202
FXUS62 KILM 081154
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
654 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning fog should dissipate by mid to late this morning,
leaving a partly sunny warm afternoon. Isolated showers are
possible this afternoon ahead of a cold front that should push
across and south of the area tonight. Slightly cooler and drier
conditions are on tap for the weekend as high pressure builds
in from the north. The high will shift offshore Mon followed by
the next cold frontal passage Mon night and even cooler high
pressure for the mid week period of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The high stratocu and altocu decks have limited the widespread
fog development early this morning as well as the intensity, ie
the dense portion. Eventhough models were bullish on the
widespread coverage and dense portion. Have a SPS for pockets
of dense fog good for the entire ILM CWA thru 10am. Will have to
play reactionary, and monitor conditions for the possible
future need of a DFA.

Do expect the fog and any low stratus clouds to dissipate by
mid to late morning with Cu and Stratocu possible ahead of the
approaching cold front during the afternoon. Latest MOS guidance
has max temps around 80 and given the W-NW winds aloft, this
could bring highs to around 80 at the beaches. At this point, N
Myr Bch max temp looks achievable before the sea breeze puts a
lid on its climb any hier. Have included isolated POPs for
showers this aftn or early evening associated with the weak
dynamics associated with the approaching cold front. As the
ridge aloft amplifies, look for the cold front to get pushed
southward, across the area tonight, and south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sat. In its wake, expect a tightening sfc pg and CAA to
overtake the FA overnight. Should see lows tonight drop into
the 50.

Record highs for Friday Nov 8
Wilmington     84 in 1986
Lumberton      83 in 1924
N Myrtle Beach 80 in 2000, 1948 & 1946
Florence       84 in 1986

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build into the area from the
north/northeast Saturday and quickly move offshore Sunday with a
return flow developing. The forecast remains dry throughout
with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Overnight
lows will vary considerably near 50 Sunday morning and the lower
60s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad system will move across the area early next week and
pops remain in the forecast for MOnday and Tuesday. LIttle
confidence in the time frame however as forcing and moisture are
muted. In time the short and near term periods will likely
offer up a better defined solution. Basically a dry forecast
later in the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side with
some cooling noted late.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level cloud deck has kept the widespread coverage and the
dense limited across all terminals. Any breaks in the mid level
cloud deck may give enough time thru 14z for possible IFR fog
and will highlight appropriately in the specific terminal`s TAF.
Otherwise, any fog or low stratus should be just a memory come
15Z. Models indicate enough breaks in the clouds for insolation
and isolated showers ahead of a cold front dropping southward.
Had prob30 group for the showers previously but at this point
will leave out and see what subsequent high res models runs cook
up with this potential pcpn. Could observe ground fog prior to
the CFP later tonight but may hold off from the TAF itself until
better confidence. Winds today generally W to NW 5 kt all
terminals, except sea breeze at the SC coastal terminals will
yield SE-S winds aob 7 kt. After the CFP overnight, winds will
at all terminals will become N-NE AOB 10 kt.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate Sat/Sun before flight
restrictions possible late Sun into Mon as rain chances return
aided by the next frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Sfc pressure pattern somewhat disorganized
today across the waters especially with the lack of any sfc pg.
Will run with a morning weak land breeze followed by a sea
breeze. By late today, a cold front dropping south will produce
SW becoming W to NW winds ahead of it. Look for this CFP to
occur tonight followed by a slightly delayed NE 15-20 g25kt
surge behind it, pushing across the waters from N to S during
the pre-dawn Sat hrs. The SCA will commence around 6am Sat. Seas
generally 2 to 3 ft, mainly from a SE to SSE swell at 7 to 9
second periods. NE short period wind waves will eventually
dominate the seas spectrum at the end of this period, or shortly
there-after.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...High pressure builds in Saturday
and quickly moves offshore Sunday. A decent surge of NE winds
20-25 knots at times and significant seas of 4-6 feet warrants a
quick/marginal small craft advisory. A very modest southwest
flow will develop Sunday and Monday ahead of a relatively weak
approaching cold front. Behind this system a northeast flow
builds in. Significant seas outside of the headline will be 2-4
feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-
     032-039-055-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK