647
FXUS62 KILM 250747
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
247 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore, bringing warming
temperatures early this week. A weak cold front will move
through late Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by slightly
cooler and drier high pressure Wednesday. A second, stronger
cold front will bring unsettled weather Thursday followed by
arctic high pressure for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm air advection around offshore ridge to the southeast will allow
temps to reach around 72F this afternoon with mostly clear skies.
High clouds will be moving in from the west later today into tonight
as a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and a cold front
approaches the area. Dewpoints will also be on the rise today and
tonight ahead of the front, which is forecasted to be across
central Carolinas by Tuesday morning. Lows tonight in the low
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weakly forced cold front quickly moves across the forecast area Tue
afternoon. Not a lot of moisture with it, but there does appear to
be a narrow sliver of deeper moisture and the front is arriving
during peak heating. Normally would not be very excited about such a
system. Fronts like this tend to end up passing dry with the best
dynamics displayed well north. However, precipitable water does
approach the 90th percentile and temperatures will be almost 10
degrees above normal. Interestingly the GFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles all
have the 24 hour probability of 0.01" north of 70% Tue. Did tweak
pop up a bit Tue afternoon with a mix of slight chance and low
chance across the forecast area, highest across NC. Not expecting
much in the way of rainfall, but a few hundredths seem plausible in
some areas.

Cooler and drier air mass follows the front with lows dipping close
to climo Tue night. Not much wind behind the front, given the
limited cold advection. Humidity will probably drop down near 35% in
the afternoon, especially away from the coast, but lack of wind will
keep this from being an issue. Temperatures continue to run above
climo with highs 5-10 above and lows 10-15 above with temps holding
steady or increasing after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Confidence is somewhat limited late in the week as the flow aloft
transitions from flat to more amplified. A southern stream shortwave
tries phasing with a 5h low over southeastern Canada Thu into Fri.
The interaction of these 2 features will have a direct influence on
how much the flow aloft amplifies. The amount of amplification will
determine the strength of cold advection Thu night into Fri. The
more recent runs of the operational medium range guidance have been
walking back on the strength of the amplification a bit with the
shortwave on Thu. However, a second shortwave Sun appears stronger
and will have the potential to usher in an even cooler air mass for
the start of next week. Interestingly the ensembles show less change
with the strength of the first shortwave, but now have the second
being a little stronger.

Rain seems like a given at some point Thu into Fri. Wedge should be
broken by Thu morning with strong southerly flow over the entire
forecast area. The weak nature of the wedge and the surface low
emerging from the ArkLaTex region Wed are both indicators of the
wedge breaking. Entire forecast area will be in the warm sector with
forecast soundings showing precipitable water over 1.5 inches and a
southerly low level jet 35-40 kt. Forecast soundings do show a
shallow stable layer above the surface Thu which may keep convection
elevated and isolate the surface front any stronger winds aloft. It
will be breezy Thu given the gradient, but severe weather seems
unlikely at this point.

Strong warm advection Thu should push temperatures across the
entire forecast area above climo. The cold advection begins Thu
night, but cold air may not arrive in time to knock lows Fri
morning below climo, but Fri through Sun will be marked by
temperatures below to well below climo with potential for
temperatures below freezing for much of the area Fri and Sat
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. May see brief visibility reductions from ground fog, but
with lingering wind and very shallow moisture layer at the
surface it will be difficult for any fog to persist. Light
southwest winds prevail through TAF period, with high clouds
moving in from the west late today into tonight.

Extended Outlook...Visibility restrictions from rain and
lowered ceilings are expected Wednesday night as well as on
Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
West winds around 10 kts this morning turn southwesterly this
afternoon around offshore high pressure, increasing in speed
into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds around
15 kts with gusts to 20 kts forecasted by Tuesday morning. Seas
around 2 feet today and tonight, combination of SW wind wave
and a 1 ft E swell.

Tuesday through Friday...
The waters will be visited by 2 cold fronts this week. The
first, on Tue will bring a wind shift and a slight bump in wind
speeds. Conditions will not warrant an advisory, but the
development of a northerly wind wave 2-3 ft at 2-3 seconds later
Tue into Tue night will create some rough conditions. Gradient
relaxes and winds/seas decrease Wed into Thu. The second of the
2 fronts arrives later Thu preceded by southwest winds 15-20 kt
with gusts near 30 mph. Similar speeds expected with the
offshore flow once the front pushes east, later Thu night or
early Fri. Offshore flow weakens during Fri as the cold
advection eases up which should allow for the expiration of any
headlines from Thu by Fri afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO/31
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO