244
FXUS62 KILM 022354
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
754 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north tonight with unseasonable warmth
arriving Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of
rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying a cold front.
Much cooler and drier air will follow on Tuesday into midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Exceptionally high dewpoints for early April are streaming
onshore across the eastern Carolinas. The SPC sounding
climatology webpage shows upper 60s dewpoints are among the
highest values on record for this time of year in Charleston
and mid 60s are only a degree or two below daily maxes at
Morehead City. Isolated convective showers across eastern South
Carolina developing from surface-based instability should fade
over over the next couple of hours, however extensive low level
moisture should keep plenty of low clouds around through the
night, especially inland.

No changes have been made to forecast lows, 65 to 68 degrees,
almost 20 degrees above normal and near the warmest observed
for April 3 at our four main climate sites.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure centered over New England will shift eastward through
tonight, supporting continued southeasterly flow. As a stalled front
lifts back northward tonight, expect winds to continue veering and
end up at southerly before daybreak. As this occurs, mid-level
height rises will begin in earnest as an anomalously strong upper
high builds over the Atlantic Ocean just north of The Bahamas. This
will translate into early-summer-like warmth, with plenty of stratus
overhead resulting in overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. After
starting out humid and mostly cloudy, sunshine will help to break
the up the clouds by midday and boost daytime highs on Thursday into
the mid-upper 80s inland and low 80s nearer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather over the
eastern Carolinas Thurs night through the weekend. Deep
southerly flow around the center of the ridge over the waters to
our east will provide a continuous flow of warm and moist air
for several days. This will produce dewpoints into the 60s.
Anomalously high H5 heights and 850 temps will lead to temps
well into the 80s inland. Potential for our first 90 degree day
in spots inland, especially in the Pee Dee region. The cooler
ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the
coast several degrees lower, especially with a decent sea
breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass.

May see some morning fog. Soundings showing some indication of
shallow moisture stuck under subsidence inversion, mainly early
morning, but the deep dry column above should mix down and provide
plenty of sunshine through much of the day. Intermittent sea
fog may affect coastal locales as very warm and moist air flows
over the cool shelf waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the
Carolinas on Sun. Moisture will increase through the column in a
deep S-SW flow bringing pcp water values from an inch or less
previous days up to 1.8 inches into the I-95 corridor by Sun
evening. As moisture through the column increases into Sun eve,
do see some increasing CAPE inland, but it remains elevated.
Overall, should see increasing clouds and chc of shwrs and iso
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Sun into Monday.

Temps should only reach into the 70s on Mon due to clouds and
pcp and by Mon night into Tues, much cooler air will move in
behind front. Overnight lows Mon night will be down below 50
most places and highs on Tues only in the 60s. Overall, cooler
and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front into
midweek with pcp water values dropping down to a half inch by
Tues morning and dropping further into Wed. Temps on Wed may
only reach the lower 60s and may even see potential for frost
Wed night as temps drop below 40 most places inland.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Veering low level winds will maintain tropical humidity across
the eastern Carolinas through the night and into Thursday. We
have high confidence MVFR or lower ceilings will develop
affecting KFLO and KLBT later this evening. Along the coast
it`s tricker as the best chances for MVFR or lower conditions
may occur before midnight as winds maintain a southeasterly
direction. Once wind directions veer southerly overnight the
probability of sustained MVFR conditions may decrease near the
coast, especially at the KMYR and KCRE airports. At KILM there
is a moderate probability of MVFR ceilings developing overnight,
with low confidence on the timing of conditions improving to
VFR again on Thursday.

Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early
morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning from
Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A
cold front approaching from the west will likely bring
additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...High pressure well north of the waters will
maintain southeasterly winds into tonight. As a stalled front lifts
back northward overnight, expect winds to veer to southerly by the
end of the night and remain southerly through Thursday. Seas in the
2-4 ft range this afternoon and evening increase to 3-5 ft tonight
before subsiding slightly on Thursday. Waves will be dominated by
continued southeasterly swells with a period around 8 sec and
accentuated by wind waves out of the south.

Thursday night through Monday...High pressure off shore will
maintain a persistent S-SW flow through the weekend and up
until a cold front moves through on Mon night. The winds will
become gusty in decent sea breeze each afternoon near shore but
will increase across the area up to 15 to 20 kts with higher
gusts Sat night into Sun as gradient tightens as cold front
approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW winds to veer to the W
behind front heading into Tues morning.

Seas will remain in the 3 to 4 ft range over most waters through
Sat but will build heading into Sun in increasing southerly
push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely
beginning late Sun and should last into Mon night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...ABW/31
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/ABW