318
FXUS62 KILM 091814
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
214 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions
will impact the area as low pressure develops and moves along
the Southeast Coast. Moderate rainfall is possible along the
coast Saturday. Improvement is expected into early next week as
high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fairly seasonable through the period as high pressure to our north
progresses eastward. Wind will grow a bit lighter tonight as mixing
grows shallow but decoupling not expected. Tomorrow turns breezy
again along the coast  where gradient gets more strongly pinched
between this high and the very beginnings of low pressure developing
over Florida peninsula. This will start to overrun the high, this
moisture generally being confined to cloud cover that increases in
coverage/lowers in height from S to N. Rain chances will also
slowly ramp up on Friday as well from S to N but also from coast to
inland. With current dry dewpoints in place suspect that guidance
may be a tad quick with rain reaching the ground as a few hours of
virga appear likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be categorized by the passage of the
offshore low pressure system from our south to our north, primarily
through Saturday. This will result in breezy NE winds much like what
we`ve been seeing, with gusts ~25-30 mph. Rainfall amounts have
ticked up as Saturday approaches, with the SE NC coast now possibly
seeing 1-2" and the NE SC coast seeing ~1". There`s still some
uncertainty in how far inland moderate rainfall will make it, but in
general our NC areas will see more rainfall than SC, and areas west
of I-95 could remain mostly dry. Thunder should also remain confined
to the coast, perhaps slipping a bit more inland for NC. Light rain
may persist overnight Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Come Sunday the low will be near Cape Hatteras where it will
continue north through early next week, rain chances coming to an
end. Ridging high pressure inland will bring drier weather through
the rest of the period with temperatures moderating a bit above
normal as we see full sun every day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moderate to high confidence of VFR for a good portion of the period.
Confidence lowers overnight as low pressure developing near FL
spreads moisture up the coast. Late period CIGS likely fall to MVFR
from south to north. NE winds remain gusty along the coast
especially during daytime hours.

Extended Outlook...Lowered ceilings and vsbys from rain through
as late as Sunday as low pressure moves up the coast. Clearing
out to VFR onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday... Gale Warning in effect and will remain though it`s
going to be pretty borderline. Seas however will remain quite
treacherous not only on account of the wind speeds but also the
increasingly long NE fetch that develops as low pressure develops
near Florida Friday.


Friday Night through Tuesday...Hazardous marine conditions will
prevail through early next week as we`re sandwiched between ridging
high pressure inland and an offshore low. Gale Force gusts should be
ending at the start of the period with gusts 25-30 kts continuing
over the waters through Saturday.as the system surges to our north.
There is a low chance that gusts may reach Gale Force once more as
the system comes closest to us late Saturday into early Sunday, so
I`ve adjusted gusts slightly higher while still keeping them below
Gales as confidence is low at this time. Small Craft Advisory
conditions may then linger into early Monday before we see
improvements, with offshore winds gusting 15-20 kts and seas
dropping from ~5-8 ft through the weekend to 3-5 ft by mid
Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are still quite high but now ever so slightly
falling. Morning high tides will still handily meet advisory
thresholds. The tougher consideration is whether or not Springmaid
Pier gets to moderate/8.5`. Conflicting issues: astro tide
decreases, windspeeds stay elevated, but are slightly veered and
thus onshore. Will make decision about Flood Watch ASAP.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for beaches north
of Cape Fear today, likely continuing through the weekend due to
strengthening ENE swell and a developing low pressure system off the
coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...