271
FXUS62 KILM 081235
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
835 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Raised the rip current risk a category with a report of numerous
rip currents present as a 2-3 ft southeast swell with a period
of 8 sec affects the beaches today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from the SC Lowcountry
today back into northeastern South Carolina and southeastern
North Carolina Sunday into Monday.

2) Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, but with
increasing temperatures and potential for the heat index to exceed
105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from
the SC Lowcountry today back into northeastern South Carolina
and southeastern North Carolina Sunday into Monday.

A slug of dry mid level air associated with the Bermuda ridge
offshore should lead to a lower potential for showers and
thunderstorms across our portion of the eastern Carolinas today.
This dry air shows up quite well in model precipitable water plots
which have PW values falling as low as 1.4 inches today. This is
near the 25th percentile for early August and is as much as 1.0
inches lower than we saw just a few days ago.

Just to the south of this ribbon of dry mid level air will be much
richer moisture values extending across Florida, Georgia, and into
southern South Carolina. HREF PoP/QPF plots show the northern edge
of this moisture could draw close enough to the Santee River for
some scattered showers and storms to develop there today,
potentially affecting Georgetown and Kingstree but likely remaining
south of Myrtle Beach. Forecast PoPs range from 20-40 percent today
across Georgetown and Williamsburg counties, but generally
0-10 percent across the Cape Fear area and northern Pee Dee
regions.

The center of the Bermuda ridge should sink south Sunday into
Monday, allowing veering mid level wind directions and increasing
Gulf moisture across the area. Precipitable water values should
climb back toward 2.0 inches by late Sunday and should rise even
further on Monday. This should set the stage for increasing coverage
of showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through
Thursday, but with increasing temperatures and potential for
the heat index to exceed 105 degrees.

The mid and upper level ridge will begin to retrograde westward
across Florida and into the eastern Gulf by the middle of next
week. Westerly downsloping flow over the southern Appalachians
should push our 850 mb temps above +20C each day beginning
Tuesday. This should equate to highs in the 93-97 degree range.
Add in seasonably high dewpoints well into the 70s and it`s
possible heat indices will exceed 105 degrees beginning Tuesday.
A Heat Advisory may be needed each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No real changes since the earlier issuance of the aviation
forecast with morning fog and low ceilings being the the
primary weather concerns. Calm surface winds, seasonably high
dewpoints, and mainly clear skies aloft have set the stage for
fog. Recent hourly statistical models suggest visibility should
begin to drop at KFLO between 08-10z, with IFR vis and/or
ceilings possible between 10-13z. Confidence in impacts is high,
although confidence in timing is only moderate. KLBT should
have largely the same conditions, although statistical guidance
is not as bullish about IFR impacts as they are at KFLO.

Ceiling and visibility should both become VFR after 13z.
Afternoon convection appears it may be more limited in coverage
today than we`ve seen over the past several days, mainly due to
dry mid level conditions courtesy of the Bermuda high offshore.
There is a low potential convection may develop in the vicinity
of KMYR or KFLO during the daylight hours, but not enough
confidence for any mention in the TAFs.

Extended Forecast...Increasing moisture should fuel scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday, with an even larger coverage
of storms expected Monday. Hotter weather is expected for the
middle of next week with isolated showers and thunderstorms
still possible. Late night/early morning low ceilings are
possible day, especially inland, affecting the KFLO and KLBT
airports.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda high pressure offshore should remain the dominant
weather maker for us over the next five days. The center of the
high is currently between Bermuda and Cape Fear, close enough to
limit today`s coverage of showers and thunderstorms for areas
north of Myrtle Beach. The high should sink south next week,
leading to winds veering more westerly and increasing in speed.
We also should experience a larger number of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and especially Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA