571
FXUS62 KILM 220046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
846 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north with a front passing
through tonight before stalling just south of the area. As the
high moves offshore into the weekend the front and some coastal
low pressure will be pulled north through our area increasing rain
chances for the weekend. Another front will move through early
next week bringing some of the coolest weather the area has recorded
in months.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes to the public/marine forecasts other than update
some headlines. New aviation forecast discussion for 00Z TAFs is
below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak shortwave in the mid level flow is pushing a
cold front southward across the area this afternoon. This pattern is
of course complicated or aided by the departing hurricane now well
off to the northeast. Some sun has broken out points north and west
and some very low pops are maintained to address this activity. The
focus then shifts to the front and its southward progress through
Friday. Most guidance and the official forecast have it to the south
and this area seems favored for higher pops late tonight and through
the day Friday. Some boundary layer residual wind complicates the
low temperature forecast for tonight but upper 60s to lower 70s
seems reasonable. The moisture does the same for Friday`s highs but
for now lower 80s seems doable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will ridge down from the north with a front stalled to
our south. The center of the high will start moving offshore to our
north at the start of the period but the broader area won`t start to
move offshore until Saturday night. This will drag the front back to
the north where low pressure along it will move up the coast.
Moisture will recover into Saturday night, particularly near the
coast. POPs will go from mainly NE SC for the day Saturday to our
coastal areas Saturday night. Highs will be a bit warmer for SE NC
without a majority of the rain/clouds during the day, so NE SC will
be more near 80 and SE NC in the mid 80s. Lows in the upper 60s
inland and near 70 towards the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The coastal low pressure will continue to the NE through Sunday with
better coverage of showers/storms Sunday afternoon. Drier air will
then filter in as a cold front pushes through late Monday in to
Tuesday. Lingering moisture at the coast will lead to some scattered
activity possible mainly near the coast, but onwards we`ll become
mostly dry as cooler, drier high pressure builds in from the west.
Highs will drop well below normal with noticeably lower humidity by
mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through 00Z/23. A passing cold front and upper disturbance will
bring a low risk for showers (and possibly a tstm) tonight with
a continuing risk Friday, mainly in SC at KMYR/KFLO, as the
front stalls just south of the area. Otherwise, there`s also a
low risk of MVFR cigs, with an even low risk for IFR cigs,
mainly after 06Z, possibly continuing into Fri (mainly in SC).

Extended Outlook...A cold front pushing slowly to the south may lead
to flight restrictions during the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Winds and seas continue to come down this
afternoon and the small craft advisory has been cancelled a bit
early for the South Carolina waters. The northern waters are
still seeing some higher winds and seas via closer proximity to
the departing tropical cyclone. In a few hours the initial north
to northwest winds will turn to more north to northeast with
overall speeds finding a bottom in a range of 10-15 knots.
Significant seas will drop from 4-6 feet NC waters to 3-4 feet
while points further south will see the trend from 3-5 to 2-4
feet.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Continued improvement of marine
conditions expected through the period. Winds will be ENE ~ 10-15
kts until a coastal low moves by on Sunday, winds turning around to
the SW Monday ahead of a cold front. Northerly flow then builds in
Tuesday. A weakening long period swell from the ENE may linger
through the period at ~12-13 seconds, with waves 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide cycle through the weekend with the evening
high tide cycles being the higher high tide. Minor coastal flooding
is also expected along the SE NC and NE SC coasts through at least
Friday, mainly during the higher evening high tides. There is
even a very low risk that the lower Cape Fear River will see
marginally moderate flooding during the evening high tides
through Fri.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of rip currents is expected to continue
through Friday north of Cape Fear due to lingering swells from
Hurricane Erin.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107-109.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB/LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...