405
FXUS62 KILM 220100
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
900 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into
Tuesday, bringing increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms. A brief respite from the heat will come Tuesday
into midweek, before another hot spell returns by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAMs have backed off on coverage of showers/tstms this afternoon and
evening, but still expecting widely scattered to scattered
development based on cu clustering along the sea breeze and to a
lesser extent, over the Pee Dee. Dry air around 925 mb seems to be a
limiting factor. The frontal boundary was dropping south across
southern VA into northern NC and should still be a focus for at
least some isolated activity this evening. Should see some post-
frontal stratus settle in late tonight into Tuesday morning, and
with the boundary hanging up in the area, CAMs are quite active with
convection developing on Tuesday. The string of heat advisories come
to an end, with highs topping out in the upper 80s Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will extend down from the north into the Carolinas
while weak low pressure develops along lingering front to the
south. This will create a tight moisture gradient running across
our forecast area with over 2 inches running from the Pee Dee
across to Cape Fear, but down near 1 inch over northern tier of
our area, with sfc dewpoint temps less than 70 Tues night into
early Wed. Overall, expect a brief respite from the very hot and
humid weather we have been experiencing. This will be
shortlived as winds come back around to the E-SE bringing trough
or dissipating frontal boundary back onshore by Wed aftn into
Wed night. Convergence associated with this boundary and
along sea breeze front should be the focus for localized convection.
Confidence it low in terms of location and amount of convective
development Wed as models differ as to the exact southern push
of front and then the return of moisture. Also, ridge will be
building over the Carolinas and should help to provide
increasing subsidence and dry air aloft.

Temps will be down toward normal, shaving off 5 to 10 degrees
with overnight lows Tues night down in the lower 70s inland and
low to mid 70s for Wed night. Highs Wed will be near 90 most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hot weather will return for the weekend as ridge builds aloft.
Mid to upper ridge settles over the Carolinas with heights
rising once again to around 596 or 597 dam Thurs through Fri.
Winds will be light as they come back around to the south. A
deeper southerly flow will establish itself over the eastern
Carolinas Thurs into the weekend with center of high off the
Southeast coast. The lingering weakening front moving back north
on Thurs may help to initiate some convection, but overall,
expect lacking upper level support and should become very
localized Fri into the weekend with very hot weather again and
increasing heat risk and possible advisories by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shower and storm activity over the area is currently isolated at
best, with a vague line of showers to our north falling apart as
we lose daytime heating. The front will drop into the area
stalling towards 12Z, bringing in MVFR to IFR stratus and maybe
some showers/storms, particularly for inland and NC terminals.
Activity should really pick up in the afternoon, particularly at
the coast, as the sea breeze interacts with the front.
Showers/storms may be heavy at times. Activity may continue
through the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...The stalled frontal boundary should lift north of
the terminals Wednesday afternoon or evening, followed by a shift to
southerly winds. Widely scattered showers/tstms can`t safely be
ruled out any day given the boundary in the area, and the unstable
airmass that will be in place after it lifts north.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Light SW flow continues across the waters between
a weak trough inland and high pressure off the SE coast. A frontal
boundary will drop south into the northern waters this evening, then
slow/stall overnight into Tuesday. Wind direction will become light
and variable with the relaxed gradient along the front. Widely
scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms focused along the
sea breeze this afternoon will tend to drift slowly ESE and migrate
over the nearshore waters. This activity should wane after sunset,
but will have to keep an eye on the frontal boundary for potential
development later this evening. Winds Tuesday will be dictated by
the location of the front, with NE to E winds developing behind it,
with variability in the direction on the southern side. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday in the
vicinity of the boundary.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...High pressure will build in
from the north behind lingering front to the south Tues night
into Wed. Northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts gradually veer
easterly throughout the day Wednesday and then to the SE as
weakening front moves back inland and north late Wed into Thurs.
By Thurs into Fri, southerly winds will reestablish themselves
across the area as high pressure becomes centered off the
Southeast coast. Seas 1-2 ft on Tuesday become 2-3 ft Wednesday
through Friday. Only exception includes a few 4 ft waves 20 nm
offshore Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/CRM