983
FXUS62 KILM 310016
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
716 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings chilly weather tonight into Wednesday with
seasonable weather for the late week period. Low pressure moving
west-to-east across the region will bring rain Friday night and
Saturday. Seasonable and rain-free conditions are then expected
heading into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A bone dry Canadian airmass covers most of the eastern United
States, brought southward by the northwesterly flow between 970 mb
low pressure over eastern Quebec and a high centered over eastern
Texas. Precipitable water values are barely 0.2 inches with
dewpoints in the mid-upper teens this afternoon. Winds should become
calm after sunset with nearly ideal radiational cooling anticipated.
Forecast lows are definitely on the chilly side with mid 20s
expected for most locations. Normally cold southeastern NC locations
with peat soil (like Holly Shelter Gameland) could dip into the 15-
20 degree range tonight.

High pressure should begin to move eastward along the Gulf coast
Wednesday. Surface winds should turn westerly, and even
southwesterly along the coast during the afternoon, with sunny skies
continuing. Forecast highs range from the upper 40s for the
Brunswick County beaches to the lower 50s across the Pee Dee region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will move slowly east from the Gulf to FL
during the course of the short term. In the mid levels tough remains
over the eastern U.S. but de-amplifies. Forecast soundings show some
cirrus level moistening and with a 250mb jet spilling SE across the
Appalachians this seems plausible. Tough to say when this layer
acquires enough opacity to have an effects on temperatures.
Currently it appears to take place after the short term so both
nights will have very similar lows. Prefrontal trough pushes through
right at the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure nearly circular over NE TX on Friday will elongate west-
to-east Saturday as it crosses our longitude. This will mean a
slightly slower increase in clouds on Friday, which now looks mostly
rain-free until 03Z or so. The low`s change in geometry will also
lead to weaker advective processes compared to yesterday which
should translate into less of the drought-releif that looked
possible yesterday. There has also been a southward shift in the
forecast track opening up a N/S gradient in expected rainfall,
highest south. Rain chances taper quickly Saturday with the exit of
the low and cloud cover will follow suit soon thereafter. There is
no push of cold air behind this system as low amplitude ridging
develops in the nations midsection leading to a seasonable end to
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Calm winds overnight will become SW around 5-10 mph
with gusts ~15-20 mph possible Wednesday afternoon. A SW breeze
will linger into Wednesday night.

Extended Outlook...Low level wind shear could develop Wednesday
night near the base of a westerly low level jet. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and MVFR visibility are likely in rain late Friday night
through Saturday as low pressure moves to our south.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Chilly northwest winds cover a good portion of
the East Coast between Canadian high pressure centered over Texas
and a 970 mb low over eastern Quebec. Winds should continue to
slowly diminish and should back westerly on Wednesday. Seas should
average 2 feet or less. No advisory headlines will be required.

Wednesday night through Sunday... W to NW flow early in the period
on the NE side weak high pressure progressing across the Gulf Coast.
Pre-frontal trough and then weak front itself push through Thursday
night or Friday increase winds and seas. Have held off on SCA as it`s
still a few periods out, the low coming from the west looks slower,
and the southward shift of the track could affect where the
gradient gets tightest. There are also some stability arguments to be
made with SST`s so cool so have relegated SCA to the HWO only. As
the low moves by Sat winds veer from NW to NE decrease at first as
the low passes by, then increase again with the push of the high
from the north. Most of the period will be dominated by wind waves.
After the low passes by however a ENE swell will start to
materialize.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM