Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
058 FXUS62 KILM 301826 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unusually hot weather with high humidity will continue through Friday. A cold front should push through by Friday night bringing noticeably less hot weather for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Trough extending from weak low just off of the Cape Fear coast along with weakening mid to upper trough and pcp water values up around 2.4 inches were contributing to greater coverage of storms this afternoon. By tonight, models show this weak trough lifting north as the sfc high to the east nudges in with a steady S-SW flow developing into Thurs. May see best coverage just north and west of area on Thurs along pre-frontal trough and where best shortwave energy rides across the mid to upper trough to the north. This activity should not reach into our local area until after this period. The mid to upper ridge builds up from the south on Thurs, perhaps enough to help lessen coverage over coastal SC Thurs aftn. With that being said, confidence is fairly low due to the fact that plenty of warm and moist air exists and localized sea breeze activity is always a possibility. Temps should top 90 in most places on Thurs with dewpoints in the 70s giving way to another hot and humid day. Expect heat index values above 100 and may reach above 105 in spots for a short while, but looks like overall we should remain just below heat advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Convection may linger into the overnight hours Thursday night, particularly closer to the coast, due to continued presence of deep moisture, upper forcing, and whatever outflow boundaries may remain from earlier that day. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s. Frontal system moves through the area Friday and Friday night. This kicks up the moisture profiles even more, along with more organized forcing. Rain and thunderstorms likely Friday afternoon and evening as the front moves through. Considering the increased moisture in the layer (precipitable water values lingering in the 2.30-2.40" range), high rain rates in heavy rain may lead to a flash flooding concern in certain areas, particularly in the lowest lying areas along the coast. As such, we are in a "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/4) for excessive rainfall, per the Weather Prediction Center. Latest temperature and dewpoint data suggest that we may reach Heat Advisory criteria (again) across the area. This depends on when convective initiation really begins. If rain and clouds increase considerably by mid-late morning, this would wipe out the advisory. Will need to monitor this with time. Convection likely to continue into Friday night. Lows in the low-to-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Front lingers just offshore Saturday, while shortwave forcing sticks around, creating more chances for showers and storms in the afternoon, with the highest chances along the coast. Even so, showers and storms shouldn`t be quite as widespread, with drier air infiltrating the upper levels of the atmosphere. The most impressive part of the story here is the temperature drop. Highs Saturday only get into the lower 80s, which lingers around 10 degrees below normal in some spots. Throughout the extended period, no triple digit heat indices in sight. Highs very slowly moderate towards the upper 80s by the middle of next week. Rain chances remain decent everyday, mostly thanks to multiple shortwaves traversing through the area, while mesoscale features like the seabreeze may help things out. Cooler lows in the mid-to- upper 60s Saturday night slowly moderate into the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly active afternoon as trough lingers over the area and sea breeze convection flaring up. Shwrs/tstms should continue to affect the coastal terminals into early this evening before diminishing. In heavy rain vsbys and ceilings should drop briefly as low as IFR in any given storm. Expect some low clouds and fog, mainly inland terminals after 08z with possibility of tstms, mainly after 15z on Thurs. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms. Vis and low cig restrictions are possible each night through the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Variable winds driven mainly by sea breeze into early this evening and land breeze overnight will become steadier out of the S-SW into Thurs. High pressure to the east and approaching trough/cold front will tighten the gradient a bit heading into later on Thurs with winds reaching up near 10 kts or so. Thursday Night through Monday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts linger Thursday night through Friday ahead of a cold front, with seas generally at 2-3 ft. Front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, with veering winds occurring throughout. Winds finally settle on northeasterly by late Saturday morning, a trend that continues through Monday. Gradient winds increase Saturday night through Sunday, where gusts may increase up to 20-23 kts. Confidence in Small Craft Advisory thresholds have decreased, but the forecast has wavered a bit, so we`ll have to see where the trends go. For now, look for 3-4 ft waves at the coast, 4-5 waves out 20 nm offshore. Gradient decreases Sunday night through Monday, allowing gusts to dip below 20 kts, and seas decrease to 2-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...RGZ/IGB