362
FXUS62 KILM 061800
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will bring an end to the warm stretch of
weather beginning Thursday. Cool temperatures to follow for end
of the week, with an offshore low possibly increasing rain
chances next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The stagnant weather pattern of the last several days will
finally begin to evolve ahead of a mid-upper trough shifting
rapidly across the Midwest over the next couple of days. The
weak upper anticyclone over eastern NC will be pushed
southwestward as the ridge flattens ahead of the incoming
trough, resulting in the mid-upper flow changing from south-
southeasterly today to weak and chaotic overnight, then
southwest to westerly on Tuesday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure north of the area will be pushed away, but will help
maintain a generally easterly onshore flow through tonight,
which becomes more southeasterly on Tuesday. In addition, the
coastal trough is expected to remain in place and hi-res
guidance tools suggest another round of scattered nocturnal
showers will affect mainly the eastern areas, including the Cape
Fear region this time around. Although not all places will see
rain, some isolated areas may pick up to a tenth to quarter
inch, while others see just a few hundredths. Lightly wet roads
during this extended dry period can become slick as water mixes
with dust and oil on the road, so keep this in mind for the
morning commute on Tuesday. Otherwise, another warm day with a
mix of clouds and sun can be expected after any showers clear
out.

Temperatures will remain above-normal for this time of year,
with daytime highs in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another warm night Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s, with
a chance of patchy fog developing overnight due to calm winds
before high clouds start to move in from the west towards
morning. One last day of unseasonably warm temps Wednesday with
continued WAA around offshore mid-level ridge and ahead of
incoming trough. Highs Wednesday in the mid 80s. Cold front is
forecasted to move across the area late Wednesday before
stalling offshore. While PWATs Wednesday are high (1.75+ inches,
which is above 90th percentile for this time of year),
instability appears to be quite weak due to poor lapse rates.
Thunder is generally capped at slight chance Wednesday/Wednesday
night while pops are 50-60%. Lower instability will also lower
rainfall totals, with 0.25-0.75" currently forecasted for Wed-
Wed night. Lower temps and dewpoints move in behind the front by
Thursday morning, with lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures in store for the long term period due
to CAA behind the front and a wedge of high pressure develops
at the surface Thursday into Friday. Predominantly dry Thursday,
with a chance of low stratus lingering through midday with low
level inversion. Low pressure looks to develop along the stalled
front off the Southeast coast late Friday as upper shortwave
digs into the area. The low is currently forecasted to move up
the coast Saturday and be near the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday
into Monday. How close this low gets to the coast will determine
our rain chances and our wind gusts Friday and Saturday, with
best chance for showers and gusty winds across coastal counties.
Dry air moves in behind the low Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period,
although low chances for brief MVFR to IFR vis or cig
restrictions exist again tonight if any shower directly impacts
a terminal. Inland areas are not completely safe from a shower,
but chances are too low to mention. MVFR mist is possible at the
inland terminals as winds lighten up, but clouds from the
coastal showers may thwart any attempt at mist formation despite
initially clear skies after daytime cumulus dissipates this
evening. This will need to be re- evaluated in future updates.
Any early-morning restrictions should end soon after sunrise and
leave a VFR day through the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions prevail most of the time. Low
to moderate confidence in patchy dense fog during the early
morning on Wednesday, with rain chances returning starting
Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High pressure north of the waters will shift
eastward through the period, causing winds to gradually veer
with time from ENE to ESE. Speeds will tend to decrease as the
high moves away and the gradient loosens, but a coastal trough
is still expected to hold near the coast, keeping onshore winds
in play and a chance for showers tonight into early Tuesday.
Accordingly, wave heights should very gradually subside from the
3-5 ft range this afternoon into the 3-4 ft range on Tuesday.
The main wave group continues to be an 8-sec SE swell with a
diminishing contribution from an easterly 12-13 sec swell.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Relatively benign marine
conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday with southeast winds
less than 10 kts and seas 3-4 ft from 8 sec SE swell. A cold
front is forecasted to move across the waters Wednesday evening
into overnight hours before stalling off the coast, with chance
of thunderstorms with frontal passage. Winds and seas pick up
behind the front, with NE winds 20- 25 kts and gusts to 30 kts
by Thursday morning. Winds remain elevated into next weekend as
pressure gradient remains tight between inland wedge and a low
pressure system developing along stalled front Friday and
Saturday. Seas 4-5 ft Thursday morning increase to 5-8 ft by
Thursday afternoon, and remain around that height through
Saturday, primarily due to NE swell. Depending on position of
the low as it moves up the coast, scattered thunderstorms
possible across the local coastal waters Friday into Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and rising astronomical tides due to the full moon
today will likely bring minor tidal flooding with each high
tide cycle across most of the beaches and along the lower Cape
Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, at least through the
first half of this week.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area due to 4-5 ft SE swell
continuing to impact our beaches. High rip risk is forecasted to
continue through tomorrow before improving on Wednesday. May see
high rip current risk return Thursday into the weekend for
beaches north of Cape Fear due to strengthening ENE swell and a
developing low pressure system off the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...VAO/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...