079
FXUS62 KILM 230959
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
559 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for our southeast North Carolina
areas tonight through Friday afternoon. Need to see how
rainfall trends go before that watch potentially extends further
out into the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A slow-moving cold front will bring periods of heavy
  showers and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and Saturday
  night, with an attendant risk for localized flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow-moving cold front will bring periods of
heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and
Saturday night, with an attendant risk for localized flash
flooding.

Latest surface analysis shows the front nearly stationary across
parts of Appalachia, as it begins its crawl towards the Piedmont
region today. A line of rain has already formed well ahead of
this front, basically situating itself right along the I-40 and
I-85 corridors along and north of the NC Triad and Triangle.

This line of rain and embedded thunderstorms will very slowly
approach the coast by sometime tonight. Before it, the seabreeze
may try to kick up some isolated shower and storms just inland
from the coast this afternoon. Triple digit heat indices
expected east of I-95 this afternoon, and while a couple of
spots right along the coast may reach 105+ degrees at times,
the signal does not appear widespread or consistent enough for a
Heat Advisory.

All eyes on tonight through Friday, and perhaps into the
weekend, where this front will trudge its way towards the coast
and stall out sometime late Friday into Saturday. Precipitable
water values skyrocket to over 2.25", potentially up to 2.5" in
some spots. This is near or even over the daily maximum values
recorded on previous CHS and MHX RAOBs, per the SPC Sounding
Climatology page. Ample moisture transport spotted at 925 mb,
and the forecast soundings certainly look soaked throughout the
column. No doubt, this is a tropical environment without the
tropical system in place.

Much agonizing occurred with this particular forecast,
particularly when it came to issuing vs. not issuing a Flood
Watch. There are reasons to hold off, with the extreme to
exceptional drought being the main reason. Upshear and downshear
Corfidi vectors are a bit too speedy to suggest flash flooding,
and CAPE profiles look a bit too wide, as opposed to a skinny
appearance. 850 mb moisture transport vectors are also a bit
more continental than what you would traditionally think for a
flash flooding setup around these parts.

Ultimately though, decided to go with the Flood Watch for all of
southeast NC. This appears to be one of the best tropical
environments we`ve seen in quite sometime, and training storms
looks to be a sure thing at some point along the way.
Probabilistic data broad-brushes the area with 1-3 inches, but
I`m wondering if that`s a bit underdone in southeast NC. This
environment is capable of producing 2+ inch/hour rainfall rates,
even upwards of 6+ inch/hour. In fact, this is already
happening, per KRAX data in parts of Forsyth and Guilford
Counties.

I think more reasonable rainfall amounts are in the 2-4 inch
range for southeast NC, stepping down towards 1-3 inches across
northeast SC. Locally higher amounts possible (perhaps likely)
in some spots, particularly in the Cape Fear region. We have a
long way to go before we think about busting the drought, but
perhaps this helps restore a bit more order in the water table.

Generally, the peak of this event is late Thursday through
Saturday. Low pressure forms along the stalled front offshore
late Friday into Saturday, where it will gradually drag out into
the Atlantic. Rain chances gradually come down Sunday and
especially into next week. With clouds thinning out at that
point, temperatures start shooting up towards Heat Advisory
thresholds again by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another night of SCT/BKN MVFR clouds, mainly at coastal
terminals. These should scatter out further through ~10AM.
Afternoon showers/storms expected 18Z-24Z but activity may
persist even later into the period as a cold front approaches,
especially for inland terminals. Predominant SW winds with
inland spots turning more northerly through the day with the
front. More solid CIG/VSBY restrictions should arrive in the
late afternoon/evening but there`s uncertainty due to
convection. Tried to at least get MVFR in there.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to storms
remains possible through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoon
and evening. Conditions should start to dry out Monday with
predominant VFR returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled, thanks to an
approaching cold front pushing the tighter gradient out to sea.
This will become more pronounced heading into Friday as the
front stalls along the coast. Right now it looks like winds only
veer as far as westerly and no northerly component becomes
established. Seas comprised mostly of shorter period wind chop,
not forecast to change appreciably through the period as even
late in the forecast any swell energy that develops will remain
well offshore in S to SW flow.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB