295
FXUS62 KILM 050602
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
202 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected
to continue through the weekend as high pressure dominates the
weather pattern across the Carolinas. A cold front should move
offshore Monday night with high pressure bringing cooler weather
from Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Will include low chance POP (isolated -shra) for the
southernmost ILM SC Zones until around dusk. Mid-level ridging
across the SE States to break down tonight followed by weak
troffiness taking its place. Will be dealing with mid and upper
level cloud decks tonight thru Sat along with possible onshore
movement of stratocu, low level cloud deck, under NE-ENE flow
sfc thru 7H. Tonights lows generally mid 60s, to near 70 at the
coast which is nearly 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. The general troffiness aloft during Sat, will try to draw
up some additional moisture, in the form of clouds, from the
Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, a dry cold front progged to drop
south to and across portions of the FA, by late Sat. Low clouds
will mix in with the mid and upper level clouds. Still, forcing
remains weak and will continue with a dry CFP. Sat high temps,
also will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal with widespread 80s
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure will keep the weather dry over the
weekend with northeasterly flow prevailing. Although deep
moisture will be kept to our south, it appears some high-level
moisture in the form of cirrus clouds may stream overhead at
least over the SC zones over Saturday night and Sunday before
being suppressed further south, leaving mainly clear skies for
Sunday night. Otherwise, some shallow fair weather cumulus
should manage to develop on Sunday due to daytime heating, but
these will quickly dissipate in the evening.

Temperatures will hold near- to slightly-above normal with
morning lows mostly in the low 60s and Sunday`s highs in the
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ahead of a cold front poised to push through on Monday night,
an abnormally warm day is anticipated with mainly sunny skies
and compressional warming ahead of the front expected to help
boost highs into the middle 80s despite falling mid-level
heights. While isolated showers cannot be ruled out as the front
enters our northern tier of NC counties (Robeson through
Pender) late in the afternoon, PoPs are kept below mentionable
(15%) at this time. Dry air above 700mb will limit vertical
development and should keep any shower activity on the light and
isolated side if it were to make it into our area. Behind the
front, north to northeasterly flow is expected to persist
through the week as high pressure remains firmly in place to our
northwest.

After a very warm Monday, temperatures are expected to fall
below normal for the remainder of the week as cool and dry air
filter in behind the cold front. Highs are not expected to
breach 80F in most areas from Tuesday onward while lows
initially in the low 60s on Monday night progressively dip
further into the 50s through the week.

Meanwhile, questions remain as to the evolution of the
significant mid-upper trough expected to close off into an upper
low over south- central Canada during the middle of the week.
This will matter as the southern reaches of troughing around
this low will determine whether surface low pressure tracking
along the old front front to our south will bring any impacts to
our weather during the latter half of next week. The latest
ECMWF run and a small number of its ensembles suggest some
grazing effects (e.g., light rain and breezy winds near the
coast) from a system tracking along this front may occur next
week. However, little agreement exists in whether a tropical or
non-tropical system can actually get organized in the Gulf of
Mexico and thus, there is very low confidence in anything of
note at this time. Regardless, an extended period of marine
impacts are expected, initially from Kirk`s swells arriving,
then from unsettled conditions along the stalled front well-
offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the period as cloud cover remains well
above any restriction threshold.


Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail under high pressure, except
sub-VFR possible in early morning fog or stratus Sun and Mon.
Next CFP slated late Mon or Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sfc high generally to ridge across the area
from the north thruout this period. This will yield a NE-ENE
wind direction. The sfc pg will remain semi-tightened thruout
this period with windspeeds 10-15 kt dominating. Seas generally
will run 3 to 4 ft except 2 to 3 ft in the protected area from
Cape Fear south to Little River Inlet given wave/swell direction
from the ENE-E. Seas will be dominated by the Easterly 10+
second period swell, with wind chop on top. Could see occasional
shra move across the waters south of Little River Inlet to
South Santee River. Majority will dissipate as they trek
onshore.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night...Weak surface high
pressure will keep northeasterly flow at 10-15 kts in place
through Sunday night. The flow becomes light and variable on
Monday as high pressure moves offshore ahead of a stronger cold
front approaching from the northwest. This front is expected to
push through on Monday night with north to northeasterly flow
becoming re-establishing as stronger high pressure from central
Canada builds in. As it draws nearer, the pressure gradient
between it and the stalled front offshore will bring increasing
winds by Wednesday with speeds in the 15-20 kt range.

Seas are expected to hold in the 2-4 ft range with a
combination of easterly swells at 10-11 sec and wind waves
initially dominating over Saturday night into Sunday. Swells
from Hurricane Kirk are expected to begin arriving on Sunday and
become dominant by Monday morning with a period around 16 sec.
These swells continue into midweek as Kirk recurves into the
northern Atlantic. Meanwhile, unsettled weather associated with
the stalled front offshore may complicate the seas further with
a stronger northeasterly wind wave component coming into play on
Tuesday night, as well as additional swells if a surface low
can become strong enough offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the Lower
Cape Fear River into this weekend due to the new moon. Some of
the higher high tides may impact both sides of the Cape Fear
River and portions of Brunswick County. Minor coastal flooding
is possible along the immediate coast (primarily north of Little
River Inlet) late this weekend with forecast water levels close
to the advisory threshold values with confidence low.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk possible at east- facing
beaches Sunday and Monday due to long period swells from distant
Hurricane Kirk.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...DCH/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...