261
FXUS62 KILM 290534
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1234 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly high pressure over the area today will shift offshore
tonight into Sunday bringing slightly milder temperatures
before a cold front moves through Sunday night. Unsettled
weather is then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as
low pressure moves through the area. Dry high pressure will
return Wednesday through Thursday with another disturbance
bringing some low rain chances toward Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
One more day of unseasonably cold weather as wedge briefly develops
with surface high pressure moving across the north during the day.
Again, high temps today will struggle to reach 50F, though northeast
winds will be quite light due to influence of the high pressure.
Dewpoints will again be in the teens today, with scattered cirrus
across the area through the afternoon. High pressure shifts off the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, allowing return flow to develop. This
will help PWATs increase from 0.25" during the day to 0.8" tonight.
Will see stratocumulus clouds move onshore tonight in the low-level
ESE flow, and could see a few spotty, very light, showers develop
due to shallow isentropic light. Lows tonight around freezing,
though could see a couple of degrees colder where there are clearer
skies and couple degrees warmer where there are more clouds
overnight..

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*Hazards: None
*Rain Chances: Low thru Mon; Moderate Mon night
*Temps: Near to above normal thru Sun night; Below normal Mon; Near
normal Mon night
*Confidence: High thru Mon; Moderate to High Mon night

Details: Inland high pressure and a trough along the coast will be
shifting offshore Sun ahead of a cold front which should move
through Sun night followed by another cooler shot of air as high
pressure returns from the north. Limited moisture/forcing will keep
rain chances/amounts low thru Mon with the best chances likely Sun
night. However, rain chances will increase more substantially Mon
night as another coastal trough begins developing and
moisture/forcing increase ahead of another storm system approaching
from the west. Could even see a few thunderstorms toward daybreak
Tue, mainly offshore, as the coastal warm front tries to push
inland. Rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch are likely by
daybreak Tue, with several tenths of an inch possible, especially
across inland portions of SC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*Hazards: None, although there is a non-zero risk for a severe storm
Tue
*Rain Chances: High into Tue night; Very low to None Wed thru Thu
night; Low Thu night/Fri
*Temps: Near (coast) to below (inland) normal Tue; below normal
Tue night thru Fri
*Confidence: Moderate thru Tue night; Moderate to High Wed thru Thu;
Moderate Thu night/Fri

Details: Strengthening low pressure inland Tue will be moving NE
thru the day although the exact track is a bit uncertain. This will
largely determine how much warmer and slightly more unstable air can
move inland which will determine if there is any chance at all of
a severe storm. At this point chances still appear very low
despite the strong deep layer shear due to the fact that warmer
air well offshore will likely be cooled somewhat over the
chillier shelf waters closer to the coast. Once the low moves by
to the north the trailing cold front will move through later
Tue/Tue night bringing colder/drier air back to the area which
will remain due to high pressure through at least Thu. May see
light rain again as early as late Thu night as moisture begins
to stream eastward ahead of another storm system with slightly
better chances on Fri, although still some decent uncertainty
this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. Scattered cirrus through this afternoon. Stratocu cloud deck
around 4-5 kft will move onshore tonight as low level flow turns
east-southeasterly. Light winds out of the N-NE prevail throughout
TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR until early next week. Flight
restrictions possible the first part of the upcoming week as a
coastal trough/warm front lifts north across the area, followed by a
cold frontal passage. Widespread showers and isolated tstms are
expected with this system.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure wedge inland will maintain
northeasterly winds over the local coastal waters during the day
today, sustained 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 2-3 ft,
combination of wind chop and 1 ft ESE swell. High pressure shifts
off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, veering the local winds to
easterlies tonight while slightly weakening. Seas slightly lower to
2 ft tonight. Could see a few light showers move across the waters
tonight.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Northeasterly winds drop below 10
kts and gradually veer to the south throughout the day Sunday ahead
of a cold front, with seas holding steady at 1-2 ft. Front moves
through Sunday night before stalling offshore of the coastal waters
by Monday. Winds veer back to the northeast by Monday, and the
pressure gradient quickly increases, with gusts up to 20 kts by the
afternoon, and seas up to 2-4 ft. Strong low pressure system ejects
out of the Gulf and moves through Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday,
veering the winds again to the SSW. Winds and seas easily push into
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Depending on the track of the low,
the forecast may trend towards gale force gusts, but that remains to
be seen. Low exits the area Tuesday night, and winds veer to the NNE
and fall to 10-15 kts throughout the day Wednesday. Seas come back
down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO