450
FXUS62 KILM 052303
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
703 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will bring an end to the warm stretch of
weather beginning Thursday. The front itself will only bring
minor rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant updates with the 7 PM update. Routine aviation
discussion has been updated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wash, rinse, repeat... Surface high pressure north of the area and a
coastal trough just offshore will continue to maintain steady east
to northeast winds across the area through tomorrow. Aloft, a weak
mid-upper anticyclone over eastern NC is expected to slowly drift
southward to near or just east of the forecast area on Monday,
turning the mid-upper flow from southeasterly to southerly. An
impulse embedded in this flow may bring yet another round of
scattered nocturnal showers mainly to the SC coastal areas
overnight, where chance PoPs are located. At the jetstream level,
southwesterly flow continues to send high cirrus across the area and
this will continue through tonight before a ridge turns the upper
flow northwesterly on Monday, cutting off this source of high-level
moisture.

In terms of sensible weather, expect mixed clouds and sun to
continue with above-normal temps and isolated showers possible near
the coast as the large-scale pattern remains largely unchanged.
Highs in the low 80s are expected this afternoon, followed by lows
in the 60s. High temps on Monday should nudge another degree or two
warmer than today as heights rise slightly and high cirrus
abates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Healthy mid level ridge off of the MidAtlantic Coast with surface
high nearly collocated. Some operational guidance has QPF in the
resulting onshore low level flow but prefer the rain-free idea of
the NBM given the riding and dryness above the BL. Should some light
echoes make it ashore they will be in the form of non-measureable
sprinkles and likely only when mixing is minimized at night or
during early morning hours. Temperatures remain above climatology
especially at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wind veers and weakens on Wednesday as high to our north starts to
get shoved eastward by an approaching cold front. Wednesday highs
just about a carbon copy of Tuesday`s. Some vorticity centers stream
by the the north Wednesday ahead of the front and guidance has
trended slightly higher with rain chances, but they are still capped
in the lower end of the `chance` range. Cool and dry advection
Thursday will knock temperatures below climo each day while
nighttime lows remain above it by just a few degrees as breezy
conditions keep nights well mixed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light onshore flow continues tonight. For the Grand Strand
airports, a brief MVFR restriction will be possible through the
early morning hours. Any restrictions should be brief. A low
level jet overhead should limit chances for stratus or fog.
Similar day on Monday with VFR conditions and less gusts across
the area.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May
have some patchy fog during the early morning into the first
half of next week. Low rain chances return around midweek as a
cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday... Surface high pressure north of the area will
maintain steady east to east-northeast winds at 15-20 kts through
the period. Seas continue to hold mainly in the 3-5 ft range
although outer portions of the waters are seeing peak heights waver
around the SCA threshold of 6 feet. The primary driver of seas
continues to be a 7-8 sec swell out of the ESE while remnant swells
from Humberto and Imelda are keeping 1-2 ft at 12-13 sec out of the
ENE in the mix.

Monday night through Friday... Sprawling high pressure still
centered northeast of the area to start the period, with moderate
onshore flow resulting. The easterly swell will be abating so
conditions will be just shy of advisory levels. On Wednesday a cold
front approaching from the north and west will start pushing the
high eastward allowing for wind to drop off to light and
variable locally, though as always waves will be slower to
abate. Moot point though really as right behind the front winds
pick up substantially. Winds and seas both in advisory criteria
for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and rising astronomical tides due to the full moon
on Monday will bring a risk for minor tidal flooding with each
high tide cycle across the beaches and along the Cape Fear River
near downtown Wilmington at least through the first half of the
upcoming week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM