803
FXUS62 KILM 280056
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
856 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Beach Hazards Statement issued for East and Southeast facing
beaches for a strong south to north longshore current
developing Tue afternoon and persisting into the evening.

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z Tafs issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat Advisory likely for part of the area Tuesday.

2) Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory likely for part of the area
Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
20+ degree 850mb temperatures return tomorrow ahead of a cold
front. This will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
90s while dewpoints are progged to get into the mid/upper 70s.
Concerned with NW flow and the steep LL hydrolapse rates that
some lower dewpoints could mix down but after collab with CHS
and CAE have gone ahead and raised a Heat Advisory for all but
northern row of counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
After a moistly rain-free Tuesday a cold front and mid level
trough will impinge upon the area from the NNW. Models are
bullish on both POPS and QPF as this occurs, and the available
moisture concerns expressed above could very well mean that both
are running too high. Assuming that some surface dewpoint
recovery is possible around sunset have not deviated from
blended POPs/QPF with this package. Rainfall totals thus
expected to have a N-S gradient with the Cape Fear Region
nabbing 1-1.25".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widely scattered showers this evening, too isolated to even
include at any 1 terminals. Will indicate some convective
debris clouds going into the overnight. Otherwise, as mentioned
b4, MVFR fog remains possible and will decide at press time
whether to include at any 1 terminal. Winds tonight generally
SSW becoming SW-WSW AOB 4 kt, with intervals of calm winds. For
Tue, mainly VFR thru the day with a PROB30 threat for TSRA at
LBT and/or ILM prior to the end of the 24 hr fcst period. This a
result of the convection dropping down from the north. Winds
Tue start at light SW-W that will generally become SW 10-15 kt
inland and SSW 10-15g20+ kt at the coastal terminals during the
afternoon and evening.

Extended Forecast...Periodic MVFR/IFR from convection Tue night
as a cold front and a s/w upper trof move across the region.
Improving conditions Wed with VFR dominating thereafter thru
Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday...After tonight`s uncharacteristically
quiet set of conditions winds and seas will ramp up considerably
as Tuesday progresses. SCA conditions will likely develop over
part of the area. Given the uncertainty and that we`re talking
most Tuesday night have held off on raising headlines at this
time. Conditions will start to improve Wednesday even if only
slowly but from Wednesday night onward the gradient grows very
weak as there is no push of high pressure following FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ099-107>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB