401
FXUS62 KILM 221035
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall south of the area today, maintaining
shower chances for northeastern South Carolina and mostly dry
weather over southeastern North Carolina. A weak area of low
pressure may develop offshore this weekend, leading to increased
shower chances near the coast. Drier and cooler weather arrives
behind a cold front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and storms continue to drift southward with a cold front
early this morning. Moisture, just south of the Pee Dee, will
continue to interact with the boundary today. In addition to the
pooling moisture, a weak upper low is expected to develop which will
prolong lift and instability through this evening. Slow storm
motions could produce some localized flooding for portions of
Williamsburg and Georgetown counties this afternoon. Dry air
advection behind the front in southeastern NC will keep most areas
dry north of the state line.

Early stratus over southeastern NC and upper level cloud cover will
keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s today. Dew points in the 60s
across northern part of the area should make it feel quite nice.
Cloudy for most areas tonight with periodic showers in SC. A weak
area of low pressure begins to develop late tonight which could
produce an unsettled weekend for area beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Old frontal boundary offshore starts to creep closer to the coast
Saturday, with more moisture pushing in from the Atlantic. A weak
low pressure slowly forms near the GA/FL coast throughout the day,
and by proximity, northeast SC will receive more of that moisture
feed. As a result, we`ll see a bit of a moisture gradient across the
area, with a greater chance of scattered showers and storms forming
in northeast SC, particularly in the Grand Strand area. Areas in
southeast NC look to remain a bit drier. Clouds and rain keep highs
in the lower 80s in northeast SC on Saturday, edging slightly
closer to the mid 80s in southeast NC.

The weak low will continue to track northeastward up the coastline,
or just offshore from it. Rain chances will gradually shift to favor
more of the southeast NC coastal areas Saturday night through
Sunday. Lows Saturday night range from the upper 60s in the far
inland areas to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs Sunday carry a
similar gradient with the clouds and rain, but with reversed
locations.

The weak low will continue to push northeastward towards the Outer
Banks and offshore Sunday night, which decreases the rain chances.
Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Meanwhile, lingering long period swells from Erin still look to
stick around throughout the weekend, continuing the rip current
threat at the beaches, particularly north of Cape Fear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front sweeps through the area from west to east on Monday,
carrying little forcing with it. Only modest shower and thunderstorm
chances remain with this system, perhaps slightly more enhanced
closer to the coast with the seabreeze. Pre-frontal warming
pushes highs into the upper 80s.

Front pushes offshore Monday night, where much cooler, drier air
starts to sink in. Dewpoints and temperatures both drop into the 60s
throughout Monday night, as if the atmosphere knows that
meteorological fall starts in mere days.

Cooler high pressure from the Plains slips into the Ohio River
Valley and then into the mid-Atlantic Tuesday through Thursday. The
cooler, drier air mass will continue to take hold each day. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 80s become the lower 80s by Wednesday and
Thursday. Lows Tuesday night in the mid-to-upper 60s become the low-
to-mid 60s by Wednesday night. Dewpoints stay locked in the low-to-
mid 60s, even as low as the upper 50s in the far inland locales.
There could be just enough moisture at the coast to squeeze out a
shower or two each afternoon, but the activity should be limited.
Perfect timing for an autumnal tease.

Finally, the rip current threat looks to continue well into next
week. While the long period swells from Erin gradually come down,
they are immediately replaced by another system (AL90) that is
projected to head towards Bermuda. This system is likely to form
into a tropical depression by this weekend, and should stay
offshore, but a similar story with strong rip currents may again
plague the beaches for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR near the coast and brief IFR to MVFR inland will gradually
improve throughout the morning. Dry air advection aloft should
help to scour low clouds by noon. Progression of the front this
morning should position the main threat for showers and storms
south of the area today. Isolated showers could impact SC
terminals, but confidence is low. VFR should dominate NC
terminals. Another round of MVFR CIGs is expected tonight.

Extended Outlook... A cold front and area of weak low pressure
in the vicinity this weekend will bring a chance of restrictions,
primarily during the afternoon. Drier and cooler weather is
expected early next week with a prolonged period of VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Gradual improvement continues this morning with
lingering swell giving way to the more dominant northeast wind waves
generated behind the front. Winds decrease this afternoon as the
gradient relaxes. Showers and storms will impact the SC waters,
mainly Winyah Bay southward. Tonight, winds turn a little more
easterly as a weak surface low develops.

Saturday through Tuesday...ENE winds at 10-15 kts gradually decrease
to around 10 kts by Sunday. These winds will then back to the WNW
Sunday night into Monday, backing more to the SW by midday Monday
ahead of a cold front. This front moves through the coastal waters
Monday night, creating a variable wind direction by Monday night
through Tuesday. Easterly swells from Erin continue, with wave
height gradually decreasing, but the long periods remain. By
Tuesday, regardless of development with AL90, its swells will start
to arrive, carrying the same long periods as before, now out of the
southeast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide cycle through the weekend with the evening
high tide cycles being the higher high tide. Minor coastal flooding
is also expected along the SE NC and NE SC coasts during the higher
evening high tide today. Minor coastal flooding may continue into
the weekend.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of rip currents is expected to continue
through the weekend north of Cape Fear due to lingering swells from
Hurricane Erin. Rip currents may continue into early next week as
swells from another distant system approach the US east coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...IGB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM