144
FXUS62 KILM 071957
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
357 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the eastern Carolinas
through this evening ahead of a cold front that will move offshore
tonight. Cooler and drier weather will develop Tuesday and Wednesday
as high pressure moves by to our north. The next frontal system will
reach the Carolinas Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid-level shortwave trough approaching from the west will
drive a surface cold front through the region tonight, with
showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front. Strong
low-level flow has resulted in a gusty day across the region and
these strong winds will lend themselves to the potential for
isolated severe/damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms,
especially where a line of storms resembles a bow shape. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 02Z to account for
this threat. Otherwise, expect scattered to numerous showers in
the pre-frontal band with a good soaking rain expected for most
areas. Generally, 0.25-0.75" is expected (highest inland, lowest
near the coast), although some localized stripes of heavier
rainfall are possible where thunderstorms track, and these can
lead to totals in the 1-2" range through tonight.

The cold front will push through tonight with winds turning
westerly behind it and rain coming to an end behind it as well.
A few hours of westerly winds are expected before a surge of
cold advection arrives on northwesterly winds late in the night.
Low clouds should gradually dry out late in the night into
tomorrow morning from northwest to southeast, but low-level
moisture may linger for a few hours after sunrise near the
coast. Expect low temps to depend almost exclusively on how
strong the cold advection is, with generally low 50s expected
inland and mid-50s near the coast.

On Tuesday, north-northwesterly winds will continue to drive
cool air into the region, limiting highs to the mid-upper 60s
despite plenty of sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night will be the coldest night of the week with strong CAA
in the low levels. Current forecast has upper 30s across northern
counties in our CWA, and low 40s to the south. Lingering boundary
layer winds will thankfully prevent temps from radiating out too
much, and hinder frost formation. That said, sheltered locations,
and traditional cold spots in parts of Pender and Bladen counties,
could see patchy frost Wednesday morning and a frost advisory may be
issued tonight.

High pressure ridging from the north Wednesday into Wednesday night
will maintain below normal temps for midweek. Clear skies with high
temps in the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will
bring good radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night, though
with a bit of airmass warming lows are expected to stay in the low
to mid 40s (possibly upper 30s in traditional cold spots like Holly
Shelter).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore Thursday, bringing return flow and
near normal temps in the mid 70s. An upper trough will dig down into
the Mississippi Valley Thursday night and, slowly, move across the
Carolinas Friday into Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
track over the Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday, with attending
cold front moving through late Friday. Combination of PVA and
approaching front will increase rain chances Thursday night through
Friday, with slight thunder included Friday afternoon due to some
cooling in the mid-levels. Have included low pops for Saturday as
PVA associated with center of upper trough moves through, but
confidence is low given the decreased moisture behind Friday`s
front. Otherwise cooler and drier weather in store for next weekend
before we warm up again heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions exist at all TAF sites presently and this should
remain the case near the coast through this afternoon. Inland
terminals are getting nearer to a pre-frontal band of
convection and this will make for changeable, but overall,
deteriorating conditions, which will continue into tonight.
Mainly MVFR cigs and vis are expected as this band of convection
moves through the terminals, but brief periods of IFR vis are
possible if a heavy shower or storm impacts a terminal directly.
Otherwise, expect MVFR restrictions to abate from west to east
behind the cold front later tonight with VFR returning by
daybreak at the coast and continuing through the end of the
period.

Extended Outlook... VFR through Thursday. Restrictions may
return Friday due to an approaching frontal system.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...
Breezy southwest winds will continue through this evening before
veering to westerly as a cold front sweeps through the waters
overnight. Winds will veer further to north-northwesterly late
in the night as cold advection arrives, although speeds will be
on the decrease soon after this shift occurs due to a loosening
pressure gradient. Thus, the Small Craft Advisory is set to
expire at 6am as gusts decrease below 25 kts across all zones.
Expect north-northwest winds to continue through the remainder
of the day with speeds falling to around 10 kts by late in the
afternoon.

Seas peak around 5-7 ft this evening before gradually falling
through the night and ending up in the 2-4 ft range during the
afternoon tomorrow.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...North-northeast
winds will prevail over the local coastal waters Tuesday night
into Wednesday as high pressure wedge builds inland, with wind
speeds peaking early Wednesday around 20 kts. Seas 3-4 ft
Tuesday night through Wednesday, primarily from NNE wind wave
and a weakening SE swell. High pressure shifts offshore
Wednesday night into Thursday, lowering wind speeds, turning
flow to onshore, and lowering seas to 2-3 ft. Cold front
approaches from the west late Friday, increasing southerly flow
ahead of it for Thursday night into Friday, though currently
forecasted to remain below advisory criteria. Seas build to
around 4 feet during the day Friday from combination of S wind
wave and E swell. Rain chances increase late Friday with a
chance of thunder over the waters. Offshore flow prevails
heading into next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
the Brunswick County beaches and the northern Horry County
beaches due to 7-8 second south swell increasing throughout the
day. We`re also raising a High Surf Advisory for Brunswick
County where the potential for 6 foot surf will develop.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...VAO/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...