881
FXUS62 KILM 040709
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
209 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will hold through today before a weak
backdoor cold front drops through late Thursday. Rain chances
will increase substantially Friday as a storm system takes shape
to our south along the lingering front. Additional disturbances
will likely maintain rain chances through the weekend into
early next week. Mostly dry conditions may return by mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clearing skies have lead to fog development across the area. Thus
far not seeing much in the way of significant visibility
restrictions and it could turn out visibility bounces around a lot
tonight and dense fog remains limited. While the lower portion of
the boundary layer is very moist given recent rains, the upper half
of the boundary layer may be dry enough to thwart the development of
dense fog. Will continue to monitor in the event an advisory is
needed. Also worth noting that with temperatures right around or
even below freezing tonight, dense fog could result in freezing fog.

Complex pattern setting up with a weak cold front dropping in from
the north while a southern stream system coalesces along the western
Gulf Coast. The front arrives in the area this evening, stalling as
it ends up parallel to the flow aloft. The mid-level pattern remains
static through tonight, keeping the front in the area while the low
along the Gulf Coast slowly marches east. Given the volume of dry
air presently over the region think it will take a while before any
rainfall arrives. Today will be dry across the region although with
clouds gradually increasing through the day.

Light drizzle/rain will slowly spread over the area from southwest
to northeast starting this evening and by daybreak Fri rain should
cover the entire forecast area. Isentropic lift is pretty weak this
evening and the first batch of rain may struggle to measure,
especially given the amount of low level dry air. Through about 06Z
or so rainfall looks spotty and light. After 06Z and closer to
daybreak lift ramps up, especially across northeast SC. Rainfall
bordering on moderate intensity is possible across SC just as the
near term comes to an end. Temperatures end up a few degrees below
normal today, but cloud cover will help keep tonight`s lows near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Temps Friday will take a bit of a hit behind a backdoor cold front
that will stall offshore as waves of low pressure move along them
bringing Gulf moisture. High pressure moving offshore to our NE
through Friday will also put us in return flow, however a wedge will
exist at the surface preventing much warming. This will make for a
cold, rainy Friday and Friday night. The majority of the area should
see another inch or so of rain, with lesser totals possible west of
I95. The wedge will erode into Saturday with slightly warmer
conditions but still near 50. Rain will continue but with a slight
decrease in coverage inland as the front (and low pressure along it)
moves further away through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A chance of rain could linger through Sunday as the front moves out
to sea but we still have some return flow. The cold front to end
rain chances look to move through by Monday with high pressure
building in for Tuesday, dry conditions returning. We have that
setup where cold air will be chasing the moisture Sunday night into
Monday morning so we`ll need to keep an eye on how the temperatures
shake out to see if wintry precip is possible, but for now they look
to miss each other, dry air where the colder temperatures are. High
pressure will hold with cold, dry weather through the rest of
the period though another front may be approaching.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low clouds linger along the coast, although showing signs of
breaking up. Inland skies are mostly clear with only patches of high
cloud passing at times. Calm winds coupled with recent heavy rains
should allow for fog development, possibly even freezing fog given
forecast and observed temperatures at inland terminals. Some
uncertainty given the dryness of the air at the top of the boundary
layer. Instead of prolonged dense fog, it could be fog develops then
dissipates with the cycle repeating. Confidence in development of IFR
visibility is low.

Widespread VFR returns shortly after sunrise and continues through
06Z. Winds will be light to calm with skies clouding up during the
day as cirrus spreads north. Cloud bases will gradually lower during
the day. Potential for some brief MVFR conditions late tonight at
FLO as next system starts to spread drizzle/light rain north, but
currently it appears deteriorating flight conditions are more likely
to arrive after 06Z and not before.

Extended Outlook...Widespread and prolonged MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibility likely through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Light offshore flow for much of today into
tonight as a weak cold front drops into the area. Surface high
to the northwest shifts east this evening and northeast flow
sets up by midnight. Gradient tightens up a bit, leading to a
slight increase in northeast flow, especially across NC waters.
Nothing approaching headline criteria, but speeds will be on the
high end of the 10-15 kt range. Seas 2 ft into tonight before
some 3 ft seas start to creep in from the north and east. A
southeast swell will be dominant today and tonight with a
southerly wind wave becoming northerly later tonight.

Friday through Tuesday...We`ll start with a NE surge behind a
backdoor cold front, NE flow increasing to ~15 kts in the morning.
Flow will become more offshore and ~10 kts through the day where
they`ll stay through Saturday. Sunday marine conditions will start
to deteriorate due to a wave of low pressure and approaching cold
front, NE winds will increase to 15-20 kts with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible through the rest of the period due to wind gusts
and seas. Seas 2-3 ft with the aforementioned worsening conditions
starting Sunday/Sunday night, seas increasing to 4-6 ft through
Monday. Conditions may start to improve through Tuesday due to
building high pressure.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW