500
FXUS62 KILM 060238
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1038 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift north of the area tonight. After a one
day break in thunderstorm activity Friday, the weather will turn
quite unsettled for the next several days as a series of upper
level disturbances cross the area during hot and humid
conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
All flood products issued will end soon as storms weaken and
end. Otherwise, forecast on track with low pressure moving
slowly NE up through NC tonight. Some stronger storms this
evening but mainly issues with flooding. Lingering showers will
continue to diminish through midnight with winds shifting around
to the west-northwest after midnight. Patchy fog or low clouds
can be expected. Winds look lightest across northern tier
counties and therefore expect possibly fog over stratus there.
Better instability exists over SC this evening ahead and along
trailing cold front but expect drier air to move in aloft slowly
after midnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure is currently centered near Marlboro county, and
will slowly move northeast across eastern NC tonight into tomorrow.
Scattered storms will continue to develop and move east-northeast
across the area through early this evening, as instability has
increased from the south aided by sunshine. Marginal risk of
flooding remains for this afternoon if any storm training occurs in
this very moist environment. Precipitation will come to an end from
west to east after sunset as dry air wraps around the low.

Overnight, after the rain has exited the area, could see low stratus
and fog develop through morning, especially across SE NC. Don`t
expect the fog to become dense as BL winds remain a bit elevated,
but can`t rule out patches of thicker fog Friday morning. Low temps
tonight around 67-70F. Weather will be quiet on Friday with partly
cloudy skies and highs near 90F. There is a chance an isolated storm
or two could develop along the sea breeze Friday afternoon, but
overall dry air aloft as low level subsidence develops around the
exiting low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture return will be underway at the start of the period. Some
warmer air also starts to advect in from the SW. This warming paired
with a fair amount of June sunshine for most of the day will allow
for a hot afternoon with highs in the low 90s away from the beaches.
And with dewpoints warming into the 70s we`ll be looking at heat
indices topping out around 100 degrees. Lastly the steep low level
lapse rates that develop in the afternoon will yield some healthy
instability and our severe potential may hinge on how strong the
subsidence drying above 700mb grows. Models like the WRF have
massive drying and little to no convective signal despite having the
strongest instability forecast. Prefer to maintain mid range chc
POPs as such a dry solution seems suspect and is not present in
other guidance.  The best mid level forcing now appears to pass north
of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday now looking like one of the busier days of the forecast.
Saturday`s moisture problem appears gone for a better coverage of
thunderstorms and shear/instability parameters still point to the
possibility of severe weather mainly in the form of wet downbursts.
We also may see a few more mid level disturbances, some of which may
be convective in origin. The remainder of the forecast period
remains quite unsettled, perhaps even to the extent of Sunday.
Increasingly deep trough north the Great Lakes will enhance SWrly
flow locally and a few sheared shortwaves will traverse the area all
in the presence of deep moisture. The severe trend may trend downward
even if only slightly as there may be a small downtick in high
temperatures and more widespread cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure just west of the inland terminals will continue to
track slowly off to the northeast through tonight. Best instability
exists over SC along and ahead of the trailing cold front will
continue to produce some heavier SHWRS and iso TSTMs up until
02-04Z, mainly from FLO to CRE. Elsewhere intermittent light
rain will affect the terminals. Low clouds and fog should
develop and produce MVFR to IFR vsbys and ceilings, but may
fluctuate at times through 13z. Moisture pofiles and soundings
show drier air moving in aloft behind trailing cold front, but
shallow moisture holding on through daybreak. Expect VFR
conditions across the area by 14-15Z with low clouds and fog
lifting and some lingering strato-cu through afternoon around 5k
ft. Winds will veer to NW and then back to W-SW by Fri evening,
the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions possible during afternoon
into early evening thunderstorms Saturday through Monday, along
with chance of overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday night
and Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Weak low pressure inland will slowly move northeast
across eastern NC tonight into tomorrow. Scattered storms may impact
local coastal waters through this evening as they move offshore.
Southwest winds 15-20 kts tonight will briefly turn westerly around
15 kts early Friday as the low moves to the north before sea breeze
influence aids in backing the winds back to southwesterly Friday
afternoon. Seas 4-5 ft tonight will lower to 3 ft by late Friday
afternoon as the southerly swell slowly weakens.

Friday night through Tuesday... Southwesterly flow, our most common
warm season wind, will be in place for the entire period. The coast
will be between stalled surface troughs and late in the period a
cold front to the west, and a slightly expanding area of high
pressure in the Atlantic. Spectral wave plots keep dominant periods
in the wind wave category as most of the swell energy appears to
remain offshore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ILM