546
FXUS62 KILM 250003
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
803 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure along the coast will move northeastward and
away from the Carolinas tonight, allowing drier weather to
infiltrate the Carolinas. A Canadian cold front will move off
the coast and offshore Monday night with a drier and cooler
air mass expected thru Wed. Re- enforcing cold but mainly dry
frontal passages to occur thru the remainder of the week and
into next weekend. Overall, expect below normal temperatures
and humidity Tue into early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
This morning`s low pressure off the coast is currently east
of the Outer Banks and continues to exit to the northeast,
ending what little precipitation we had. Mostly clear skies
tonight with lows around 70F. Monday will be mostly sunny in a
pre-frontal regime, pushing high temps to around 90F. Could see
a couple hours of heat indices approaching triple digits near
the coast Monday afternoon with dewpoints in the low 70s (mixing
will drop dewpoints into the mid 60s near I-95). Have 20% pops
in the forecast for Monday afternoon across coastal counties
where sea breeze and some instability could lead to isolated
storms. Dry air aloft will limit both coverage of the storms and
inland extent. Cold front will approach the I-95 corridor
around sunset Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper longwave trof to become established this period, affecting
the Eastern third of the U.S. this period. Slow moving sfc cold
front draped ENE-WSW across the FA at the start of this period,
will continue to push SE-ward and off the ILM CWA coast and
south of the FA, roughly in a semi-stalled line extending
offshore from HAT to the northern GA coast by daybreak Tue.
Isolated showers and thunder for the most part should lie over
the adjacent ATL waters and offshore where moisture and minimal
CAPE avbl. Enough moisture, below 700mb, remains for daytime
shunted growth Cu to occur Tue but no pops being advertised.
Overall expect an influx of drier and cooler air across the FA
as high pressure out of south central Canada ridges across the
FA. There is a channel of 5H vorticity and moisture that pushes
across the FA late Tue aftn/evening that could give rise to an
isolated shower across the coastal counties. However, any pcpn
that does develop should be across the adjacent Atl waters and
offshore. The upper trof axis pushes to the coast by Wed morning,
further pushing the stalled sfc front further east and south of
the FA. This allows the remainder of the sfc high to spread
across the FA thru Wed night. Overall, look for max/min temps to
drift lower during this period, to below climo norms. In
addition, we`ll actually see 50s sfc dewpoints reaching the
FA...a break from air conditioning especially Tue Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Longwave upper troffing to persist across the eastern third of
the U.S. this period. The upper trof axis now progged to either
be overhead or just offshore from the Carolina Coasts. This
positioning will make a big difference with higher or lower POPs
and sky cover. For now, have trended to a drier forecast
thru much of this period. Embedded mid-level s/ws to produce
clouds but best chance of pcpn will be over the Atl waters and
well south of the FA where a snaking but mainly stalled sfc
boundary lies with weak waves of low pressure to occur along it,
mainly remaining offshore from the FA. These 5h s/ws to aid in
keeping temps running below the climo norms with cooler and
drier air influx in their wake.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through the valid taf period.  Mostly clear skies
tonight with light winds. Low levels are forecasted to be too dry
for fog formation, with only low chances of shallow patchy fog
mainly inland. Diurnal cumulus clouds and light winds after sunrise
Monday, with isolated convection possible after 18Z.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR prevailing through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Low pressure offshore is currently east of
the Outer Banks and continues to exit to the northeast.
Locally, winds will shift to southwesterly tonight around 10-15
kt as a cold front approaches late Monday. Seas 2-4 ft lower to
2-3 ft by Monday morning as the 6 sec E swell weakens, with long
period ENE swell lingering and wind wave mixed in.

Monday Night through Thursday Night...A better marine week
shaping up when compared to last weeks agenda. Will be dealing
more with baroclinic issues rather than tropical. Sfc cold front
lying across the local waters, oriented ENE thru WSW, will push
further east and drop southward as a longwave upper trof
becomes better established across the Eastern third of the U.S.
during this period. SW 10-15 kt winds to shift to N-NE winds
around 10 kt, possibly around 15 kt initially after FROPA and
continuing into daylight Tue before the gradient relaxes by Tue
aftn. Guidance usually underdone after FROPAs this time of year.
Weak mid-level s/w to fire a sfc low along the stalled offshore
front Tue night that pushes well offshore Wed. This allows
another N-NE brief surge early Wed. The center of the sfc high
to migrate to and across the waters and offshore within the Wed
night thru daytime Thu time line...look for diminishing winds
and veering to the E possibly SE dependent on the orientation of
the high. Southern stream 5H s/w trof and Northern stream 5h
s/w trof approach from their respective directions late Thu
night which may give rise to low pressure off the Carolinas
Coast, too early to comment its affects given it may be further
offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High tide around 9 pm this evening will produce a threat for
minor coastal flooding across coastal areas of Southeast NC and
Northeast SC, basically within a 4 hour window centered around
the time of high tide. This should be the last coastal flood
threat. However, for the Lower Cape Fear River, Wilmington
south, expect minor coastal flooding for both high tides each
day thru midweek.

Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents and
a persistent strong north to south longshore current effective
for the Pender and New Hanover County beaches thru early this
evening. Will observe a diminishing/subsiding trend to both
currents going into the upcoming work-week as NE winds lower
along with subsiding wind waves and swell action.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
    108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
    056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...31
MARINE...DCH/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH/VAO