587
FXUS62 KILM 080043
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
843 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
next week as a series of disturbances pass across the region,
with a strong cold front reaching the coast before stalling
during the middle of next week. Some storms may be severe,
especially late today and again Sunday afternoon. The biggest
threats are damaging winds with hail possible especially Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track with storms that developed and strengthened as
they moved into Pender county and collided with sea breeze. A
severe thunderstorm was responsible for tree reported down due
to strong winds. All storms moved to east and were remaining
north of the area by 8p.

A large area of thunderstorms, an MCS, to the west may approach
I-95 corridor by late evening. These storms are enhanced by a
decent shortwave tracking to the east and models show some of
these storms reaching the SC coast after midnight. Other showers
and storms scattered near or just north of our forecast area
may strengthen as shortwave approaches. Overall, expect
possibility of storms overnight across portions of the area.
Moisture rich air continues to stream into the area in gusty SW
winds with sfc dewpoint temps up near or above 70 and temps in
the mid 80s this evening slowly dropping into the mid 70s by
morning.

Aviation discussion updated below for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal background mid-upper flow and weak shortwave ridging amidst
mostly sunny skies and southwesterly low-level flow have permitted
an unseasonably hot and humid day across the region. However,
subsidence and dry air due to the ridging have kept convection
largely at bay, except for brief showers and an isolated
thunderstorm along the sea breeze. With that said, as another subtle
shortwave trough is presently crossing North Carolina, somewhat more
agitated cumulus is evident across northwestern portions of the
forecast area, with widely scattered showers noted on radar. As
this draws nearer to the coast, it is possible that the overlap
of slightly better forcing and convergence along the sea breeze
may be enough to get thunderstorms developing, which would have
the potential to become severe (with damaging winds) late this
afternoon and evening. However, this carries low to moderate
confidence, with it also quite possible that mainly short-lived
showers continue to pop up and wane as they have been so far
this afternoon due to the forcing being so weak this far south.

Tonight carries lower than normal confidence as its outcome will
depend on the evolution of whatever develops this evening and
the outcome of an upstream severe convective system crossing
Alabama at this hour. Although nocturnal cooling will result in
waning instability, dew points in the 70s and steady southwest
winds will keep a supply of moderate instability in play through
the night with MUCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range while
effective shear holds around 30-40 kts. Thus, if enough lift can
get a storm going, the potential for severe wind gusts is there.
The complication arises from whether an evening storm can
produce an outflow boundary which could force additional storms
to develop overnight. Otherwise, if the passing shortwave is
unable to produce any storms this evening, then subsidence in
its wake should keep the region mainly dry overnight until
outflow from the aforementioned convective system over Alabama
makes it into the area later in the night, which may bring
strong storms with it.

On Sunday, the outcome of any morning convection will determine
whether new activity blossoms in the afternoon, or if morning
clouds and rain will stifle development and make for a mainly
dry afternoon. With that said, guidance indicates a robust
shortwave arriving late in the day which should manage to force
new storms, so long as enough instability develops behind
whatever might occur in the morning. If no activity occurs in
the morning, then more instability would be available for storms
later in the day, which would be capable of producing severe
wind gusts and possibly small hail.

Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s will be limited by warm dew
points, steady southwest winds, and debris cloudiness from
upstream convection overspreading the area. Daytime highs on
Sunday will depend on the extent of morning clouds and
showers/storms and how quickly they exit/dissipate. Thus,
although highs in the low 90s are forecast away from the coast,
these may be too high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast area will be impacted by a two mid-level shortwaves as
a 500 mb low rotates across the Great Lakes Sunday night through
Tuesday. Thunderstorms that develop to our west Sunday will push
east and likely impact the area into the evening hours. SPC
continues to paint the area under a slight risk (2 of 5) through
Sunday night, as instability and shear will be supportive of strong
to severe storms. We should see a lull in convection late Sunday
night into Monday afternoon, then potential ramps back up ahead of
the next shortwave trough slated for Monday evening. Temps will run
a little above climo through the period due to persistent Bermuda
high offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Embedded, subtle shortwaves in the SW flow aloft will aid in
scattered to numerous showers/tstms on Tuesday, likely peaking
during the late afternoon and early evening. The third shortwave of
the week, as resolved by the models, looks to move overhead
Wednesday afternoon. Potential for shower/tstm activity should
increase ahead of this feature, as a moderately unstable airmass
will remain in place. Should finally see convective activity
decrease late in the week as low-amplitude mid-level ridging sets up
over the SE CONUS. High temps around 90 Tue-Wed will warm a couple
of degrees Thu-Sat due to the ridging aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large area of thunderstorms to the west may approach inland
terminals, especially FLO to CRE and MYR late this evening,
after 02z. These storms are enhanced by a decent shortwave
tracking to the east. Other showers and storms scattered near or
just north of our forecast area may strengthen as shortwave
approaches. Overall, expect brief sub-VFR conditions possible
in any storms overnight, but confidence was too low to include
in TAFs at 00z issuance. Sunday should be an active afternoon of
thunderstorms with storms developing as early as 17-18z. Gusty
SW winds will diminish a bit overnight and may veer to the W-SW
before backing again to the SW by Sun aftn.


Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions are possible in storms
lasting into Sunday evening and other intermittent thunderstorms
through Thursday, along with a chance of overnight/morning fog
and stratus Sunday night. Strong to severe storms are possible
on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...
Steady southwesterly winds will continue through the period with
speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Wave heights
generally in the 2-4 ft range may see some 5 ft waves at times
during the late afternoon and evening, mainly in 10-20 nmi
offshore portions of the coastal water zones. South-
southwesterly wind waves with a period of around 5 seconds will
be the primary contributor to the wave heights, with a weak 1 ft
ESErly swell with a period of 9 sec continuing. Pop-up showers
will remain possible along the sea breeze through this evening
and again tomorrow, with one or more waves of thunderstorms
possible. One wave may affect the waters east of Cape Fear this
evening if storms can organize on land, another wave may arrive
after sunrise tomorrow morning across most or all of the waters,
and one more may develop late in the afternoon or evening
tomorrow. The potential late afternoon and evening rounds of
storms could be strong to severe with wind gusts of 50 kts or
greater.

Sunday night through Thursday...Bermuda high pressure will be a
persistent feature through the period, resulting in predominantly
SSW flow varying between 10-20 kts. Showers and thunderstorms will
be scattered to numerous, particularly during periods Sunday night
through late Wednesday, as a series of shortwave disturbances move
overhead in SW flow aloft. Seas will average 3-4 ft Sunday night
through Tuesday, then subsiding to 2-3 ft by Thursday. Winds and
seas will be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms, which
will be numerous at times.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ABW/CRM