Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
211 FXUS62 KILM 171747 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1247 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Departing high pressure will lead to warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won`t arrive until this weekend with an approaching disturbance. Drier weather is expected behind the disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Below normal tonight; near normal Tue *Confidence: High, except Mod to High regarding temps tonight Details: High pressure centered to the northwest will shift east and become situated more over the area tonight before continuing to move offshore tomorrow. Some mid/high clouds will move through overnight but otherwise conditions should be pretty good for radiational cooling so we leaned toward the cooler guidance, especially given what happened last night. Otherwise, below normal temps tonight in the mid to upper 30s most locales away from the warmer coastal areas and pretty close to normal highs on Tue generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High will move off to our northeast ahead of a shortwave/weak cold front, SW winds bringing above normal temperatures and increasing cloudiness through the period. The front should move through sometime Thursday but little change outside of lighter winds. Highs in the 70s lows near 50, warmer at the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An approaching low from will lead to increasing clouds and rain chances into the end of the week and weekend. This will lead to lower temperatures but still above normal. The shortwave aloft should move through sometime Saturday with drying towards the end of the period behind it. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the 18Z/17 TAF period. Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR prevailing, although there is a very low risk for MVFR/IFR restrictions Wed night into Thu morning behind a weak cold front. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...High confidence with no significant marine concerns. High pressure will build in through tonight before pushing offshore tomorrow allowing northerly winds to shift onshore with seas falling to 1 ft or less. Tuesday Night through Saturday...High pressure moves off to the north ahead of a cold front with SW winds ~10 kts overnight into Wednesday, the front moving through early Thursday. High pressure will then build in again before it`s sandwiched between incoming low pressure, the increased PG bringing SW winds ~15-20 kts. Small Craft conditions are not expected at this time. Seas will be ~1-3 ft with some 4 footers possible into Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/LEW