518
FXUS62 KILM 191942
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front and low pressure aloft will result in a
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorm today. Slightly
cooler and drier weather will accompany persistent north-
northeasterly winds from Friday through the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the north. Rain chances could return by
mid next week as moisture increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers continue across the area this aftn, due to a combo
of sfc outflow boundaries and cyclonic flow aloft in conjunction
with decent deep-layer moisture. Expect the activity to wave
following the loss in daytime heating, with the main upr-level
trough axis also pulling off the coast. With today`s rainfall, light
winds, and small dewpoint depressions tonight, expect patchy to
areas of fog mainly inland, though the overall coverage remains
unclear due to the continued presence of mid-level clouds and a bit
of boundary-layer wind. Low temps in the mid 60s. Dry then for
Friday with sfc high pressure building in from the NW and the upr-
level trough offshore. Similar temps Friday as today...highs in the
low/mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet period expected with mostly dry conditions under ridging high
pressure. Some daytime instability could lead to shallow pop-up
showers Friday due to lingering low-level moisture, but these will
yield little to no rainfall as dry air remains dominant aloft. Highs
in the mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period stays primarily dry until mid next week when moisture
from a low in the Midwest makes it around the mountains amidst
ridging high pressure. Low rain chances will then linger through the
end of the period as the high weakens. Temperatures near
seasonable. Models remain inconsistent on the potential for a
tropical system at the end of the period, but this will be
monitored as the forecast period progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR to start off the 18Z TAF period. Scattered showers
are starting to form across the areas, and could lead to
occasional MVFR/IFR for the remainder of the day. Low cigs
and/or vsbys then likely, at least inland, late tonight into
Friday morning especially over areas that received rainfall
today. Boundary layer winds are more favorable for low stratus,
but with with today`s rain and lighter wind in spots, fog cannot
be ruled out. Conditions improve to VFR everyday into the day
Friday with dry weather.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early
morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue as sfc high pres builds
in from the NW. Winds generally out of the NE, up to 10-15 kt during
the day Friday. Seas 2-4 ft Friday, a combo of easterly 9-10 second
swell and the NE 3-4 second wind wave.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Expect N to NE flow through the
period generally around 10 kts. Wind speeds will increase to near 15
kts due to NE surges with ridging high pressure Fri night and Mon.
Waveheights generally 2-4 ft with 4 footers more designated to the
SE NC coastal waters ~20 nm out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides and NE flow continue the coastal flood
threat through the weekend. WLON7 made it to moderate flooding
today, and with about a 50% chance of it happening again midday
Friday, went ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Watch for both sides
of the lower Cape Fear River. Otherwise, mainly expecting only minor
flooding for the other high tide cycles, as well as for the beaches
where Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Friday for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ107-109.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday
     afternoon for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Friday for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...