816
FXUS62 KILM 041020
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
620 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 615am... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

As of 248am... All sections updated with no significant changes
made to the previous forecast with the latest update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature ranges are
expected for the remainder of this week under high pressure.

2) Summerlike conditions and a cold front will lead to our next rain
chances early next week, which will then be followed by a bit cooler
and drier high pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature
ranges are expected for the remainder of this week under high
pressure.

High pressure will continue over the area through Friday before
shifting offshore to start the weekend. Cooler than normal
temperatures are expected through tonight before temps get back
above normal starting on Friday, although could still squeak
out another below normal night Fri night depending on how much
radiational cooling occurs. Fortunately, dewpoints should still
be fairly low even on Saturday so heat indices shouldn`t be much
more than the lower 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike conditions and a cold front will lead to
our next rain chances early next week, which will then be followed
by a bit cooler and drier high pressure.

A cold front looks to approach from the north Sunday night before
pushing through on Monday which will bring our best rain chances.
However, even on Sunday we can`t rule out a few showers/storms along
the sea breeze as dewpoints should push into the lower 70s. A bit
cooler and drier weather is then expected toward mid week as high
pressure returns from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is expected to continue through the TAF period with north
winds this morning turning east to southeasterly this afternoon
as the sea breeze moves inland. No clouds are expected this
afternoon amidst a dry troposphere and this supports a forecast
of no fog tonight despite calm winds.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Sunday night with a low chance
for shallow ground fog or low stratus early Sunday morning.
Transient restrictions are possible due to showers/storms on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Conditions gradually improving with a light to
moderate breeze out of the N/NE hanging on into midday. Wind will
then veer more onshore later today as the sea breeze develops and
high pressure builds southward into the area. Significant sea
heights will continue to lower to 2-4 ft over the nearshore coastal
waters out 20 nm and to 4-5 ft over the 20-60 nm offshore waters.

Friday through Monday...High pressure over the area will shift
offshore Friday and linger into Mon before a cold front starts to
impact the area. No headlines expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB