928
FXUS62 KILM 221651
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1251 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger off the coast until a cold front
approaches mid week. The front will then likely stall over, or
near, the area through mid week bringing some needed rainfall.
Another cold front should move through over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures will be well above normal today ahead of a slow moving
cold front, especially for inland areas where highs in the upper 80s
are expected. The strong heating will help with destabilization, and
as the front nudges into western portions of the forecast area
expect scattered convection to develop later today. A Marginal Risk
of severe weather is highlighted across the northern tier zones with
localized damaging wind gusts, and possibly some hail, for late this
afternoon into the evening. The front will stall across the area
tonight, and lows will be a few categories above normal as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A front will be stalled in the area through the majority of the
short term period leading to unsettled weather. Wednesday could
see heavy rain as an axis of warm, moist air sets up over the
area with the front. PWATs could reach 1.5", and short term
guidance is even suggesting up to 2". With increasing
instability and PVA aloft, thunderstorm activity will increase
Wednesday afternoon. Heavy showers and storms will be possible.
General rainfall amounts outside of these storms should be
around 0.5", but in areas where heavy rain sets up rainfall
totals could increase to ~1". The axis of largest rainfall
totals is now aligned with the coast and slightly inland as
there could be some enhancement in activity along the sea breeze
depending on its timing. The front will start to dissipate
through Thursday with high pressure ridging down the east coast
moving offshore. Despite decreasing lift, little will change in
terms of moisture as some pushes in from around the departing
high, resulting in another day of showers and thunderstorms.
Activity should decrease into Thursday night as the front
dissolves, the high departs, and shortwave ridging builds in.
Highs near 80 and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging should hold through Friday making rain chances more
isolated/scattered before quickly breaking down into Friday night
ahead of the next frontal system. Shower/storm chances will increase
into Saturday with the frontal passage. Cooler weather will then
quickly build in due to ridging high pressure from the north behind
the front, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through this evening. MVFR possible this
evening with shower chances in the 23Z-06Z time
frame.Convection-allowing models have backed off on the coverage
and intensity, keeping most activity north of the area. It seems
the latter half of the night when better coverage can be
expected, and even moreso later tomorrow morning. Rain seemingly
deserving of predominant rain for all sites by the end of the
period.

Extended Outlook... MVFR or brief IFR VIS restrictions possible
on Wednesday. Confidence is high of this occurring, low in
regards to timing. Chance for rain will linger through the end
of the week until a front crosses over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...A ridge of high pressure off the Carolinas along
with a cold front slowly approaching from the west will maintain S-
SWly across the waters today and tonight. Speeds will be 10-15 kts
this morning, and closer to 15 kts this afternoon. As the front
slowly moves across the coastal plains speeds will diminish to
around 10 kts overnight. Seas will be around 3 ft through most of
today and this evening, then 2-3 ft overnight.

Wednesday through Saturday...A stalled front will lead to some
variable wind directions through mid week, with speeds generally
near 10 kts. The front will dissipate Thursday night into Friday
with SW flow increasing into Saturday ahead of a cold front. Seas
generally 2-3 ft through the period with a SE swell at 8-9 seconds
increasing into the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21/SRP
MARINE...LEW/SRP