519
FXUS62 KILM 031904
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
304 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area until 8 PM
EDT this evening. Another Heat Advisory will go into effect for
all of northeast SC and southeast NC from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT
Friday.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring
  triple digit heat indices through Saturday. Heat Advisory in
  effect Friday.

- 2) A cold front will result in increased chances for showers
  and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler
  temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures and humidity
will bring triple digit heat indices through Saturday. Heat
Advisory in effect Friday.

Mid-level ridge continues to cook over the Carolinas, with the
highest 500 mb heights basically sitting perfectly over the
forecast area (594-595 dam). This continues to soar well above
the 95th and even 99th percentiles for early September.
Meanwhile, 850 mb temperatures look to still hang around 19-20C,
even up to 21-22C at times, which maintains a regime of mid-to-
upper 90s inland, lower 90s at the coast. Throw in the humidity,
and triple digits don`t have a problem climbing into the triple
digits. Heat Advisory in effect for most of the area today
expires at 8 PM EDT. Another advisory, this time for all of
northeast SC and southeast NC, will go into effect from 11 AM to
8 PM EDT Friday. No advisory in play at the moment for Saturday,
so I expect more of the same by the time we get there.

Daily record highs through Saturday...
Location...........Fri 9/4......Sat 9/5
Wilmington.......100 in 1925...95 in 2023
N Myrtle Beach....99 in 1944...98 in 1944
Florence..........99 in 1954..100 in 1954
Lumberton........104 in 1925..100 in 1954

Climate Note: If our forecast verifies, Sep 1-5 will all have
high temps in Wilmington of 92 degrees or higher. By itself this
will move 2026 into 6th place for the most number of 92+ degree
September days in Wilmington. So far today (Thursday, September
3), we`ve attained a high of 91F, and it`s 90F at the time of
this typing. We still have a few hours left of possibly hitting
92F this afternoon, so this will bear watching.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will result in increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler
temperatures early next week.

An upper low currently spinning over Quebec will gradually move
to the southeast towards New Brunswick/Nova Scotia/Prince Edward
Island over the weekend, ejecting into the Atlantic by early
next week. Its associated trough will deepen and drop through
the mid-Atlantic states, allowing this summer ridge to
retrograde and exit stage left towards the Plains. Between these
features and the upper low over the PNW, this creates an Omega
blocking pattern. Haven`t seen one of those in awhile.

The oppressive summer heat gets one more punch in Saturday,
before the heights aloft finally start to come down late in the
day. A surface cold front pushes in from north to south, allowed
for showers and storms to kick up sometime late Saturday
afternoon through the evening. Bulk shear continues to tease 25
kts, aided by increased northwesterly flow aloft. SPC now has
the area in a "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/5) for severe
weather, with the main threat being damaging winds.

Still have healthy rain chances in place Sunday. Think the front
should ultimately clear the area and head well south, but some
guidance still has it lingering through parts of SC, while
others have strengthening low pressure form along the front and
spread moisture back into the area.

Drier weather in store Monday and Tuesday, with high
temperatures in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. SE breeze at 8-10 kts has
picked up at the coastal terminals due to the seabreeze, but
winds go calm again late tonight. Seeing more of an increased
signal for fog before sunrise Friday morning. May have more
minor MVFR visibilities near KILM, but there are more
significant concerns near KFLO, which may drop down into IFR by
09-10Z. Fog should mix out by 13Z or so. Gradient winds pick up
slightly out of the SW later Friday morning, before the seabreeze
starts building back in towards the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms should become
numerous across the area late Saturday afternoon through Sunday
as a cold front arrives from the north. The highest potential
for IFR conditions in convection is expected Saturday evening.
Prevailing VFR conditions should return by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Light S to SE winds continue tonight. On
Friday, the high will begin to retreat offshore as pressures
lower to our north in advance of an approaching cold front. This
tightened pressure gradient should lead to increasing south to
southwest winds Friday afternoon, likely exceeding 15 knots
north of Cape Fear.

Moderate west to southwest winds are expected Saturday up until
the cold front arrives during the evening. This front should be
accompanied by gusty thunderstorms that may sweep rapidly
offshore Saturday night. There are still questions as to how
far south the front moves on Sunday, but it appears to remain
near enough to the area for good chances for showers or
thunderstorms to continue, especially south of Cape Fear. Drier
weather should arrive on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-058-059.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB