Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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686
FXUS62 KILM 310852
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
352 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm daytime temperatures continue today, with the next round
of rain arriving late today in association with a cold front.
Warm and dry weather will return for the weekend into early next
week. Another backdoor cold front should briefly drop down into
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably warm today w/ highs in the 70s away from the
 coast
*Breezy to windy conditions today with gusts over 40 mph
 possible, especially near the coast
*Some rainfall expected later today and tonight, especially
 closer to I-95
*Sea fog could develop offshore and impact coastal areas

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Unseasonably warm conditions are expected today and
tonight ahead of a cold front which will be moving through
tonight. A strong low-level jet (50+ kt at 925 mb) will be
moving into the area leading to gusty conditions developing,
especially this afternoon/evening. Gusts near or even above 40
mph are possible, especially near the coast, and may even see
some gusts around the lower end of our Wind Advisory criteria
(46+ mph), mainly on elevated roadways such as bridges so be
extra alert if driving. Showers should mostly hold off until
this evening when they will start increasing from west to east.
Expect up to near a half inch back toward I-95 with a few tenths
closer to the coast. The increasingly warm and humid air mass
should lead to at least a little sea fog developing offshore
which could impact the coastal areas, especially near/north of
Myrtle Beach. Lows tonight generally around 50 will be closer to
the normal highs this time of year!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and sunny Saturday with high temps in the upper 60s due to
rather weak temp advection behind front. CAD wedge develop
Saturday night and persists through Sunday as surface high
pressure moves across the Northeast, aiding in cooler temps but
still above normal (near 40F Sat night and low 60s Sunday).
Coastal trough just offshore Sunday may aid in a few showers
over the waters, and expecting them to stay offshore. Brief CAD
breaks down late Sunday as parent high is shunted into the
Atlantic, with lows Sunday night in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Well above normal temperatures prevail through the long term
period, with zonal flow aloft and a building mid level ridge
over the Southeast. A backdoor cold front approaches late
Tuesday, and may make it into our area before returning north
sometime Wednesday. Forecast confidence becomes lower beginning
Wednesday night as weak impulses aloft approach from the west
and PWATs start to increase. Only minimal pops in the forecast
for Thursday at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 00Z Saturday,
with low confidence in MVFR or even IFR cigs near the coast
where some sea fog could develop. Moderate confidence in
cig/vsby restrictions to MVFR (and low confidence in IFR)
tonight after 00Z as a cold front passes through with low
clouds/showers.

A strong southerly low-level jet will also lead to gusts to
around 30 kt, starting late morning and peaking later this
afternoon/evening. The jet will also lead to LLWS during periods
of lower surface winds.

Extended Outlook...There is high confidence in some
restrictions from low clouds or visibility in showers early
Saturday ahead of a cold front. There is high confidence in VFR
conditions returning Saturday with more restrictions possible
Saturday night through Sunday night due to a coastal trough and
upper disturbance. VFR likely Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Moderate to High confidence. Conditions will
be going downhill today due to the approach of a cold front with
a Small Craft Advisory in effect starting this afternoon. There
is some uncertainty regarding how much of the strong low-level
jet can mix down over the cooler shelf waters but should at
least see frequent gusts of at least 25 kt. We think some gale
force gusts are possible starting mid afternoon but not enough
to warrant a Gale Watch/Warning. Should also see some sea fog
develop, especially off Brunswick County where the coolest shelf
waters are found. However, the severity/extent is uncertain as
winds may actually be too strong.

Saturday through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will
come to an end Saturday morning with cold front well offshore
and weak WNW flow over the area. Seas 4-6 ft early Saturday will
quickly fall through the day, with 2-3 ft expected by Saturday
evening as SE swell joins weakening S swell. Wedge of high
pressure briefly builds inland Saturday night through Sunday,
and a coastal trough may produce a few showers over the waters
Sunday along with brief uptick in NE winds. Winds generally 10
kts or less Monday through midweek out of the SSE. Seas 3-4 ft
Sunday (with the NE wind wave) and 2-3 ft Monday to Tuesday
primarily as SE swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides along the coast could drop to rather low levels (-1.0 ft
MLLW or less) late tonight into early Saturday as winds shift
offshore behind a passing cold front. A Low Water Advisory may
be needed, especially along the SC coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB