989
FXUS62 KILM 060044
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
744 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled offshore will return north with much warmer
temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. The front may slip
south again Saturday, but should return north again Sunday
bringing one last day of unseasonable warmth. Low pressure
moving off the East Coast will bring cooler weather and better
rain chances to the area Monday through next Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Activity at the coast is limited but showers to our west will
start moving into the area soon. Some short bursts of lightning
are being observed in these western showers but activity is
diminishing as we continue into the night. Updated 00Z aviation
discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite and surface analysis shows a coastal trough developing
offshore. Weak isentropic lift along the coast is expected to
develop into a small area of showers near the Wilmington area and
drift northward toward Surf City and Topsail into the early evening
hours.

This evening, showers near the coast will move off to the north and
east with another area of lift approaching from the west. This area
of energy aloft will sustain showers across inland areas as they
cross the I-95 corridor en route to the coast overnight. Light winds
behind this impulse could lead to areas of fog by Thursday morning,
but confidence remains low at this time.

Gradual clearing early Thursday will become mostly clear skies which
should result in a rather nice afternoon. Expect highs in the low to
mid 70s as warm advective flow becomes re-established.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Humid southwest winds originating from Florida are expected
Thursday night into Friday. While some sea fog could affect
coastal areas, mainly dry weather and well-above normal
temperatures are expected given no obvious triggers for
precipitation and 850 mb temps of +10 to +12C. Thursday night`s
forecast lows 55-60 degrees are near our average highs for this
time of year, and Friday`s forecast highs of 73-77 are normal
for mid-late April.

Changes will start Friday afternoon as a cold front arrives
from the north. Unusual warmth and moisture means surface-based
CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg could exist as the front arrives,
potentially yielding scattered showers late in the day.
Instability wanes behind the front but is joined by modest
upglide over the frontal surface Friday night, so I`ll maintain
small chances for showers in the forecast. Quality of moisture
within the frontal inversion aloft could become suspect and
I`ll cap PoPs at no higher than 40 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The position of the stalled front makes Saturday`s temperature,
wind, and sky forecast very uncertain. 12z GFS, Canadian, and
ECMWF show the boundary stalled near or just south of the NC/SC
line, implying a significant temperature and sensible weather
contrast is possible across our area. Model ensemble spread for
high temp is large (8 to 12 deg F spread between the 25th and
75th percentile) Saturday. Compare this to only a 3 deg F spread
in the same statistical measure for Sunday`s highs when the
front has a high likelihood to be located well to our north,
placing our portion of the Carolinas firmly within the warm
sector.

Saturday`s forecast highs range from the upper 70s across
Kingstree, SC to the low-mid 60s from Bennettsville to
Lumberton, Elizabethtown, and Burgaw. But on Sunday forecasts
are solidly in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, except cooler
at the beaches where onshore winds will remain chilly due to
cold nearshore water.

Low pressure deepening off the Northeast U.S. coast Sunday
should push a cold front south across the eastern Carolinas
Sunday night. Rather than stalling nearby, there may be enough
push between the low offshore and high pressure building
eastward across the Plains states to nudge the front to our
south Monday through Wednesday. This means cooler temperatures
are likely, but also an extended period of clouds and periodic
rain chances as a series of disturbances ride near or just north
of the area within an active southern branch of the jet stream.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily MVFR in the area with an expectation that IFR will
follow within the next couple hours. Showers moving through SE
NC are shallow and shouldn`t affect terminals much, but showers
to our west will continue to stream in through the overnight
period. Confidence in IFR is high, the timing will be the issue.
Also with moisture increasing, fog/mist is possible towards
daybreak when showers have gone through. Have slowed improving
conditions a bit but VFR is still expected to return by Thursday
afternoon. Sea fog may impact KMYR/KCRE/KILM Thursday afternoon with
more brief restrictions for KILM.


Extended Outlook... VFR into Friday where brief MVFR/IFR may be
possible due to a frontal passage. Confidence remains low for
sea fog affecting the coastal terminals late week. Low
confidence MVFR Saturday morning becoming VFR later Saturday and
Sunday. Restrictions may return with increasing rain chances
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Winds around a developing coastal trough will
gradually turn northerly overnight. Showers along the coast will
increase in coverage late tonight as an upper level impulse cross
the area from west to east. Light northerly winds on Thursday
morning will quickly transition to south and southwest as warm
advective flow increases. Southwest flow on Thursday will peak
around 15-20 knots with periodic gusts up to 25 knots. Patchy fog or
areas of fog are expected to develop late Thursday as warm advective
flow lifts northward and surface dew points increase. Visibility
concerns are expected to continue intermittently through the
weekend.

Thursday Night through Monday...Humid southwest winds Thursday
night originating from Florida could result in areas of sea fog
across the coastal waters where water temperatures remain near
50 degrees. Sea fog could persist into Friday afternoon as
southwest winds continue. Winds are expected to veer more
westerly as a cold front approaches late in the day Friday. The
front should then move offshore Friday night with mainly
northeast winds expected during the day Saturday.

The front may not linger for long, returning north again
Saturday night as increasing southwest winds develop ahead of
low pressure strengthening well to our north. The return of
southwest winds and higher humidity could result in additional
sea fog issues Saturday into Sunday before a stronger cold
front arrives Sunday night. Northeast winds will drive cooler
air and higher rain chances in on Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/21