225
FXUS62 KILM 242302
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
602 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore, bringing warming
temperatures early this week. A mainly dry cold front will move
through late Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by cooler and
drier high pressure Wednesday. A second, stronger cold front
will bring unsettled weather Thursday followed by the coldest
air we`ve seen so far this season by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track with this update so only minor tweaks
made to temperatures based on trends in the observations.
Mainly lowered temperatures for the rest of the night for our
colder spots in Pender/Bladen counties, but only very slightly
as SW flow tonight should keep us from getting as cold as we
have been. Updated aviation below.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of area weather tonight
and Monday resulting in fair weather and warmer temperatures.
Lows tonight should bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s
with slightly warmer numbers nearer the beaches. Highs Monday
will reach the lower 70s with upper 60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to influence the area Monday night,
keeping a quiet forecast in place. Lows in the lower 50s with
clouds increasing overnight.

A dry cold front pushes through Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Precipitable water does increase to the 1.00-1.25" range, and
minimal forcing could produce a couple light showers, but this
doesn`t really result in any rainfall accumulation. The moisture
presence will mostly manifest in extra cloud cover throughout
the day. Highs Tuesday edge up to the lower 70s.

Tuesday night, winds below 850 mb veer to the north and then
northeast, which brings in cooler air. Lows range from the upper
30s inland to the upper 40s at the coast, about 10 degrees
cooler than the night before.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cool and dry high pressure comes back into play for Wednesday,
with plenty of sunshine expected and highs in the upper 60s.

More moisture and shortwave energy approaches from the west
Wednesday night, which allows for an increase in cloud cover
once again. This mean that lows Wednesday night rebound back
into the lower 50s.

The biggest story is a much more potent cold front that is
slated to move through the area Thursday and Thursday night. It
carries much better upper forcing with it and a bit more
moisture. This system appears to carry some of the better
looking shear and instability parameters than we`ve seen in
awhile. Kept in a slight chance for thunderstorms for now, but
if the forecast continues to hold, that confidence will get
better over time. Bulk shear may try to eclipse 50 kts, with 0-1
km possibly lingering around 30 kts. Will need to monitor how
this unfolds in the coming days.

From there, the front should push offshore by late Thursday
night, allowing for more high pressure to enter the area. This
will bring the coldest air of the season so far, with highs in
the low-to-mid 50s Friday through Sunday. Widespread lows at or
below freezing look likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Some fog formation may be
possible tonight in SE NC but not expecting impacts to terminals
as it should be relegated to colder spots in Pender/Bladen.
Light winds will become SW at 5-10kts after sunrise Monday.

Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday as
high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of restrictions
later Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Visibility restrictions
from rain and lowered ceilings are expected Wednesday night as
well as on Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...W to SW of 10 to 15 KT are expected through
the period. Seas should run about 2 FT.

Monday Night through Friday...Southwesterly winds continue at
10-15 kts through Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
Seas increase slightly up to 2-3 ft. Cold front moves through
the waters late Tuesday, allowing for the winds to slow down to
10 kts and veer northerly and then northeasterly by Wednesday.
Seas come back down to 1-2 ft. Winds go back around to
southwesterly Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of a stronger
cold front. This brings sustained winds up to 20 kts and gusts
over 25 kts, and seas rapidly build to 3-4 ft at the coast, and
6 ft waves 20 nm offshore. Needless to say, Small Craft Advisory
looks more likely Thursday night into Friday. After the front
moves through, winds and seas drop down below criteria, while
the winds veer northwesterly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB/31