113
FXUS62 KILM 270541
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
141 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot high pressure will continue this heat wave through much of
this week. A cold front may arrive by late Thursday or Friday
with better chances of thunderstorms and more seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect another day of dangerous heat on Sunday. Identical high
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 inland. The Extreme
Heat Warning continues through Monday. Persistence forecast in
regards to precip chances today. Light westerly flow will
converge along the sea breeze this afternoon. The best
convergence of theta-e will likely be located in southeastern
NC. Given yesterday`s coverage, I have increased PoPs to 20%-30%
for coastal southeast NC. Overnight lows will not provide any
relief: upper 70s inland to near 80 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upr-level ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS
early this week, but showing some hint of gradually breaking
down. Still, max heat indices in the 110-115 degree range are
expected Monday so the Extreme Heat Warning continues. Expect
slightly better deep-layer moisture Monday than today, and with
that and weak impulses in the NW flow aloft and aftn sea
breeze, PoPs are up to 40-50% over most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ridge will start to break down through the long term period
with several more small scale disturbances posed to move
through aloft. Into midweek, a Midwestern storm system will
begin to push towards the area with the ridge further breaking
down as areas of low pressure cut into it. With the increased
support aloft increasing rain chances, Heat Advisories (105F
heat index) may return through late week. Towards the end of the
week the system should bring a cold front to us with a trough
aloft, with the probability of seeing 90 degree highs dropping
significantly into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the period. Winds
will be light and out of the W for inland terminals and SW near
the coast as a sea breeze attempts to push onshore. Isolated
showers or storms are possible over coastal southeastern NC this
afternoon, similar to yesterday. PROB30 maintained for ILM
during the afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions
possible in scattered thunderstorms mainly with the sea breeze
front and Piedmont trough inland. Increasing coverage of
showers/storms is expected Thursday with an approaching cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Southwest winds this morning will strengthen
and gradually shift toward the south this afternoon as a sea
breeze develops. Winds will generally be around 10 knots outside
of the sea breeze. Seas around 1-2 feet offshore in lighter
winds, increasing to around 2 feet this afternoon in the gusty
sea breeze.

Monday through Thursday... Quiet marine forecast continues with
Bermuda high pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland.
Winds steady out of the SW to S at 5-10 kt, occasionally up to
~15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft, which includes a weak ESE 8-9 second swell
component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21