006
FXUS62 KILM 031058
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
658 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth will persist through Sunday. The next
meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday
accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow
on Tuesday into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure ridging into the area from the east will exert
greater control of area weather through the forecast period.
Overall, this will mean warmer temperatures and an end to the
showers going on over SE NC attm. Skies should remain at least
partly cloudy through the near term period though. Max
temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s with cooler
numbers nearer the ocean. Mins tonight will fall to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging off of the southeastern Atlantic coast will
advect warm, moist air across the region through the weekend.
Inland areas have a shot at seeing their first 90 degree high of
the year both Friday and Saturday. This would be nearly a month
before the average first 90 degree day of May 2nd for FLO/LBT.
Areas near the coast will be protected by a strong afternoon sea
breeze and should escape with highs in the upper 70s or lower
80s. Morning stratus or fog should mix-out with mostly sunny
skies expected each afternoon. Coastal sea fog, if any develops,
would be a bit more stubborn and could impact temperatures along
the immediate coastline. Humid with overnight lows in the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm air advection increases on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Inland areas will have their best chance of surpassing the 90
degree mark despite some increasing high clouds later in the
day. High clouds could have an impact on temperatures depending
on the timing of their arrival, but inland areas will be warm
and humid regardless. A bolstered sea breeze will keep coastal
areas in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The cold front will reach the area late Sunday. The timing of
the front and onset of showers remains a challenge. While a
chance of showers remains in the forecast for Sunday afternoon,
the ejecting shortwave pushing the surface front eastward will
lift north of the region on Sunday afternoon. This is likely to
limit the eastward progression of the front for a brief period
and keep the bulk of shower activity west of I-95 prior to
sunset. Height falls producing elevated instability and a
propagating cold pool indicate that rain chances will increase
substantially on Sunday evening. Rain chances gradually push
eastward overnight as the slow-moving front reaches the coast
late Sunday night and Monday morning.

A trailing shortwave will merge with the surface front and deep
moisture on Monday. Scattered showers will become more
widespread and elevated instability during the afternoon could
lead to a few isolated thunderstorms. A deeply saturated column
will see areas of heavy rain develop during the afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected.

Drier air follows for the middle of next week with temperatures
shifting from well above-normal to slightly below normal for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
With high pressure ridging in from the east, expect s to sw
winds through the valid taf period. This should improve sky
conditions to VFR by mid-morning. With abundant low level
moisture in place tonight, we could see a repeat of low cloud
development tonight but confidence in that is fairly low attm.
Isentropic lift that produced those clouds the last two nights
is not forecast to be present tonight.

Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early
morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning from
Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A
cold front approaching from the west will likely bring
additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... S winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected through
the period with seas of 3 to 4 FT.

Friday through Monday... High pressure will maintain southerly
flow through the weekend. An afternoon sea breeze will produce
increasingly gusty winds near the coast, up to 15 knots. Winds
increase late this weekend ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to
25 knots will be possible beginning late Sunday. Seas build up
to 4-6 feet late Sunday into Monday during the frontal passage.
Conditions will begin to improve late Monday afternoon behind
the exiting front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...31
MARINE...21/31