043
FXUS62 KILM 040536
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
136 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. An approaching cold front will lead to
warming this weekend as the high moves offshore into Friday.
The front should move through into Sunday with increasing rain
chances. The front stalls offshore with high pressure behind
the front leading to cooler temperatures and low rain chances
near the coast into mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Persistence forecast for the area today and tonight as there is
little to no change in the synoptic pattern. Weak high pressure
will remain over the area with simple air mass modification
leading to highs later this afternoon in the middle to upper
80s. Lows Friday morning will be in the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The end of the week will be warm and dry with clouds increasing late
in the forecast. Weak mid-level subsidence develops Fri as 5h ridge
tries to expand west. The subsidence and resulting dry air will be
enough to prevent deep convection despite a gradual increase in low
level moisture. Precipitable water remains 80-90% of normal, roughly
1.3-1.4" until the early morning hours of Sun when moisture arrives
just ahead of a slow moving cold front. Precipitable water jumps to
1.8" by 12Z Sun, but the lack of forcing and poor mid-level lapse
rates will keep Sat night dry, although clouds will certainly be
increasing and lowering. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front moves into the area late Sat night, then stalls along or
just off the coast as it ends up parallel to the flow aloft during
Sun. Cold air is slow to arrive and Sun will see temperatures near
to slightly above normal despite increased cloud cover and diurnal
convection. Surface high builds in from the northwest Sun night into
Mon, bringing the cooler air with it. Weak mid-level trough axis
remains west of the area into Tue before shifting east, ending up
over the coast. At the same time the center of the surface high
shifts farther north and east, but continues to build down the
coast. The 5h trough strengthens a bit during the middle of next
week with some suggestions of a weak cutoff low developing.
Meanwhile, a series of waves travel northeast along the stalled
front, passing just off the coast. Each of these will have the
potential to enhance rainfall chances, mainly along the coast, Tue
and Wed depending on the timing. Confidence on timing, rainfall
amounts, and how far inland the moisture will spread is low, but the
potential for a period of cloudy and cool conditions certainly
appears to be increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through the period.
There remains the lower chance of BR in the usual places namely
Wilmington and North Myrtle beach but if this occurs it will likely
follow the pattern of appearing briefly then mixing out as the dry
air is deep/entrenched.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances return on Sunday ahead of a
cold front. A wedge of high pressure could bring periodic
restrictions early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Forecast not changing much with over the coastal waters as
well. Essentially light and variable winds although a southerly
component is the choice for wording will be in place through
tonight. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet.

Friday through Monday...
Southerly flow around 10 kt Fri and Sat, with diurnal
enhancement closer to 15 kt each afternoon and evening, becomes
northerly Sun following the passage of a cold front. Initially
the northerly flow is on the weak side, but the northeast surge
arrives Sun night into Mon with speeds 15 to 20 kt late Sun
night increasing to 20-25 kt later on Mon. Seas around 2 ft Fri
and Sat will trend up, in the 2-3 ft range, Sun with the
development of northerly flow. A more significant increase in
seas occurs on Mon with 4-6 ft likely by the end of the day.
Seas will be a mix of an east and a southeast swell into Sun
before an east-northeast wind wave starts to develop, eventually
becoming dominant later Mon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...III/SHK