight through Tuesday morning.

2) Cold air damming wedge creates chilly start to the week.

3) Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for local
coastal waters tonight through Tuesday morning.

See Marine section for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold air damming wedge creates chilly start to
the week.

Cold air damming in place Monday with cloudy skies will lead to
well below normal temps for the start of meteorological spring,
with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s, closer to NBM10th
percentile and MET guidance. Wedge looks to maintain its hold
for most of the day Tuesday, and have undercut blended guidance
on daytime temps with wedge and low clouds lingering. Highs
Tuesday are currently forecasted in the low 60s inland with mid
60s near the coast, but even these might be a bit too warm still
(particularly inland). Could see a few light showers Tuesday
and coastal trough attempts to move inland with weakening of the
wedge, but pops and QPF remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues
into next weekend.

With CAD wedge dissipating Tuesday night and Bermuda high
establishing itself, temps Wednesday will be much warmer than
the start of the week with highs in the upper 70s. Highs around
80F forecasted for Thursday through next weekend, with temps
along the immediate coast 10F or so lower thanks to sea breeze.
Lows each night will be only slightly cooler than typical high
temps for early March. Subsidence from mid level ridge will
limit pops Thursday, with only slight chance in the afternoon
for southern counties. Ridge influence weakens late week into
the weekend, and will see chance pops each afternoon as a bit of
surface instability combines with diurnal heating and sea
breeze to produce a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the evening hours. The Ci/high AC
should keep fog development to a minimum eventhough winds go
calm prior to the CFP late this evening but more like during
the pre-dawn Mon hrs from a north to south motion. CAA and a
tightened gradient after the CFP as high pressure wedges across
the area from the NE. Abundant moisture in the low levels will
lead to low stratus, mainly IFR, prior to daybreak across all
terminals. There may be fluctuations above/below 1k feet during
daylight Mon hrs and have annotated this possibility within the
local terminals.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions are likely to continue
into Tuesday night before high pressure shifts off the coast
followed by a WFP. Dominating VFR to return through the end of
the week except for possible onshore movement of sea fog Thu
and Fri especially across the CRE/MYR terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Light winds from the SW quadrant this
afternoon will become NE overnight and increase to 15 to 20 KT
with gusts to 25 KT for Monday. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon
will build overnight to 4 to 6 FT by Monday morning with 7
footers possible nearer 20 NM Monday. Small Craft Advisory
remains up, beginning at 06Z tonight.

Monday Night through Friday...Marine conditions will be
improving Monday night as winds and seas lower, with sub-
advisory conditions forecasted by Tuesday morning. Therefore,
the end time of the Small Craft Advisory has been trimmed back
to 12z Tuesday. Northeast winds Tuesday will shift to light
onshore winds Tuesday night, veering further to southerly winds
Wednesday night through the end of the week. Seas 3-5 ft Tuesday
and Tuesday night, lower to 3-4 ft for Wednesday through
Friday, primarily as SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...VAO/31