119
FXUS62 KILM 181911
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
311 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor front will sink southward as high pressure
extends into the Carolinas behind it from the north. Erin is
expected to remain far enough offshore to keep substantial wind
and rain impacts away, but will bring dangerous surf to the
beaches for much of the work week. Rain chances increase over
the weekend as a cold front stalls south of the area and
moisture increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the northeastern US will build in behind a
weak cold front located near the I-95 corridor this afternoon.
Moisture pooling ahead of the front along with convergence
along and ahead of the front as sea breeze front pushes inland,
will produce some convection into this evening. A NE to N
steering flow should keep the convection mainly inland of the
coast this afternoon, but as the front gets pushed southward
into this evening, models show increase of pcp water up over 2
inches spreading across much of the forecast area. Therefore
expect scattered convection into this evening. Outflows from
larger storms could enhance coverage.

Lingering moisture over the area overnight could produce some
low clouds and fog across the area into Tues morning. Overnight
lows will in the low to mid 70s. The lingering frontal boundary
and moisture on Tues will keep clouds and shwrs in the forecast
for Tues, especially along the coast in the aftn. Temps will
reach up toward 90 most places.

Dangerous rip currents and high surf will affect our area
beaches. Please see separate discussion below about
Tides/Coastal Flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be ridging in from the north through the short
term while Hurricane Erin makes its closest approach. The storm will
remain comfortably offshore enough that impacts will be confined to
area beaches and the marine environment. Inland areas look to stay
dry in the sinking air around Erin whereas the coast may be on the
western fringe of the moisture even as the center passes some 340
miles east of the area. Rain-free weather slated for Wednesday night
as the storm accelerates off to the NE and dewpoints fall to 70 or
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in from points north for the
first few days of the period. Generally rain-free weather is
expected and dewpoints will be a few degrees lower than usual for
the time of year. Heading into the weekend some rain chances could
materialize as the surface high starts to get overrun by southerly
flow, but given the weak nature of said flow could see how guidance
is a bit too fast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front reaching into the local area will produce showers
and storms along and ahead of it, mainly affecting the inland
terminals. May see some convection reach the coastal terminals,
especially ILM later today. Most of the coast should remain dry
in general, but chances of convection will increase into Tues as
front lingers across the area with enhanced moisture and
increasing NE flow ahead of Erin. Places that receive rain this
aftn into this evening will be more susceptible to fog and low
clouds into the morning hours.

Extended Outlook...Gusty winds and intermittent clouds and some
showers will be possible between high pressure to the north and
Erin to the east. A cold front will approach the area later
this week with cooler temperatures and increased rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Winds will remain light and slightly more
variable today as weak cold front drops south but should linger
just inland of the coast through Tues. Northeast flow develops
between high pressure extending down from the north behind the
front and distant Erin moving up through the Atlantic waters
east of the Bahamas. NE flow will persist and increase through
later on Tues as Hurricane Erin tracks to the northwest to
north.

Seas will be on the rise as very long period swells from
distant Hurricane Erin continue to reach our shores. Lighter
E-SE winds will pickup and shift to the NE tonight through
Tues. By late Tues, Seas will be up to 5 to 10 ft a increasing
longer period, up to 15 second SE swell.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure will be located north of the waters through the
period. Erin swells will be the main story for most of it as well.
Currently the storm is forecast to remain approx 300 miles east of
the waters but the storm is so large that some advisor-worthy winds
could develop (which for now we are addressing with the SCA).  Winds
a bit of a moot point though as the swells will be so large they are
the chief factor driving the advisory, which may even still be
needed into Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Through midweek, minor coastal flooding is expected along the
Lower Cape Fear River during the late afternoon and evening high
tide cycles, basically within a 3 hour window centered on high
tide. May see minor coastal flooding during the daytime high
tide cycle on Wed.

Runup from large waves associated with Hurricane Erin, could
result in minor coastal flooding, beach erosion and minor ocean
overwash across vulnerable coastal locations such as areas
without a protective dune line.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of rip currents is expected from
through Friday as large swells from Hurricane Erin impact the
coast.

HIGH SURF: Dangerous and rough surf with 6+ foot breaking wave
heights is also expected for much of the SE NC and NE SC coast,
especially for east to southeast facing beaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM