216
FXUS62 KILM 121515
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge of high pressure will persist across the Carolinas
today into tonight. A warm front will lift across and north of the
area tonight before a cold front brings a good shot of rain
Thursday. Dry high pressure briefly takes hold on Friday before
more unsettled weather is expected this coming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks made with morning forecast update. Lowered temps
for today a couple of degrees, especially along and west of I-95
where temps will struggle to reach 45F. Best chance for 50s will
be coastal northeast SC, particularly Georgetown, late
afternoon/early evening as temps begin to rise with front
expected to move onshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CAD wedge of high pressure to persist across the area today with low
stratus deck to hang on thru atleast this evening and likely thru
the overnight. Best chance of light rain or drizzle, albeit low
chance, will reside along and west of the I-95 corridor into this
evening. Weak embedded impulses within the SW flow aloft and where
the deeper moisture resides, to remain northwest thru northeast of
the ILM CWA. Cool temps for todays highs, with low to mid 40s maxes
NW portions to around 50 at the immediate coast. Overall, staying on
the lower side of max temp guidance especially what occurred Tue. A
warm front situated south of the FA then draped northward just
offshore where the coastal trof resided, will both lift northward
and push inland this evening thru the overnight. This will result in
tonights lows likely occurring this evening followed by slowly
rising temps/dewpoints overnight. Not much pcpn associated with this
WFP, but may carry a small POP for showers after its passage, ie.
within the warm sector. Guidance also indicating the threat for
onshore movement of sea fog as winds become SE-S after the WFP, this
a decent trajectory advecting 50s to around 60 degree dewpoints
across those cooler shelf waters that are in the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rainy day on the way Thursday, with a cold front quickly approaching
from the west. Even so, this frontal system does not appear to be a
gullywasher, with rainfall amounts generally in the 0.20-0.30" range
expected. Some areas may cash in on up to half an inch in
particularly heavy rain. Despite clouds and rain, rich southwesterly
flow allows highs to hit the low-to-mid 70s. Front should push
offshore late Thursday afternoon, allowing rain chances to cease
from west to east by the evening. Winds shift and colder air quickly
settles in. Lows in the low-to-mid 30s inland, near 40 at the coast.

High pressure moves through the Ohio River Valley Friday, bringing
plenty of sunshine, but also chilly air. Highs only reach the low-to-
mid 50s. The high pressure starts to lock itself back up in the
Northeast late Friday night, reactivating the CAD wedge cycle.
Clouds build in late. Lows in the low-to-mid 30s inland, lower 40s
at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wedge fully in place Saturday, while SSW flow in the lower levels
brings an old frontal boundary northward. Temperatures will be
battling between the wedge and this frontal boundary, but it looks
like the deeper feature will win (the new warm front). As a result,
temperatures look to be on the rise, hitting the upper 60s to near
70 in most spots. Some of the far inland areas may only see the mid
60s, where the wedge tries to keep a stronger hold there. Moisture
overrunning brings rain chances back into play Saturday, mostly
looking like stratiform rain.

Warm front lifts through the entire forecast area Saturday night,
with lows only dropping to near 60. This sets the stage for more
moisture advection ahead of a stronger cold front that races through
the area Sunday. This front is stronger than Thursday`s front, and
we may stand a chance at seeing some better rainfall out of this,
but we still have a long way to go to touch our ongoing drought
issues. Sunday will feel rather muggy by February standards, with
highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s. Front
pushes offshore Sunday evening, dropping off the rain chances from
west to east once again. Lows may flirt with freezing inland,
dropping down to the mid 30s at the coast.

High pressure comes back into play Monday and Tuesday, keeping the
skies clear. Temperatures drop below seasonal norms once again in
this ongoing roller coaster.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Moderate to High confidence with flight restrictions during
this period with nearly continuous IFR ceilings and at times
LIFR ceilings and/or vsby. CAD wedge to hold up across the
Carolinas with overrunning low stratus and pcpn, mainly in the
form of either light rain or drizzle. Fog and/or dense fog
remains possible, especially this evening into the overnight as
a warm front edges northward as well as pushing inland. This may
lead to sea fog affecting MYR and CRE during the pre-dawn Thu
hrs leading up to 12Z Thu after the WFP during the pre-dawn Thu
hrs. At the end of this 24 hr period, winds will have veered
from the NE 5 to 10 kt to the SE and S at 5 to 10 kt. After the
WFP, the SE-S winds will push milder air and hier dewpoints
across those cooler shelf waters resulting in the mentioned sea
fog.

Extended Outlook...Moderate to high confidence in MVFR/IFR
continuing into Thu, possibly LIFR from dense fog inland and
sea fog at the coast. A strong cold front will move through the
area Thu night with flight restrictions associated with it`s
pcpn. High confidence in VFR and high pressure on Friday.
Unsettled weather and associated flight restrictions are
expected to return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Still under the influence of the CAD wedge across
the Carolinas and whats left of the coastal trof offshore, or 1
could call it a frontal boundary extending from the low that is now
moving well offshore from NC-VA border. Expect N-NE winds around 10
kt today with seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. The warm front will be on
the doorsteps of the local waters near Cape Romain by sunset today,
also extending just offshore east of the waters where the coastal
trof resided. The warm front will lift north while pushing
onshore from the east this evening thru the overnight. Winds
tonight will veer from E to SE to S while the sfc pg tightens.
Look for speeds to increase to 15 to 20 kt g25 kt by the end of
this period. Seas will follow suit and build to 3 to 6 ft mainly
due to the stronger S winds and the hier seas bleeding into the
local waters from offshore. Winds just off the deck, ie at
925mb, will become S-SW at 30 to 40 kt. The hier gusts will
still have a difficult time mixing and penetrating the cold sfc
based marine layer initially.

Thursday through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory continues officially
until 7 PM EST Thursday. Ahead of a cold front, southwesterly winds
gust up to 25-27 kts, while seas are 4-5 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out
20 nm offshore. Front moves through Thursday evening, allowing the
winds to veer westerly, becoming northerly by Friday morning. There
is a brief lull where we drop out of advisory conditions, but seem
to pick right up again Friday morning. Gradient loosens again Friday
afternoon, with ENE winds at 10-15 kts and seas dropping down to 2-4
ft. Winds continue to veer to the SSE by Saturday, with the gradient
quickly coming back up again ahead of a stronger cold front. Sunday
looks like slam dunk Small Craft Advisory conditions, with some gale
force winds possible. Don`t want to go overboard with the confidence
in the gale force winds, but I have a feeling the forecast will
continue to trend in that direction.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IGB
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB