Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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686 FXUS62 KILM 310852 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 352 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm daytime temperatures continue today, with the next round of rain arriving late today in association with a cold front. Warm and dry weather will return for the weekend into early next week. Another backdoor cold front should briefly drop down into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights: *Unseasonably warm today w/ highs in the 70s away from the coast *Breezy to windy conditions today with gusts over 40 mph possible, especially near the coast *Some rainfall expected later today and tonight, especially closer to I-95 *Sea fog could develop offshore and impact coastal areas Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Unseasonably warm conditions are expected today and tonight ahead of a cold front which will be moving through tonight. A strong low-level jet (50+ kt at 925 mb) will be moving into the area leading to gusty conditions developing, especially this afternoon/evening. Gusts near or even above 40 mph are possible, especially near the coast, and may even see some gusts around the lower end of our Wind Advisory criteria (46+ mph), mainly on elevated roadways such as bridges so be extra alert if driving. Showers should mostly hold off until this evening when they will start increasing from west to east. Expect up to near a half inch back toward I-95 with a few tenths closer to the coast. The increasingly warm and humid air mass should lead to at least a little sea fog developing offshore which could impact the coastal areas, especially near/north of Myrtle Beach. Lows tonight generally around 50 will be closer to the normal highs this time of year! && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm and sunny Saturday with high temps in the upper 60s due to rather weak temp advection behind front. CAD wedge develop Saturday night and persists through Sunday as surface high pressure moves across the Northeast, aiding in cooler temps but still above normal (near 40F Sat night and low 60s Sunday). Coastal trough just offshore Sunday may aid in a few showers over the waters, and expecting them to stay offshore. Brief CAD breaks down late Sunday as parent high is shunted into the Atlantic, with lows Sunday night in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Well above normal temperatures prevail through the long term period, with zonal flow aloft and a building mid level ridge over the Southeast. A backdoor cold front approaches late Tuesday, and may make it into our area before returning north sometime Wednesday. Forecast confidence becomes lower beginning Wednesday night as weak impulses aloft approach from the west and PWATs start to increase. Only minimal pops in the forecast for Thursday at the moment. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 00Z Saturday, with low confidence in MVFR or even IFR cigs near the coast where some sea fog could develop. Moderate confidence in cig/vsby restrictions to MVFR (and low confidence in IFR) tonight after 00Z as a cold front passes through with low clouds/showers. A strong southerly low-level jet will also lead to gusts to around 30 kt, starting late morning and peaking later this afternoon/evening. The jet will also lead to LLWS during periods of lower surface winds. Extended Outlook...There is high confidence in some restrictions from low clouds or visibility in showers early Saturday ahead of a cold front. There is high confidence in VFR conditions returning Saturday with more restrictions possible Saturday night through Sunday night due to a coastal trough and upper disturbance. VFR likely Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Moderate to High confidence. Conditions will be going downhill today due to the approach of a cold front with a Small Craft Advisory in effect starting this afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding how much of the strong low-level jet can mix down over the cooler shelf waters but should at least see frequent gusts of at least 25 kt. We think some gale force gusts are possible starting mid afternoon but not enough to warrant a Gale Watch/Warning. Should also see some sea fog develop, especially off Brunswick County where the coolest shelf waters are found. However, the severity/extent is uncertain as winds may actually be too strong. Saturday through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will come to an end Saturday morning with cold front well offshore and weak WNW flow over the area. Seas 4-6 ft early Saturday will quickly fall through the day, with 2-3 ft expected by Saturday evening as SE swell joins weakening S swell. Wedge of high pressure briefly builds inland Saturday night through Sunday, and a coastal trough may produce a few showers over the waters Sunday along with brief uptick in NE winds. Winds generally 10 kts or less Monday through midweek out of the SSE. Seas 3-4 ft Sunday (with the NE wind wave) and 2-3 ft Monday to Tuesday primarily as SE swell. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides along the coast could drop to rather low levels (-1.0 ft MLLW or less) late tonight into early Saturday as winds shift offshore behind a passing cold front. A Low Water Advisory may be needed, especially along the SC coast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB