632
FXUS62 KILM 081742
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1242 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight. Slightly cooler and
drier conditions are on tap for the weekend as high pressure
builds in from the north. The high will shift offshore Mon
followed by the next cold frontal passage Mon night and even
cooler high pressure for the mid week period of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Overall no major changes with the latest update. Some
instability ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to some
showers across the area until the front passes overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The high stratocu and altocu decks have limited the widespread
fog development early this morning as well as the intensity, ie
the dense portion. Eventhough models were bullish on the
widespread coverage and dense portion. Have a SPS for pockets
of dense fog good for the entire ILM CWA thru 10am. Will have to
play reactionary, and monitor conditions for the possible
future need of a DFA.

Do expect the fog and any low stratus clouds to dissipate by
mid to late morning with Cu and Stratocu possible ahead of the
approaching cold front during the afternoon. Latest MOS guidance
has max temps around 80 and given the W-NW winds aloft, this
could bring highs to around 80 at the beaches. At this point, N
Myr Bch max temp looks achievable before the sea breeze puts a
lid on its climb any hier. Have included isolated POPs for
showers this aftn or early evening associated with the weak
dynamics associated with the approaching cold front. As the
ridge aloft amplifies, look for the cold front to get pushed
southward, across the area tonight, and south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sat. In its wake, expect a tightening sfc pg and CAA to
overtake the FA overnight. Should see lows tonight drop into
the 50.

Record highs for Friday Nov 8
Wilmington     84 in 1986
Lumberton      83 in 1924
N Myrtle Beach 80 in 2000, 1948 & 1946
Florence       84 in 1986

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build into the area from the
north/northeast Saturday and quickly move offshore Sunday with a
return flow developing. The forecast remains dry throughout
with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Overnight
lows will vary considerably near 50 Sunday morning and the lower
60s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad system will move across the area early next week and
pops remain in the forecast for MOnday and Tuesday. LIttle
confidence in the time frame however as forcing and moisture are
muted. In time the short and near term periods will likely
offer up a better defined solution. Basically a dry forecast
later in the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side with
some cooling noted late.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in mostly VFR conditions through 18Z Saturday,
with low confidence regarding brief restrictions from showers
and/or low clouds from a passing cold front through tonight.
Could even see some fog overnight prior to the frontal passage,
mainly in SC where the front and drier air will be later to
arrive. Otherwise, winds will be pretty light/variable this
afternoon shifting to northerly and increasing a bit, then
becoming NE and gusty starting around daybreak.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate Sat/Sun before flight
restrictions possible late Sun into Mon as rain chances return
aided by the next frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sfc pressure pattern somewhat disorganized
today across the waters especially with the lack of any sfc pg.
Will run with a morning weak land breeze followed by a sea
breeze. By late today, a cold front dropping south will produce
SW becoming W to NW winds ahead of it. Look for this CFP to
occur tonight followed by a slightly delayed NE 15-20 g25kt
surge behind it, pushing across the waters from N to S during
the pre- dawn Sat hrs. The SCA will commence around 6am Sat.
Seas generally 2 to 3 ft, mainly from a SE to SSE swell at 7 to
9 second periods. NE short period wind waves will eventually
dominate the seas spectrum at the end of this period, or shortly
there-after.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...High pressure builds in Saturday
and quickly moves offshore Sunday. A decent surge of NE winds
20-25 knots at times and significant seas of 4-6 feet warrants a
quick/marginal small craft advisory. A very modest southwest
flow will develop Sunday and Monday ahead of a relatively weak
approaching cold front. Behind this system a northeast flow
builds in. Significant seas outside of the headline will be 2-4
feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...DCH/SHK