Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
042 FXUS62 KILM 220624 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday. Remains of a 5h low accompanied by deep moisture will pass offshore today. This feature helps spread deeper moisture and weak PVA over the area leading to an uptick in convection, especially closer to the coast. Inland convection will lag the coast a bit and will depend more on lingering boundaries and some weak pre-frontal convergence, so far from a sure thing. Lack of strong winds and poor lapse rates along with limited instability suggest minimal severe potential today, although lightning will remain a threat with any deeper convection. Significant change in conditions Wed/Thu following tonight`s cold front. Wedge sets up, dropping temperatures below normal and forecast soundings show plenty of low level moisture under the inversion, strongly suggesting low clouds and mist/drizzle/light rain. Cutoff low off the Mid-Atlantic coast along with associated surface low will ensure northerly flow continues through at least Thu and wouldn`t be shocked if the wedge holds on through at least part of Fri, potentially keeping the end to the week cloudy and cool. Eventually the deep dry air works its way into the 5h low and filters to the surface. The wedge breaks late in the week due to the dry air and a shift in the location of the surface high in response to the movement of stacked low off the East Coast. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Currently widespread VFR. Biggest forecast concern is showers and thunderstorms off the coast this morning. These will move toward shore given the flow, but thus far activity is struggling to maintain itself, especially as it approaches the coast. It may be that this activity struggles until some daytime heating can add a bit of surface based instability. However, do think clouds associated with this activity will start moving onshore during the pre-dawn hours and this could lead to some periods of MVFR ceilings at the coastal terminals. Inland sites may see some MVFR fog develop, although confidence is low. Boundary layer winds only drop off close to dawn and low level RH is a bit low for development of fog. After daybreak, clusters of showers and possibly thunderstorms will spread slowly westward across the area. The highest potential for impacts is expected between 14-19z at the coastal airports. Inland sites could see a late day round of showers and a few thunderstorms develop ahead of the approaching front. Not a lot of forcing outside of the front itself, but outflow boundaries from coastal storms will be a wildcard. Cold front arrives around the end of the valid TAF period and will bring enhance northerly winds and lowering ceilings. Extended Outlook...High likelihood of MVFR/IFR ceilings Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... Weak gradient and benign conditions continue into tonight before the passage of a cold front brings about a big change. Prolonged stretch of enhance northeast flow sets up later tonight and persists through at least Fri. While there is at least some potential for winds of 34kt or greater at some point Thu, especially for the offshore waters, the potential and confidence right now are low. No plans for headlines of any kind at this point give the time range and low confidence on when SCA conditions will develop. The strength and duration of the northeast flow will likely require several days of headlines before conditions slowly improve over the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...III KEY MESSAGES...III DISCUSSION...III AVIATION...III MARINE...III