290
FXUS62 KILM 240003
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
703 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to move offshore Sunday. The resulting
southwesterly winds will bring seasonable temperatures Sunday
followed by a warmup through Tuesday. A weak cold front late
Tuesday will be followed by unsettled weather that will include
Thanksgiving.

&&

.UPDATE...
Lowered temperatures for tonight as we`ll stay a couple degrees
above freezing. Expecting increased frost coverage tonight
warranting the frost advisory. Updated aviation discussion
below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Satellite loop looking dramatically different today with the
previously in place deep trough lifting off the NE U.S. Meanwhile
at the surface high pressure is still building in from the NW. Winds
will die off to just a few kt if not go calm altogether allowing for
radiational cooling. Interestingly the rather tightly clustered
guidance does not show readings that are much colder than last night
as the breeze stayed up. Frost Advisory raised for all but beaches
and our two western counties that have already been cleared, but
would not be surprised if the frost is patchy in nature rather than
widespread, something the next shift can contemplate as today grew a
bit warmer than fcst and last night`s guidance was all a few deg too
cool. Winds turn back around to SW Sunday allowing for seasonable
temperatures under a continuation of minimal cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual warming expected through Monday night as high pressure
weakens and southwest flow envelops the region on Monday. Dry PW
will keep skies mostly clear outside of cirrus or low level cumulus.
Low level advection continues Monday night with much warmer lows in
the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highs above normal on Tuesday ahead of a cold front arriving later
in the day. Light showers will be possible with the cold front
although the system is likely to be limited on available moisture.
Afternoon gusts up to 20 mph.

Brief high pressure builds on Wednesday with temperatures back to
normal. This high pressure will move quickly and create a brief
wedge across the Carolinas and Virginia Wednesday night into
Thursday.

An area of low pressure tracking along or west of the Appalachians
Wednesday night into Thursday will push a warm front through the
Carolinas. Warm air advection atop the eroding cold pool and
increased moisture availability will likely bring isolated showers
and milder temperatures to the area for Thanksgiving Day. This
advection could be strong enough to produce a few isolated
thunderstorms. A strong jet overhead may also mix strong winds to
the surface even if precip remains non-convective. This will need to
monitored over the next several days as a potential severe weather
threat.

A cold front associated with the surface low will push through the
area for Friday, but not before widespread showers develop late
Thursday and Thursday night. Rain will likely cause some slower
travel on a busy holiday and into the early morning hours of Black
Friday.

Much cooler air to follow for next weekend with below normal
temperatures likely under clearing skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Light NW winds will become calm
away from the coast later tonight. Winds will then become out of
the SW by Sunday morning increasing to around 5-7 kts in the
afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday
as high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of
restrictions later Tuesday as a cold front approaches.
Visibility restrictions from rain and lowered ceilings are
expected Wednesday as well as on Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Winds and seas will continue to abate as high
pressure builds in from the NW. The short 4-5second wind wave will
be the only part of the predominant seas as there is little to no
swell out there at this time.

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night... High pressure will gradually
weaken Sunday night into Monday, allowing warm air advection in SW
flow to become re-established across the region. Southwesterly flow
will increase Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front approaches
the region. This will lead to gusts up to 20 knots across the
nearshore waters for Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will accompany the front late Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially
in the 20-40 nm zones. Warm advective gusts tend to be limited in
their potential for hazardous gusts, so conditions are expected to
remain below SCA thresholds. Cold advection to follow will also be
weak as high pressure quickly transits the Ohio River Valley and
Delmarva region by Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
SC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for SCZ024-032-033-
     039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM