868
FXUS62 KILM 171118
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
718 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

From the 3 AM EDT Update: All sections updated. Excessive heat
warning/watch now in effect for eastern sections of the area
today/tomorrow, respectively.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)The heat and humidity continues for the next several days, likely
peaking today and tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The heat and humidity continues for the next
several days, likely peaking today and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Though the mid level ridge remains
of low amplitude across the Gulf and Southern U.S. 500 mb
heights remain in excess of 590 dam. 850mb temps will be in the
20-23C range and at least for today and tomorrow a piedmont
trough will focus 1000-500mb thicknesses of 582 dam across much
of the Southeast. Pair this with a continuation of humid
conditions and today/tomorrow could wind up being the hottest
feeling days of the summer, with two main caveats. Those caveats
are the potential mixing down of lower dewpoints yielding lower
HI values and the uncertain convective coverage. For now we
have a dry forecast both days with both mid level and sub-cloud
dry air noted in soundings. Have raised Excessive Heat Warning
for eastern zones and Heat Advisory for westernmost counties
where aforementioned mixing appears most likely. Tuesday looks
to play out similarly so an Excessive Heat Watch raised for the
same counties as todays Warning (advisory will be needed inland
Tuesday but didn`t feel the need for so many headlines and
prefer to keep advisories first two periods or so).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy stratus has developed across the area this morning,
mainly as a result of heavy rain and saturated soils. Mix of
VFR debris clouds and IFR stratus across the region, becoming
VFR with mostly clear skies by mid to late morning. Restrictions
become more intermittent and ending by mid morning. A stray
storm is possible this afternoon, but have maintained VFR TAFs
due to the low probabilities. Patchy fog possible late tonight.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected much of the
week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening
storms could result in brief restrictions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday...Overall expect light winds through the
period, though there could be some enhancement in the afternoon
in sea breeze areas in south to southwest flow Monday
afternoon. Overall, winds and seas should be relatively benign
outside convection through Thursday. Some longer period swell
arrives from the SE on Tuesday but without any real increase in
dominant wave height.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ096-099-105>110.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MBB