401
FXUS62 KILM 251018
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
618 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridging will build across the area and create an extended heat
wave and limited thunderstorm activity today, thru the weekend
and likely well into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid to upper level high pressure centered nearly over the SC-NC
area, ie. overhead, will place a lid on convection development
this period. Warm temps aloft, with 5H temps progged at -3 to
-4 C. PWS progged actually drop-some, from 2.00-2.25 inches to
1.80-2.00 Subsidence aloft from the high aloft will also limit,
if any, convection. Various model MOS guidance illustrates NIL
convection for today. However, did indicate isolated POPs this
aftn in the vicinity of the sea breeze and whats left of the
inland boundary from Thu. Max temps should reach mid 90s except
upper 80s at the coast. Combined with sfc dewpoints back and
well into the 70s, expect aftn/early evening Heat Indices to
reach between 105 and 109 degrees. Heat Advisory all ready in
place across the ILM CWA. Tonights min temps will run 70s to
around 80 at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dangerous heat continues on Saturday and Sunday with widespread
high temperatures in the upper 90s. All inland areas have a
good chance of seeing 100 degree highs each afternoon. The upper
ridge should be built sufficiently to prevent mentionable PoPs
on Saturday, and to a lesser extent on Sunday. An isolated storm
is possible due to a slight westward shift in the ridge. Heat
headlines will continue through the weekend with Excessive Heat
Warnings possible both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heat headlines are likely to continue early next week with the
ridge drifting westward. A remnant surface trough dips southward
on the northeastern edge of the ridge on Monday. Generally,
convection will be isolated to widely scattered, but the
presence of this trough gives some confidence that coastal areas
should be the primary benefactor of any afternoon storms that
develop. Slightly less coverage on a hot and humid Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the ridge weakens and splits into two distinct
centers over the southern Plains and southwestern Atlantic. This
weakness in the ridge over the southeastern US will see rain
chances increase for Wednesday afternoon. Widely scattered
storms will have ample instability available as highs remain in
the upper 90s. Models continue to show the potential for a
strong cold front on Thursday. This would have the potential to
be an explosive curtain call for our extended heat wave. Still
too early to seriously analyze the severe weather potential, but
we will certainly be watching this develop over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR to dominate this period. High pressure aloft will limit
convection to isolated in coverage at best, mainly along the
sea breeze and whats left of the dissipating front across NC
that will give way to a sfc trof across the Central Carolinas.
This convective coverage remains too isolated to include a
mention in the TAFs for any terminal. Otherwise, west 4 to 7
kt this morning will back to the SW 5 to 10 kt this aftn,
except the coastal terminals will se an active sea breeze
with winds becoming SSW-S 10-15 kt this aftn into this
evening. Boundary layer SW winds stay active enough to keep
the low levels mixed, thus fog not a concern tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to dominate the
extended period. Isolated convection at best remains possible
along the daily sea breeze and the Piedmont sfc trof.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sfc high pressure centered offshore from the
US Southeast States Coast will ridge back across the area with
W becoming SW winds 10-15 kt today, and around 15 kt tonight as
the sfc trof strengthens across the Central Carolinas. Nearshore
waters, within 10nm of the coast, could see S-SSW winds 15 g20
kt complements of the sea breeze. Sig seas will run 1 to 3 ft.
Seas generally dominated by an E-SE swell at 7+ second periods
except nearshore sea breeze wind chop dominating this aftn and
evening.

Saturday trough Tuesday... Persistent S/SW flow expected this
weekend and into early next week. Afternoon sea breezes will
produce a more active southern component during the afternoon.
Seas consistently around 2-3 feet, choppy during peak heating. A
surface trough dropping southward across the area late Sunday
through early Tuesday could produce locally light and variable
winds. Showers and storms should focus along this trough for
Sunday and Monday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21