799
FXUS62 KILM 040546
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
146 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather into Wednesday. Weak low
pressure will increase rain chances late Wednesday through
Thursday night, especially near the coast. Warmer and more humid
weather will accompany scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track as we near 2 AM EDT.
Updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A very dry airmass still resides across the area via among
other things a visible satellite loop that is void of convective
clouds outside of the sea breeze. Stepping out broader
satellite imagery shows a different story with very pronounced
moisture extending up from the subtropics to just south of the
area. This moisture/system will eventually gather itself with
perhaps some subtropical characteristics and make its move to
the north later tonight into Wednesday and beyond. Most guidance
although not all suites have increased the timing of the onset
of showers early Wednesday on a south to north spatial scale.
DESI/six hour probs of measurable rainfall between 18 and 00 UTC
Wednesday are north of 60 percent or so thus the official
forecast shows an appropriate increase. Lows tonight will be in
a somewhat uncertain middle 60s complicated by the increasing
moisture. Highs for Wednesday could be difficult as well for the
same reason but for now a gradient of middle 80s to the north
with near 80 south is the plan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A low-level trough near SC/GA border early Wednesday night will
develop into a low pressure system that moves across the
eastern Carolinas Thursday into Thursday night. This feature
continues to be highlighted by NHC for a 10% chance of tropical
development, but since the low is progged to form over land
before eventually moving offshore, it is expected to be more
baroclinic in nature vs tropical.

Accompanying this low pressure system is PWATs of 2+ inches,
which is near climatological max for this time of year (per CHS
and MHX sounding climos). Presence of a deep warm cloud layer
with the passage of the low will create periods of heavy rain
Wednesday night into Thursday, particularly across coastal
counties. Current QPF has a gradient from 0.5" along I-95 to 2"
near the coast between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday
night. 90th percentile precipitation guidance is near 4" along
the coast, highest around Georgetown and southern Horry
counties.

The low is forecasted to be somewhere near eastern NC Thursday
night as it slowly moves northeastward, with mid-level dry air
beginning to wrap around on the west/southwest side of the low.
Pops decrease for Thursday night, along with slightly decreased
cloud coverage.

Cloudy skies and periods of rain will keep low temps slightly
above normal Wednesday night (near 70F) followed by well below
normal high temps Thursday afternoon (around 80F). Lows Thursday
night in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure system will slowly move northeastward across the
Outer Banks on Friday before being picked up by a stronger
system over the Northeast late Saturday. While chance pops
remain in the forecast for Friday due to model blends and timing
uncertainties, have continued the trend of lowering the pops
from previous forecast as subsidence in NW flow behind exiting
low and dry air aloft will hinder precipitation. While
subsidence inversion around 700mb is still present in forecast
soundings on Saturday, approach of a shortwave aloft combined
with plenty of instability and sea breeze (high in the low 90s)
looks to be enough for scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon/evening.

A cold front approaches Saturday night, though may stall north
of the area before returning northward early next week.
Unsettled weather remains in the forecast through Tuesday with
a series of impulses moving across, high PWATs, and decent
instability each afternoon. Temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to open the 06Z TAF period. Some MVFR ceilings are lingering
near KGGE, and may push over towards KCRE/KMYR over the next
couple of hours. E to SE winds will pick up later this morning
to near 10 kts, gusting near 20 kts in the afternoon as a system
moves in from the SSW. This will cause conditions to become
solidly MVFR and possibly IFR starting with coastal SC
terminals, then KFLO, then KILM/KLBT. Showers will follow the
drop in ceilings, becoming more widespread after 21Z. Embedded
TSRA was represented at each terminal, mostly using PROB30
groups.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in established MVFR/IFR
Wednesday night. Next weather system brings more rain chances
and flight restrictions Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A seemingly sea breeze induced southeast flow
has developed across the waters this afternoon but the overall
synoptic flow will shift back to mainly east tonight. This flow
will persist through the day Wednesday probably in the higher
end of a 10- 15 knot range. Significant seas should be on the
move higher in time with the sustained decent fetch ranging from
2-4 feet tonight to 3-5 feet later Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...The main feature in the short
term remains an area of low pressure forecasted to develop over
the inland Carolinas early Thursday, moving across eastern
Carolinas Thursday into Thursday night, and off the Outer Banks
around Friday. Winds and seas are forecasted to remain sub-
advisory with the passage of the low, with winds around 15 kts
veering from SE to S to SW Wed night through Thurs night and
seas of 4-5 ft from a southerly fresh swell. Heavy rain
associated with the low Wednesday night through Thursday night
will bring periods of low visibilities across the local coastal
waters. Winds turn briefly offshore Friday as low exits north of
the area before turning southwesterly again for Saturday and
Sunday. Seas around 2-4 ft Friday through Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/VAO