507
FXUS62 KILM 082328
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our north will continue to ridge into the
Carolinas through the weekend. Offshore low pressure is expected
to move off to the northeast over the weekend. More typical
summertime weather should return by the middle of next week.
Temperatures below to near normal will warm up by late in the
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes made to the public/marine forecasts. Few
showers this evening will diminish, especially inland, with the
best chance of showers continuing overnight near the SC coast.
Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Apart from a few coastal locations, the entire area has held in the
mid and upper 70s today. A strong wedge has held low stratus through
the early afternoon before finally yielding to weak boundary layer
mixing. A few showers remain possible along the coast this
afternoon. It will be difficult, but a few showers may reach the LFC
where plentiful instability exists. If one or two of these storms
can flourish, slow storm motions and saturated soils should caution
the potential for localized flooding.

Persistence seems the best route for tonight`s forecast with little
change in our controlling features (high to our north and wedge
overhead). There could be some brief clearing overhead during sunset
and the early evening. This should be quickly replaced by low
stratus late tonight. Lows nearly copied from yesterday: upper 60s
to around 70.

Stubborn cold air damming will begin a gradual transition on
Saturday. An approaching ridge across the eastern US will allow the
upper level Bermuda high to re-engage southerly moisture transport
near the southeastern Atlantic coast. The wedge begins to weaken as
low pressure shifts farther offshore and NE winds veer slightly in
favor of broad anti-cyclonic surface circulation. The additional
mass and moisture transport will likely converge onshore. Models
highlight the southern Grand Strand as the best chance for showers
and storms during the afternoon. While a gradient of instability
develops along the entire coastline during the afternoon, onshore
flow could push showers into coastal communities during the
afternoon. Highs will be a little tricky. Clouds should hold for a
good part of the day inland with broken skies and showers to the
south. The warmest area may be coastal southeastern NC where clouds
break during the afternoon, but showers are delayed by remnant dry
air aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Wedge continues to have a good hold on the area, keeping
temperatures on the cool side for early-mid August (highs in the
lower 80s, lows in the lower 70s).

That was the easier part of the forecast. The harder part is
diagnosing rain chances and rain coverage through this period.
Saturday night looks to show a similar pattern that you would expect
for summer, where any lingering convection leftover from the
afternoon should die off after sunset. That old surface low is well
off to the northeast at this point, and riding aloft builds very
slightly to the southwest. Onshore flow does increase moisture
profiles a bit, and the precipitable water crawls back up to near
2.00" by Sunday. This definitely introduces rain chances, no doubt,
but I`ve been skeptical of guidance running so high. There`s no
predominant synoptic feature, like a front or a trough. There is
some modest vorticity found riding the lee side of the ridge at 850-
700 mb, which helps along some convection, but that still doesn`t
explain rain chances that run that high (70-80%). Even the
isentropic analysis doesn`t look too impressive, with only some
spotty upglide found at 305K. With all of this in mind, the latest
forecast now shows rain chances in the 50-60% range, which feels
more appropriate for this setup.

Sunday night should see a lull in the activity inland, while some
offshore showers and storms will try to scrape the coast
intermittently throughout the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday looks to have a rather similar setup to Sunday, so the
forecast reflects that accordingly.

In classic wedge fashion, guidance is having trouble figuring out
when it`ll erode. For one thing, the series of frontal systems
originating out of the Great Lakes and Upper Plains regions don`t
look quite as stout as they were during yesterday`s day shift
forecast. The trough associated with it looks to bottom out
somewhere in the mid-Atlantic region, while the ridge down south
prevents it from getting into the Carolinas. Temperatures look a bit
warmer Tuesday, but the trends look more Wednesday being the
"transitional" weather day in which the wedge gradually starts to
erode. Look for an eventual return of summertime convection chances
in the afternoon. Temperatures back around 90 look to return
sometime late in the work week, and worse yet, triple digit indices
could be back as early as Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in mostly VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF
period across SE NC and NE SC, especially away from the SC coast
(KCRE/KMYR) where low clouds will likely linger longest Saturday.
However, MVFR to IFR cigs are expected overnight with
improvement after daybreak, especially at KILM/KLBT/KFLO.
Expect a low to moderate risk for showers/few storms from late
morning through afternoon, especially around and south of the
Grand Strand area.

Extended Outlook...Restrictions to flight categories may
continue into the weekend due to either spotty afternoon
convection or low ceilings each nighttime/morning periods. More
of the same is possible into early next week, though the high
pressure wedge pattern may start to break by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...High pressure over the northeastern US will
maintain northeasterly flow through Saturday. Winds may begin to
veer later in the day on Saturday as the high pressure broadens and
the Bermuda high siphons moisture northward. Seas 2-3 feet with ENE
swell.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...ENE winds at 5-10 kts become
more ESE by Tuesday, and then a more familiar SSW by Wednesday.
Seas linger at 1-3 ft through Monday night, decreasingly
slightly to 1-2 ft by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...IGB/21