851
FXUS62 KILM 101046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
646 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions
will impact the area as low pressure moves slowly north along
the Southeast Coast today through Sunday. Several inches of rain
could fall along the coast. Improvement is expected to begin
Sunday as dry high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Last night`s cold front has plowed south all the way through Daytona
Beach, FL and northeast winds have brought modified Canadian air
across the Carolinas with early morning dewpoints ranging from the
50s along the coast to the upper 40s inland. Changes are coming as
Canadian High Pressure moves farther off the New England coast and
surface low pressure begins to develop later today along the Florida
East Coast on the stalled front.

Increasing Atlantic influence means dewpoints should creep up to
around 60 along the coast today. There are also signs that westward-
moving showers will develop off the coast and move inland this
morning, pushed by a developing easterly low level jet with speeds
at 3000-4000 feet AGL increasing to 40-45 knots. The largest
potential for showers is expected to be near Murrells Inlet and
Georgetown where forecast PoPs are as high as 50-60 percent. Less
depth of moisture north toward Cape Fear should limit coverage of
showers to 20-40 percent.

The low should consolidate a little better tonight off the Florida
East Coast. Our 850 mb flow will veer southeasterly tonight, pushing
an airmass from the Bahamas up over the front and across cooler
surface air in place across the Carolinas. Dusting off the old
isentropic lift procedures in AWIPS shows increasing moisture ascent
centered on the 305K surface (roughly 725-775 mb) that should yield
a solid region of rain with embedded convective elements reaching
the coast late tonight. Through 12z (8 am) Saturday forecast PoPs
are as high as 80 percent in the Cape Fear area, but less than 30-40
percent west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The forecast with regards to the storm system moving
north off the coast is careening toward locked in status. The
best forcing and moisture for the weekend occurs early Saturday
trending off south to north afterward. Pops are now in
categorical criteria along the coast trending down inland. Total
QPF amounts continue to reside in the 2-4 inch ranges along the
coast with lower amounts elsewhere. Temperatures have continued
to close the diurnal gap which I favor with highs in and around
70 and lows more in the middle 60s although the range will
understandably increase by early Monday. Finally with the lack
of significant rain in the past week or so no long fused flood
headlines seem necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period remains void of any significant
weather as the cyclonic flow associated with the weekend system very
slowly relaxes. There appears to be a dry front that moves across
mid week offering only a subtle change in thermal profiles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low clouds in the 2500-3500 foot AGL range blanket the eastern
Carolinas this morning. There is a high potential for MVFR
ceilings at KFLO, a moderate potential at KMYR, KCRE, and KLBT, and
a low potential elsewhere through 15-16z this morning, along
with scattered showers pushing onshore mainly south of Cape
Fear.

By this afternoon ceilings should rise into the 3500-5000 foot
AGL range with a lull in shower activity. Breezy northeast winds
may gust to 25 knots at times all day. Deepening low pressure
offshore is expected to throw a large slug of deep moisture
across the coastline late tonight with light to moderate
rain expected to develop at KILM, KCRE, and KFLO between
03z-09z. Precipitation should saturate the low levels and MVFR
ceilings dropping to IFR along the coast by 12z Saturday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A Nor`easter moving slowly up the coast
Saturday through Sunday morning will lead to high probabilities
of MVFR to IFR conditions in ceilings for all local airports.
KILM, KCRE, and KMYR have moderate to high probabilities for
visibility reductions in rain as well. Gusty north to northeast
surface winds will continue and could reach 25 to 30 knots
Saturday into Saturday night. The probability of weather impacts
will decrease by Sunday afternoon and generally VFR weather is
expected Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight ...
Last night`s cold front made it all the way
through the northern one-third of Florida before stalling out
between Daytona Beach and Cape Canaveral. Low pressure will soon
begin to take shape along the front, albeit a hundred or so miles
south of where models showed it developing a day ago. The net effect
through tonight isn`t too dissimilar though: a tight pressure
gradient between the developing low and Canadian High Pressure off
the New England coast should continue to produce NE winds 25-30
knots with gusts to 35 knots. A Gale Warning will remain in effect
through this evening although there is at least some potential the
warning may need to be extended out in time for the coastal waters
east of Georgetown, SC.

Seas have built to 10 feet out at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy with 6-
7 ft seas reported at the Wrightsville Beach nearshore buoy and the
"harbor" buoy south of Southport, NC. These seas are nearly fully
developed for the force of the wind and should not change
appreciably throughout today.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Strong small craft conditions will be in place staring the
period early Saturday. This will be in place for some time after it
is issued following today and this evening`s gale headline. There
remains a smattering of guidance that supports another gale headline
later Saturday into early Sunday (marginal of course) bot confidence
remains low thus no gale watch. Slow improvement remains in the
offing next week with wind keeping a northerly component.
Significant seas will eventually fall to 2-4 feet from this
weekend`s higher values.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong and steady northeast winds are banking water up against the
coastline of the Carolinas and will lead to another round of coastal
flooding with the 10 AM high tide at the beaches. The highest water
levels relative to normal are expected along the Grand Strand
southward through Georgetown County where anomalies of +2.0 to +2.4
feet are expected, pushing water levels above 8.5 feet MLLW at the
Myrtle Beach gauge on Springmaid Pier. This exceeds moderate flood
stage and a Coastal Flood WARNING will be issued this morning for
Georgetown and Horry counties. A "warning" indicates tidal flooding
will be deeper and more expansive than during any of the numerous
advisory-level events we`ve had this year.

Farther north in the Cape Fear area, slightly weaker northeast winds
and a shorter fetch will push water levels into the +1.5 to +1.8
foot range and a Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in effect
through this morning`s high tide. Flooding will also develop along
the tidal portion of the Cape Fear River affecting downtown
Wilmington during the 1245 PM high tide.

A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect for the Pender,
New Hanover, and Georgetown County beaches where east-northeasterly
swells will have the most direct wave impact on the coast. Surf
conditions could remain hazardous through the weekend as the
Nor`easterly moves slowly north along the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...