638
FXUS62 KILM 020014
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
814 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring onshore flow through Wednesday. The
lingering front to the south will lift back north as a warm
front late Wednesday with much above normal warmth arriving for
Thursday through Sunday. Outside of low rain chances late
Wednesday, the next chance of rain will be late Sunday into
Monday accompanying another cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
There`s quite a dewpoint gradient across the area from coastal
to inland locations. Shallow Atlantic moisture pushing onshore
behind this afternoon`s seabreeze should push farther inland
overnight, likely yielding a layer of low stratus clouds with
time. There`s already signs of this stratus developing at North
Myrtle Beach where some 600 foot AGL clouds were recently
reported. The largest aerial extend of stratus is expected to
develop inland across the Pee Dee region after midnight.

One more feature of note is a secondary surge of northeasterly
winds making its way down the North Carolina coastline. The
latest HRRR and the 18z NAM show this reaching the coastal
waters before midnight with an increase in wind speeds expected.
I`ve blended in these two models to bring wind speeds up
another few knots, mainly for the NC waters late tonight. The
18z NWPS wave run did not significantly increase forecast sea
heights.

No significant changes have been made to temperatures or sky
cover forecasts overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front has stalled from along the coast westward through the
Pee Dee region and is demarcating dew points in the low 60s
from those in the low-mid 50s. Cloudiness has largely
dissipated, except in the vicinity of the front along the
coast. Expect the continued advection of low-level dry air and
increasing subsidence aloft to gradually dry out these clouds by
late in the day, leaving a mostly clear sky for this evening
into early tonight. However, as high pressure to the north
shifts offshore, winds will veer to southeasterly tonight and
bring increasing moisture back over the shallow dry air mass
that arrived on Tuesday. This will lead to increasing cloudiness
as stratus clouds develop overnight and spread across the
region. With generally light winds and mainly clear skies this
evening, expect temperatures to drop rather quickly before
slowing down or going steady as easterly winds pick up by
midnight. As stratus clouds arrive, temps will hold steady or
even rise a little where they move overhead during the latter
half of the night. Expect lows generally in the middle 50s,
except low 50s in northeastern portions of the forecast area.

On Wednesday, an anomalous ridge begins building over the
Atlantic near The Bahamas, setting up southwesterly flow
overhead and raising mid-level heights. Near the surface, high
pressure northeast of the area will maintain east to
southeasterly winds through the day, keeping a flow of moist
ocean air into the forecast area over a shallow wedge of
relatively dry air. The end result should be considerable
cloudiness continuing through the day on Wednesday, with
daytime heating helping to eat away at the clouds somewhat,
although just how much clearing can be achieved in the afternoon
carries lower than normal confidence. It is quite possible that
cloudy or mostly cloudy skies remain in place almost
everywhere, which would keep daytime highs somewhat cooler than
forecast. Assuming an initially cloudy morning with mixed clouds
and sun in the afternoon, highs should reach the mid-upper 70s,
except low 70s near the coast. Isolated showers are possible on
Wednesday mainly near the coast, although they should be light
owing to the shallow nature of the moisture and weak forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warming will begin in force as lingering boundary lifts back
north as warm front and winds come around to the south with deep
ridge beginning to build across the Southeast. Any low clouds
or light pcp Wed eve into early Thurs should break up. Could
see some afternoon cu, but not expecting any pcp with a very dry
mid to upper level column Thurs aftn onwards.

Rising H5 heights increasing above 590 dam by Thurs will rise
even further. The 850 temps will rise from near 11C to 17C by
Thurs. Overall, summer-like weather with the greatest warmup so
far this season, bringing high temps well into the 80s inland.
The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and
closer to the coast cooler, especially with a decent sea breeze
pushing inland in the afternoon. Dewpoints will rebound into the
60s with overnight lows in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid
airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep ridging up through the Southeast will slip slowly away
over the weekend into early next week as deep mid to upper
trough pushes a cold front east. Initially rising H5 heights
should peak on Fri and although heights begin to fall through
the weekend, the ridge holds on with continued subsidence and
dry air through the mid levels keeping any showers out of the
picture until at least later on Sun. This will lead to plenty of
sunshine and very warm temps Fri into the weekend with highs
well into the 80s inland and could see our first 90 degree day.
Temps at the beaches will be several degrees cooler as the water
temps were still in the 60s. Expect the cooler 70 degree temps
to spread inland with the sea breeze each aftn. The warm and
more humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the mid 60s
through Sun night.

A deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the
Carolinas on Sun. Expect increasing clouds and chc of pcp late
Sun into Sun night. Best shortwave energy will dampen out as it
approaches the eastern Carolinas, but should see shwrs and iso
storms come Mon aftn as front moves through local area. Temps
should only reach into the 70s on Mon with clouds and pcp and by
Mon night into Tues, much cooler air will move in behind front.
Overnight lows Mon night will be down below 50 most places and
highs on Tues only in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds will veer easterly overnight into Wednesday, bringing a
shallow layer of Atlantic moisture onshore. This could manifest
as early as this evening at KMYR and KCRE where a low to
moderate potential exists for MVFR visibility or MVFR/IFR ceilings
as early as 00z. A moderate to high potential exists after 06z
for MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop inland at KFLO, spreading north
and expanding eastward to include the remainder of the area
with moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings by daybreak
Wednesday. Daytime heating will lift the stratus into cumulus,
but cloud bases may struggle to reach 3000 feet meaning there is
a moderate potential for MVFR ceilings to persist through a
significant portion of the day.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday
evening before clearing to VFR on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...High pressure north of the forecast area
will maintain steady easterly winds tonight, which will
gradually veer to southeasterly on Wednesday. Seas in the 2-4 ft
range this afternoon increase tonight to 3-4 ft and remain in
that range through Wednesday. Seas will be driven by a
combination of southeasterly swells of 2-4 ft at 8-9 seconds and
easterly wind waves of 1-3 ft at 4-5 seconds.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Winds will transition from SE
to S Wed night into Thurs as warm front lifts north with a
persistent southerly flow setting up through the remainder of
the week. Winds will be in the 10 to 15 kt range and will shift
from S to a more SW direction Fri into the weekend with seas
maintaining a 3 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/ABW