551
FXUS62 KILM 181112
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
712 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected to prevail through midweek next week as
high pressure remains in control. A warming trend commences
this weekend with temperatures warming above normal early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging aloft shifts slightly further eastward this period,
helping to nudge the offshore cutoff low and the captured sfc
low further offshore to the SE. The 1035+ mb sfc high
underneath the ridging will become centered over the inland
Mid-Atlantic States. The upper ridging, or could even call it a
closed upper high, will encompass the area between the East
Coast and the Mississippi River. The airmass to remain quite dry
thru the atm column across the FA. with suppression, ie.
subsidence, underneath this upper high. End result, nearly a
cloudless sky across the FA this period, unless looking off to
the east over the Atlantic where one may observe stratocu well
off the Carolina coasts. Max temps rebound today and will climb
thru the 60s, topping around 70 degrees this afternoon. Tonights
lows will not be as cold as this morning, with low to mid 40s
covering it. Sfc based inversion quickly to develop by or after
sunset, especially inland where winds will have a better shot of
decoupling. Temps will drop quickly in the evening, then slowly
drop or hold steady there-after.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridging centered over the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday
begins to break down and shift back westward on Saturday night.
Surface high pressure firmly in place to the north will maintain
north-northeasterly winds with some rise in dew points expected,
especially near the coast. These veering winds may bring some
marine stratocumulus near Cape Fear and Winyah Bay, but
overall, skies should remain sunny across the region on Saturday
with highs in the low-mid 70s. As dew points rise, expect
somewhat milder lows with mid-upper 40s inland and around 50F
near the coast. Normally colder spots should dip into the low
40s amidst clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level ridging flattens out through the first half of the
week as a closed low over the Four Corners opens up into a
potent shortwave and ejects back into the westerlies. This will
be spurred by a more substantial trough progged to sharpen as it
dives out of western Canada into the Midwest. This should send
a cold front through by early Thursday as the shortwave shifts
eastward, although limited moisture return should mean no more
than enhanced cloudiness as this comes through.

Dry air and subsidence through the vast majority of the
troposphere will keep sunny to mostly sunny skies in play
through the long term period with a gradual warming trend. The
very dry air mass initially held in place by surface high
pressure to the north will modify as Atlantic moisture noses in
from the east while the high gradually weakens and shifts into
the Atlantic. Expect high temps near normal (mid-70s) on Sunday
to rise above normal (around 80F) ahead of the incoming cold
front. Low temps initially below normal (upper 40s) warm to near
normal (mid 50s) as dew points creep up during the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with no ceilings to contend with during this 24 hr TAF
issuance period. High pressure centered NNW of the region will
dominate this period. NNW-N winds aob 4 kt attm will become NNE-
NE around 10 kt by 14Z and persist thru the day until sunset.
By and after sunset, NNE-NE winds will diminish to aob 5 kt.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Flight restrictions possible
from low stratus clouds late Saturday night into Sunday
morning, with ground fog possible Sunday night into Monday
morning

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Meandering deep offshore low and modest high
pressure centered across the inland Mid-Atlantic States will
result in a tightened sfc pg across the waters thru this period.
Looking at NNE-NE winds around 15 kt with g20 kt at times or
just sustained at 15 to 20 kt thruout this period. Seas
generally 1 to 4 ft ILM SC Waters and 2 to 5 ft for the ILM NC
Waters, with the 5 footers primarily across the outer waters off
Cape Fear. Seas will primarily driven by a 5 to 7 second period
NE to ENE wave.

Saturday through Tuesday... North-northeast winds prevail with
speeds around 15 kts continuing through Sunday night as high
pressure to the north and a tightening gradient persist over
the waters. Expect this gradient to finally relax going into
early next week as the high weakens and shifts into the
Atlantic, permitting a more direct northeasterly wind by
Tuesday. Swells from a storm system well to the northeast will
bring elevated seas over the weekend, with a SCA in effect for
the NC waters as 6-foot seas affect those zones mainly on
Saturday and Saturday night before gradually subsiding into the
2-4 ft range early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding likely to occur along the immediate coast
of Southeast NC and Northeast SC and along the banks of the
lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward today thru the
upcoming weekend. Primary occurrence will be the morning thru
early afternoon high tides today through this weekend. The high
astronomical tides from the recent full moon and persistent
north to northeasterly winds will aid the minor coastal flooding.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM