132
FXUS62 KILM 190723
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor front will sink southward as high pressure extends
into the Carolinas behind it from the north. Erin is expected to
remain far enough offshore to keep substantial wind and rain impacts
away, but will bring dangerous surf to the beaches for much of the
work week. Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front
stalls south of the area and moisture increases. Another cold front
is expected to approach from the northwest late in the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated the Rip Current Statement to extend it through Wednesday
night as dangerous rip currents will remain a hazard at all
beaches through this period and beyond. As Erin pulls away on
Thursday and Friday, the swell direction will become more
easterly, supporting a continued high rip current risk for east-
facing beaches, while the rip current risk decreases for south-
and southeast-facing beaches. Thus, the Rip Current Statement
will likely need to be extended through Friday at least for
east-facing beaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As high pressure wedges into the Carolinas, a cold front will drift
southward and stall across the area today. Low clouds associated
with the cooler air mass will build across our inland areas early
this morning. The increased cloud cover and cooler air will keep
daytime highs in the low to mid 80s inland. This will limit showers
this afternoon, even as a few peeks of sunshine develop later in the
day.

Confidence is lower near the coast and over portions of northeast SC
which will be just east and south of the frontal boundary,
respectively. In the warmer air mass, mixing should scour the low
clouds by noon and the convergence along the boundary should produce
some scattered afternoon convection. Model soundings do show some
drier air aloft and limited instability, even south of the front
this afternoon. Therefore, coverage could be more limited than
models currently suggest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
This period will encompass the passage of Erin, which will bring
breezy north to northeast winds and very rough surf. Hi-res guidance
suggests a band of southwestward-moving showers a perhaps a
thunderstorm may develop during Wednesday afternoon over land as a
stalled front is acted upon by increasing moisture ahead of Erin and
perhaps some lift attendant to the incoming mid-level shortwave
trough which will help to deflect Erin away from the East Coast.
However, any convection which tries to develop will be battling
subsidence around the periphery of a strong and broadening
hurricane, so coverage should end up more on the isolated to widely
scattered side with mainly short-lived showers developing.
Otherwise, the subsidence should keep inland areas around and west
of I-95 dry and partly cloudy. Highs should reach the upper 80s in
most areas, although coastal areas may end up with dense enough
overcast from Erin to hold in the mid-80s.

The closest pass of Erin is expected to occur over Wednesday night,
bringing steady northeast winds backing to northerly late in the
night, and the chance for some showers to scrape the Cape Fear
coastal areas. Lows should dip into the low-mid 70s. With northerly
to north-northwesterly winds taking over on Thursday, the
aforementioned stalled front should be shoved southward, resulting
in a reduction in moisture with a dry day expected and highs
reaching the upper 80s to around 90F.

On the backside of Erin, high pressure north of the area is expected
to develop a surface ridge on the east side of the Appalachians,
resulting in winds veering back to northeasterly on Thursday night.
However, lower dew points mixed down from above should allow for
slightly cooler lows in the upper 60s to low 70s away from the
immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The stalled front should be far enough south of the area to keep
most or all of the region largely devoid of precip, although mid-
level impulses interacting with the front may result in convection
scraping our far western and southern zones from Friday afternoon
through Saturday afternoon. Guidance then indicates that a powerful
mid-upper closed low and associated trough tracking across central
Canada will slow down and deepen as it enters western Ontario, with
multiple shortwave troughs rotating around it. This is likely to
send a cold front through from the northwest late on Sunday or early
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms possible along and ahead of
it. If this frontal passage is clean, which would make sense given
the strength of the trough, then a dry northwest wind would arrive
on Monday with a refreshing decline in dew points.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady through the period
with highs generally in the middle 80s and lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread IFR stratus is working its way southward across the
Carolinas this morning behind a cold front. Restrictions will be
slow to break across the region this morning as cooler air pools
inland. Near the coast, NE winds will battle the periphery of the
front with some onshore flow bringing MVFR followed VFR by noon or
early afternoon. Expect VFR for all terminals during the afternoon,
earlier near the coast; by late afternoon inland.

Stratus should delay inland shower chances this afternoon. Near the
coast and along the stalled frontal boundary, expect showers and
storms to initiate during the early afternoon. Limited instability
suggests that storms should be brief, but heavy rain could lead to
IFR for a brief period. HREF has drifted slightly with the timing
and location of impacts, but confidence is increasing that coastal
terminals could see a brief restriction this afternoon. Wedging
should support low stratus tonight and tomorrow morning. Boundary
layer winds will likely limit fog potential to a minimal MVFR mist.
Winds increase tomorrow as the gradient tightens between Erin
offshore and high pressure to the north.

Extended Outlook... Gusty winds and intermittent clouds and some
showers will be possible through midweek between high pressure to
the north and Erin to the east. A cold front will approach the area
later this week with cooler temperatures and increased rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Northeasterly flow increases late today and
tonight as high pressure builds to our north and Hurricane Erin
moves northward between the US East Coast and Bermuda. Seas increase
due to long period swells and increased NE wind waves. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to become quite active late tonight into
Wednesday as Erin begins to interact with a stalled cold front off
of our coastline.

Wednesday through Saturday... Hurricane Erin will influence the
winds through Thursday with northeast winds on Wednesday backing to
northerly over Wednesday night as she passes by offshore, then
slightly west of north in her wake on Thursday. SCA-level winds are
becoming more likely from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning,
mainly in the NC waters, as her track continues to nudge westward
and wind field expands. Wave heights are expected to continue rising
through Wednesday until they peak during the night as Erin makes her
closest approach, with heights between 10-16 feet in the coastal
waters, highest near and east of Cape Fear. The primary
southeasterly swells related to Erin are expected feature a period
of around 16 seconds. North-northwesterly wind waves develop behind
Erin on Thursday while the southeasterly swells become easterly and
gradually subside. 6 ft seas should exit the waters by late Thursday
night or Friday morning as Erin accelerates away to the northeast.

In the wake of Erin, high pressure north of the area will influence
the weather, with northeast winds on Friday becoming easterly to
southeasterly over the weekend. Wave heights should subside into the
2-4 ft range by late Friday and continue to gradually subside over
the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Through midweek, minor coastal flooding is expected along the
Lower Cape Fear River during the late afternoon and evening high
tide cycles, basically within a 3 hour window centered on high
tide. May see minor coastal flooding during the daytime high
tide cycle on Wed.

Runup from large waves associated with Hurricane Erin, could
result in minor coastal flooding, beach erosion and minor ocean
overwash across vulnerable coastal locations such as areas
without a protective dune line.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of rip currents is expected from
through Friday as large swells from Hurricane Erin impact the
coast.

HIGH SURF: Dangerous and rough surf with 6+ foot breaking wave
heights is also expected for much of the SE NC and NE SC coast,
especially for east to southeast facing beaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM