603
FXUS62 KILM 231721
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1221 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening high pressure moving offshore will continue to foster
a warmup over the next several days. A cold front Thursday
could bring some showers as well as a brief cooldown Friday,
possibly reversing as soon as Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
*Dry with warmer but still below normal temps
*Patchy dense fog possible through around daybreak today and
again late tonight

Confidence:
*High

Details:
*Weak low pressure offshore will continue to move away with high
pressure building in behind it. After another cold start with below
normal temps in the 20s/30s and patchy/shallow fog, temps will
moderate to near 60 this afternoon, still a tad below normal. An
upper disturbance will bring some higher moisture/clouds tonight but
likely not any rain. Lows should fall to near freezing inland,
especially in NC, with mid to upper 30s most other locales. More
fog is possible late tonight as clouds diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low tracking across the deep south and Gulf will spread some
clouds and light pcp up into South Carolina on Monday. Looks
like this far north soundings show mainly moisture above h5 and
therefore should see mainly higher clouds across the area. Pcp
should remain south of the area. The column moisture works its
way down to near 5k ft as best shortwave energy passes over the
area before moving offshore Mon night. A weak front/trough
extending down from the north may produce a wind shift to the NW
late Tues, but overall will see backing of winds toward the SW
with warming into midweek. High temps in the mid 60s on Mon will
surpass 70 Tues as airmass warms and dries out.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm and dry airmass will be in place for Wed under weak high
pressure. Temps should surpass 70 for the first time in a while
and will warm further into Thurs. By Thurs, warm and moist SW
flow will increase ahead of approaching cold front. Expect
clouds to increase and thicken through the aftn with increasing
chc of shwrs and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly well inland.
Temps will drop back down toward 60 for Fri behind the cold
front under dry high pressure. Overall, a warm and rain-free
week except late Thurs into Thurs night with temps running above
normal midweek to near normal by next weekend. After a cool
down on Fri, temps will warm again into the weekend and should
reach into the mid 60s. Another front should move through over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through this evening with light winds
and weak sfc high pressure over the area. Similar to this
morning, patchy fog is possible Monday morning, mainly over
eastern areas. Included MVFR vsbys for KCRE where there is
moderate confidence for MVFR, with low confidence for IFR. Low
confidence for vsby restrictions at the other terminals, so for
now maintained a VFR forecast in the TAFs there. Another dry
day Monday with light winds and SCT-BKN mid/high clouds.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR and dry conditions
persisting through midweek, except for a low/moderate confidence
of MVFR/IFR fog Tuesday morning, again favored towards the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High confidence in benign marine conditions with
high pressure in control. Winds will be quite variable about 5-10 kt
at most with seas 1-2 ft or less, mostly an east to southeast
swell.

Monday through Thursday...
Quiet marine conditions will persist through Tues with somewhat
variable but light winds and seas 2 ft or less. A system moving
by to the south and an upper disturbance Mon into Mon night may
produce a few showers mainly in the offshore waters. A weak
trough/front may produce a windshift late Tues, but a southerly
flow will develop midweek, increasing on Thurs ahead of an
approaching cold front. This southerly push will produce a rise
in seas up to 3 to 4 ft by Thurs.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...RJB/RGZ