202
FXUS62 KILM 251005
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
605 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The dense fog looks to be sticking to the N/NE. For this
reason, letting the SPS for patchy dense fog go down at 5am.

Otherwise, aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Drier Tuesday with only isolated thunderstorms possible in
  the southern Grand Strand region.

- 2) Rain chances increase late tonight and Wednesday, and
  especially Thursday through Saturday, as an old frontal
  boundary surges through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier Tuesday with only isolated thunderstorms
possible in the southern Grand Strand region.

Latest surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary snaking
through SC Lowcountry, exiting offshore of Georgetown County,
and pushing into the Outer Banks. While storms offshore have
been raging all night with an endless supply of lightning,
weather has been calm over land. Areas of dense fog have
developed in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties, and is trying
to drop down into Columbus, Brunswick, and New Hanover Counties
at times. No Dense Fog Advisory at the moment, but this will
need monitoring over the next few hours. The morning commute
could be a bit tricky in these areas. Slow down and use your low
beam headlights!

Majority of the forecast area is behind the frontal boundary,
allowing for drier air to seep in. Outside of some high cirrus
and diurnal cumulus, there shouldn`t be much in the way of
showers and thunderstorms today. The southern parts of the Grand
Strand stand the best chance, since those areas are closest to
the frontal boundary. Highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
this afternoon.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase late tonight and
Wednesday, and especially Thursday through Saturday, as an old
frontal boundary surges through the area.

The weak frontal boundary will slowly start to wobble back inland
late tonight and Wednesday. This low-level lift will work with
some shortwave energy to provide more chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms that start at the coast, and gradually
push inland.

By Thursday, the best forcing comes into play, aided by a
deepening trough in the Southeast that surges Gulf moisture into
the Carolinas from SW flow. Rain chances become much more
organized across the area Thursday through Saturday. Convective
processes might allow for some areas to score a couple of inches
of rain, which will continue to hammer away at the drought.
Ridging from the west starts pushing in Sunday and Monday,
cutting off the rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the daytime 12Z TAF period. Have added a
TEMPO for if IFR CIGs/VSBYs creep down from the NE to KILM
within the first hour of the TAF period, but this may not come
to pass. Mostly dry through the day with an afternoon sea breeze
hitting the Myrtles ~17Z and ~20Z for KILM. A stalled front
offshore could lead to showers/storms coming onshore overnight,
impacting coastal terminals. Meanwhile, inland terminals may fog
up.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and
stratus possible each morning. The next system is due to come
in sometime Thursday, creating wet and stormy weather through
Saturday. Plenty of flight restrictions to come.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...A weak front over the waters creates a
variable wind that blows at a gentle to moderate breeze. Seas
continue to improve from 2-3 ft down to 1-2 ft by midday
Wednesday. From there, the front pushes back inland again, and
SE onshore flow picks up Wednesday afternoon, veering to the SW
Wednesday night through Saturday. Gradient winds pick up
Thursday and Friday, but never get higher than a moderate
breeze. This allows seas to pick up to 3-4 ft, but improve back
towards 2 ft by Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB