Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
838 FXUS62 KILM 282321 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 721 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast has been updated for the near-term lack of convection along the coast and for the expected arrival of convection west of the I-95 corridor this evening. This wave of storms currently over the Uwharries and quite imposing looking on radar, is expected to have little success making it east of I-95. However new convection should develop along the coast overnight with PoPs rising into the likely category from Myrtle Beach through Wilmington by sunrise Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall at times. 2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall at times. Mid-upper troughing over the eastern US will gradually weaken and lift away through this weekend while upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week. Near the surface, a stalled front northwest of the area will keep plenty of moisture in place, with precipitable water values generally between 2-2.25 inches, highest near the coast. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr can easily occur in a thunderstorm in this environment. Periods of enhanced shower and thunderstorm coverage are expected given this setup. Confidence is increasing for one such period to occur tonight into Saturday morning near the coast, followed by isolated to widely scattered afternoon activity. Heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding is the primary concern with any slow-moving thunderstorm, especially if storms end up backbuilding over the same area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week. As upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week, temperatures will rise above normal and shower/thunderstorm chances will decrease to below seasonal norms. With the core of the high pressure center shifting nearly overhead by midweek, expect well- above normal highs in the middle to potentially upper 90s. Heat Advisory criteria may be reached between Wednesday and Friday, although enough dry air in the lower atmosphere may be able to keep heat indices from reaching 105F or greater across much of the area. Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is needed, a period of mostly sunny, dry, and abnormally hot conditions is becoming more likely. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There are many moving pieces in the forecast overnight is leading to lower than normal confidence. Firstly: convection near KLBT may be joined by new storms arriving from the northwest early this evening. Models show this activity should fragment and largely dissipate between 01-02z. There is a high potential for impacts at KLBT, and a low potential at KFLO. Later tonight models paint a moderate potential for low stratus and possibly some ground fog developing near KLBT and KFLO. These low ceilings and visibility are contingent on skies becoming clear enough for temperatures to cool, and that is not a foregone conclusion given some models showing showers developing again after 08z. The window for low stratus or fog is generally after 10z. Models also show an expanding area of convective showers developing along the coast late tonight. There is a high potential for impacts at KILM and a moderate potential for impacts at KMYR and KCRE mainly after 09z. Any coastal convection should wrap up between 14-15z Saturday. Scattered inland storms could fire up after 18-19z Saturday. Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through mid next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening through Sunday, with little to no activity expected Monday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... South to southwesterly flow weakens tonight as a stalled front shifts to the coast. As this front washes out and high pressure north of the area takes over, a light east to southeast flow is expected from Saturday through Sunday night. High pressure will prevail off the coast by early next week with a return of south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts. Seas are expected to run 1-2 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi zones primarily driven by east-southeast 8-9 sec swells. Southerly 1-2 ft wind waves will gradually weaken tonight, leaving its component at 1 ft or less from Saturday onward. && .CLIMATE... Wilmington, NC is currently experiencing its hottest summer on record. Average temperature (the simple average of each day`s high and low temps) is currently 0.1 deg F above 2011`s average, the current record-hottest summer season. #1 2026 81.9 deg F (with four days to go) #2 2011 81.8 deg F #3 2010 81.8 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...TRA MARINE...ABW