212
FXUS62 KILM 061800
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
100 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through Monday as waves of low
pressure develop along stalled front offshore. Dry and cold high
pressure will build over the area into Tuesday. Temperatures
return to normal midweek as high pressure shifts off the coast.
Rain chances increase Friday ahead of a cold front, with more
cold air by next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold and soaking rain covers almost our entire forecast area this
afternoon. An approaching upper level disturbance currently crossing
the southern Appalachians has backed the mid level flow southerly
enough to bring Gulf moisture back across the Carolinas. For those
who like to view this process in isentropic coordinates, the 300K
and 305K surfaces show sustained moisture and ascent continuing
through 4-5 PM inland and 6-7 PM along the coast before precipitation
tapers off. Dry conditions are then expected overnight.

The atmosphere will dry out later this evening above 1000-2000 feet
AGL which may lead to a brief period of partial clearing, however
given light winds and a very moist boundary layer it`s likely areas
of fog, perhaps even dense fog, will develop overnight. The highest
probability of dense fog will exist from Elizabethtown and Whiteville
westward and southwestward across the Pee Dee region. Lows should
fall into the lower to middle 30s for most areas, a little warmer
along the coast from Southport through Myrtle Beach.

Given low sun angles this time of year fog may be slow to burn off
Sunday morning, perhaps taking until 11 AM to lift. A canopy of high
clouds aloft should filter the sun enough to only allow temps to
reach the lower to middle 50s, warmer than we`ve seen the last
couple of days but still below normal. Our long range forecast
suggests it may take until next Thursday before temperatures even
approach normal values again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broader, longer-wave (not really a classical longwave) trough starts
to sweep through Appalachia Sunday night, pushing offshore of the
Outer Banks by Tuesday morning. Ahead and under of this longer-wave
trough, smaller shortwaves spin off of it and funnel right along the
CSRA, Lowcountry, Pee Dee, and Cape Fear regions. This energy helps
push forth a cold front across the area Sunday night through Monday.
Simultaneously, we have another frontal boundary well offshore that
continues to spawn surface low pressure along it.

After a lull most of Sunday night, rain chances increase modestly
for Monday. Should see mostly cloud cover as opposed to rain though,
as there is much more dry air intrusion at this point that tempers
moisture overrunning. Rain chances die off fast from west to east
late Monday as the upper energy pushes offshore.

Lows Sunday night in the mid-to-upper 30s. Highs Monday have trouble
reaching 50 degrees inland, while the coastal areas may reach the
lower 50s. Much colder air sets in Monday night, with lows in the
mid-to-upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure quickly dips in and keeps the area chilly and dry at
first. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 40s on Tuesday, with lows
Tuesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Air mass modification quickly warms things up, with highs Wednesday
shooting up into the upper 50s to near 60, some 10-12 degrees warmer
than the day before. A weak back door front moves through Wednesday
night into Thursday, but doesn`t change much of the picture. A
slightly more potent frontal system looks to move through Thursday
night through Friday, but only brings a slight chance of rain with
it. Cold air settles in behind this front, leading to another chilly
day by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread IFR ceilings remain in place across the eastern Carolinas
and should persist through at least this evening. We`ll begin to
lose moisture above 1000-2000 feet AGL overnight which may lead to
low ceilings scattering out briefly. But given anticipated light
winds it won`t be long afterward that areas of fog, including some
dense fog and LIFR ceilings, will develop and persist through 14-16z
on Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Nocturnal low clouds and fog have a high chance
to develop again Sunday night. Another wave of low pressure passing
by the Carolina coast has a moderate potential to bring MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibility with rain again on Monday. Conditions should
clear to VFR Monday night and remain VFR through Thursday in a drier
arctic airmass.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...The surface cold front that had moved as close as
30 miles to shore yesterday afternoon is now hundreds of miles out
to sea. Today`s rain is being produced by an upper level disturbance
approaching from the west. This disturbance should move out to sea
this evening, ending the rain. Westerly winds 10 knots or less
should veer northerly overnight, then northeasterly on Sunday.
Combined seas of 2-3 feet (mainly in a 10 second easterly swell)
should subside to 1-2 feet Sunday.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Gradient winds out of the NNE pick
up ahead of a frontal system Sunday night into Monday, with seas
quickly following. Still looking at Small Craft Advisory conditions
Monday afternoon through midday or early afternoon Tuesday. From
there, front pushes further offshore, allowing the gradient to
relax. Winds back to the northwest late Tuesday, continuing to back
towards the west by Wednesday morning. Seas drop to 2-3 ft. Gradient
winds on the rise yet again by early Wednesday afternoon ahead of
another cold front. Winds stay out of the west or southwest through
Thursday, with sustained winds at 15-20 kts and occasional gusts up
to 25 kts. Seas increase slightly to 3-4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/IGB