401
FXUS62 KILM 241029
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
629 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast with this
update. Rain chances are lower now for next week, following
this weekend`s expected rainfall. Aviation discussion updated
for 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above-normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity, and
zero rain chances through early Saturday afternoon will lead to
intensifying drought and fire weather concerns.

2) No significant impact on drought conditions expected despite
the best rain chances/amounts in quite some time this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Above-normal temperatures, low daytime
relative humidity, and zero rain chances through early Saturday
afternoon will lead to intensifying drought and fire weather
concerns.

Another warm day with deep mixing in store for today with high
temps in the upper 80s, triggering a sea breeze to keep the
immediate coast breezy later this afternoon and in the upper 70s
- low 80s. Mixing heights around 10 kft will bring down
dewpoints in the 40s (ahead of the sea breeze), with potential
for upper 30s near I-95 corridor. Combined with above normal
temps, min RH this afternoon will be in the 20-25% range for
most of the CWA. While ongoing drought and dry air will
contribute to fire weather concerns, winds today will be
strongest in the sea breeze where humidity will be higher. Some
hi-res guidance tries to produce isolated showers along the sea
breeze this afternoon, but dry air aloft will limit cloud depth
and dry below the high cloud bases will hinder any precipitation
from making it to the ground.

Warm and dry weather continue through midday Saturday, with highs
again in the upper 80s and min RH in the low 30s. Southwest winds
will be increasing a bit during the day as cold front approaches
later in the day. Sea breeze showers may be possible Saturday
afternoon, but persistent dry air and drought conditions mean
confidence is low.


KEY MESSAGE 2... No significant impact on drought conditions
expected despite the best rain chances/amounts in quite some
time this weekend.

A mid-level shortwave trough and associated sfc frontal system
are still progged to move through the area late Saturday into
Sunday, leading to 70-80% PoPs over the entire area with the
highest chances being Saturday night. With the fairly
progressive nature of this system and meager deep-layer
moisture, not expecting a heavy rainfall or much drought relief.
QPF is up to around half an inch, with guidance showing some
locals could see higher amounts. Sfc high pressure builds in
early next week, with low rain chances sticking around much of
the week with transient shortwave energy aloft, but again no
heavy rain anticipated through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with diurnal clouds around 10kft during the day. Winds
generally out of the south-southwest, with gusty sea breeze out
of the south for coastal terminals this afternoon.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through midday
Saturday. Showers associated with a cold front could bring MVFR
conditions late Saturday through Sunday. Overnight stratus/fog
possible Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Southwest winds 15-20 kts prevail across the
local waters through this evening, with gusts around 25 kts
late afternoon into evening hours. Winds lower to 10-15 kts
tonight out to 20 nm, while remaining around 15-20 kts from
20-60nm. Seas generally in the 3-4 ft range through tonight for
most of the waters, with 2-3 ft forecasted for the 0-20nm
coastal waters off of NE SC. Seas continue to be a combination
of SW wind wave and a E swell.

Saturday through Tuesday... S/SW winds 15-18 kt expected
Saturday ahead of a cold front which drops through the waters
late Saturday night. Winds then shift to the NNE for Sunday and
Monday, with a low to moderate chance of SCA conditions Sunday
night into Monday over coastal waters with the NE surge behind
the front and some guidance hinting at sfc low pressure
development offshore. Gusts over the 20-60 NM waters up to 25-30
kt. Winds will weaken and come around to the S for Tuesday
ahead of another cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/VAO
DISCUSSION...MAS/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO