640
FXUS62 KILM 020621
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
221 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could
lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday
into Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry high pressure will continue to extend down from the north while
weak low pressure well offshore will exit farther off to the east
through today. This will allow gradient flow to relax with NE winds
mainly in the 5 to 10 mph range, but may see a few higher gusts
mixing down through the afternoon. Column looks drier than yesterday
with the possibility of few cu and or higher clouds mixing with
plenty of sunshine. Pcp water values will be down near 1.25 inches
or less inland. Any stray showers should remain offshore. Highs will
be in the lower 80s once again and lows near 60, cooler inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak, elongated surface ridge axis to the northwest on Wed will
shift offshore by Thu, resulting in the development of weak return
flow. Temperatures below normal Wed bump back up near normal Thu in
response to the return flow. Low level moisture also starts to
increase, but the air mass remains on the dry side. Precipitable
water is around 75% of normal Wed struggle to even get back near
normal on Thu. Although there is broad troughing in the mid-levels,
there isn`t much in the way of forcing, either surface or aloft,
which will keep rain chances through Thu night close to zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Longwave 5h trough remains over the East Coast through the weekend
before the pattern aloft starts to become more progressive. Despite
the trough, the region should stay fairly dry with temperatures
above normal Fri and Sat. A weak, dry front moves into the area Fri,
but barely moves the needle as far as sensible weather goes. A
somewhat stronger front moves into the area Sun, accompanied by more
significant moisture return. The best dynamics pass well north of
the area Sun, but there should be enough surface based instability
which, coupled with the precipitable water around 2", should
generate some diurnal convection. Mid-level lapse rates don`t look
all that impressive, which may keep coverage limited. Front lingers
in the area Mon with the 5h troughing lifting out as 5h ridge starts
to build over the western Atlantic. The building ridge would tend to
limit rain chances despite increased low level moisture and the
front in the area. Confidence early next week is low given the
uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the mid-level
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue with dry high pressure extending in
from the north and weak low pressure over the Atlantic moving
farther away and weakening further. This will allow gradient to
begin to relax with winds mainly in the 5 to 10 kt range with a few
higher gusts in the aftn. Column looks very dry with mainly a
sprinkling of cu this aftn between 4 to 6kt ft with not much in the
way of cirrus.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances could return Saturday with
intermittent restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Small Craft conditions should end from SW to NE through the
pre-dawn hours as high pressure extends down from the north and
low offshore weakens and moves farther away. This will allow NE
winds to subside and seas to follow. NE winds will start to drop
to 15 to 20 kts through today, with a some higher gusts
remaining. A few lingering 6 fters will drop to 3 to 5 ft early
today and be down to 2 to 4 ft by tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Light northeast flow Wed transitions to southerly Thu as weak
ridge axis shifts offshore. Gradient remains more or less
unchanged with southerly flow prevailing through the weekend.
Once the southerly flow sets up the sea breeze will become a
little more defined, especially Fri and Sat with speeds
increasing to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft through the
end of the week, first as a mix of an easterly and a
southeasterly swell. The swells linger through the end of the
week, but a south to southwest wind wave will develop late in
the week..

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Strong Longshore Current:

Strong northeast winds will result in a moderate to strong
longshore north to south current along East and Southeast
facing beaches today. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
for the beaches of Pender, New Hanover, Horry (Myrtle Beach
south) and Georgetown Counties.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM