081
FXUS62 KILM 260229
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1029 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches Saturday with an increase in showers
and thunderstorms during the day. High pressure will build in
behind the front Sunday into early next week with dry
conditions. Above normal temperatures expected beginning
Tuesday, with rain chances return late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The forecast remains stable at this late hour thus only minor
changes. The area/line of convection expected to approach the
western zones in a few hours albeit in a fading state is now
taking shape in northern Georgia/upstate South Carolina.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thus far convection has struggled to develop. Not that shocking
given the marginal environment and lack of strong
triggers/convergence. Sea breeze has tried to generate some
deeper convection, but what has developed has had trouble
maintaining itself. Mid-level lapse rates are barely -6 C/km and
there is no support aloft. If anything there is a bit of weak
subsidence in the wake of a weak shortwave moving across eastern
NC. This has really limited the potential for deeper updrafts
despite SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Still think there will be some
late afternoon and evening convection as the influence of the
shortwave weakens a but, but the bulk of the region will remain
dry heading into tonight.

Pre-frontal trough approaches from the west after midnight with
scattered convection ahead of it. Any activity will be
weakening given decreasing instability. However, there does
appear to be some weak PVA ahead of another weak shortwave.
Heights will be falling as the 5h trough axis approaches and
there is a little bit of divergence aloft ahead of the trough
axis. Not expecting a lot in the way of coverage, but occasional
nocturnal showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be
possible across the forecast area overnight into early Sat
morning. The biggest hurdle will be mid- level dry air and
precipitable water right around climatology. Varying amounts of
cloud cover and boundary layer mixing will keep lows 7-10
degrees above normal in most areas.

Remains of the pre-frontal trough in the area Sat ahead of the
more defined cold front expected late Sat. The front lags the 5h
trough axis a bit with the prefrontal trough driving much of
Sat`s convection. Early round of showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm possible will be winding down during the late
morning hours Sat, but think better chances will come in the
afternoon. Height falls associated with the trough axis and
diurnal heating will lead to decent mid-level lapse rates and
moisture increases Sat with pwat rising above the 90th
percentile. Expect to see good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms for much of the forecast area. Far western areas
may get enough mid-level dry air/post trough axis subsidence in
the afternoon to limit or prevent a second round, but east of
the I-95 corridor chances are better ahead of the cold front.
Although the threat is limited cannot rule out an isolated
severe storm with damaging wind gusts, if there is enough time
to reset after the weaker, more sporadic morning activity.
Temperatures above normal Sat ahead of the slow moving cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering storms will diminish quickly after sundown Saturday
with loss of heating and NVA aloft. May see a few isolated
showers early in the night before cold front moves across the
area after midnight. Low temps will drop into the upper 50s/low
60s by Sunday morning. Dry weather returns Sunday as mid level
ridge begins to build over the Southeast and surface high
pressure ridges down from the north. Highs in the mid to upper
70s Sunday afternoon with plenty of high clouds. Sunday night
will be the coolest night of the forecast period with lows in
the low 50s across NE SC and upper 40s/50 across SE NC. If skies
clear out more than currently forecasted, low 40s may be
possible in traditional cold spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather remains in the forecast for the start of the work
week thanks to mid level ridge over the area providing dry air
and plenty of subsidence. Surface high pressure overhead Monday
shifts offshore Tuesday, combining with increasing 850mb temps
to kick off a warming trend beginning Tuesday. Near normal temps
Monday rise to near 90F Wednesday, with well above normal temps
possibly lingering through the end of the week. A front is
progged to move across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday, stalling
north of our area. Have maintained slight pops across northern
counties of CWA for Wednesday afternoon/evening, but lingering
mid level dry air and subsidence will make it difficult for
anything to development. Rain chances look a bit better on
Thursday, and even more so on Friday, as mid level ridge moves
off the coast and PWATs increase to ~1.5", with the next front
approaching the area late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall VFR conditions are expected through the period with a
couple of caveats. First there could be a brief period of MVFR
visibilities in CRE later this evening and a brief period of
MVFR ceilings in FLO early Saturday. The next complication is
convection for Saturday. With uncertainty PROB 30 groups will
suffice with a wider time range along the coast per sea breeze
and or pre frontal trough interactions while inland should see
mainly later activity if at all associated with the actual
front.

Extended Outlook...Moderate confidence in brief MVFR/IFR
Saturday afternoon and evening associated with showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...South to southwest flow continues across the
waters through Sat with Bermuda High offshore and slow moving
cold front approaching from the west. Gradient becomes a little
more defined Sat with speeds increasing from around 10 kt
overnight to a solid 15 kt with potential for 15-20 kt later
Sat. No expectation of any headlines, but the increase in winds
and seas later Sat will start to make conditions less
"friendly". Seas 2-3 ft through tonight will build to 3-4 ft
later Sat with a southerly wind wave(2-3 ft at 4 sec) becoming
dominant later in the day.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Southwest winds early
Saturday night will turn northerly by Sunday morning as a cold
front moves across the coastal waters. Wind speeds will be
around 15-20 kt for a brief period Sunday morning. North-
northeast winds prevail through midday Monday before onshore
flow develops as high pressure moves across to the north. South-
southwest winds dominates midday Tuesday through late week as
high pressure shifts offshore. Seas 3-4 ft Saturday night and
Sunday, mix of SE swell and S then N wind wave, lowers to 2-3 ft
for Sunday night through Wednesday, primarily as an E swell
with wind wave mixed in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...III/VAO