336
FXUS62 KILM 062341
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
741 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall across the coastal Carolinas for the next
several days, maintaining unsettled weather with periods of
showers and thunderstorms possible. The front should dip to the
south this weekend with chances of showers remaining in the
forecast as low pressure system develops over the Southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH Wednesday/...
Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary just
offshore, while high pressure lingers far back into the Deep
South. The cutoff low that has continued to linger in the
eastern CONUS will finally lift northeastward tonight into
Wednesday morning. Quiet weather continues through tonight,
albeit an increase of high clouds from the west is expected.
Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 50s inland, lower 60s at the
coast. May have some very patchy fog before sunrise Wednesday
morning, but the high clouds should ultimately tamper the
chances.

Wednesday, a frontal system tracking along the Gulf coast
brings several waves of low pressure with it. Moisture will
continue to increase, leading to mostly cloudy skies by midday.
Despite precipitable water values increasing towards 1.25",
there is still plenty of dry air in the mid- and low-levels of
the column. Rain chances are not as widespread as one may think,
with northeast SC standing the best chances at capturing
showers. Instability is paltry at best, so I`ve left thunder out
of the forecast. Highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Front remains stalled offshore through the short term period as
a positively tilted upper trough develops over the Midwest.
Temps run slightly above normal Wednesday night through Thursday
night, courtesy of increased clouds overnight and May sunshine
with increased 850 temps during the day Thursday. Thursday still
looks to have the lowest pops of the extended forecast, but
with enough moisture and a little instability have maintained
25-35% pops Thursday afternoon, with dry air aloft helping to
limit coverage. Chance pops remain in the forecast for Thursday
night, aided by impulses aloft moving across the area ahead of
the upper trough with a weak surface low attempting to develop
along stalled front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prolonged period of unsettled weather continues to be present
in the long term forecast. Low pressure developing along the
stalled front will move off to the northeast while high pressure
builds in from the northwest and helps finally push the front
well offshore. High pressure wedge will help cool temps a bit
for upcoming weekend (along with increased clouds and rain). A
piece of the aforementioned positively tilted upper trough
breaks off towards the end of the week and attempts to turn into
yet another cutoff low, this time over the lower MS Valley.
This low/shortwave will slowly move across the Southeast this
upcoming weekend and through early next week. This will aid in
developing a low-level low pressure system over the lower MS
Valley. Isentropic lift intensifies on the east side of the low
impacting our area late Saturday into next week over surface
wedge, with higher QPF across northeast SC. There is still a
wide range of solutions/QPF amounts shown in ensemble guidance
associated with the low to the west, and it won`t be non- stop
rain for days, so timing and amounts will continue to be ironed
out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through midday Wednesday. Any leftover cumulus clouds from
today with dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.
Overnight, despite calm winds, fog development odds are low
thanks to a gradual increase in high clouds ahead of a mid-
level disturbance over the Southeast. KILM may see some brief
MVFR fog before sunrise Wednesday morning, but this is looking
more unlikely. Seabreeze circulation starts to ramp back up
midday Wednesday. Some MVFR cigs possible especially KMYR in
light showers after 18Z but too low confidence to include in the
TAFS at the moment.

Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR visibility in showers and
thunderstorms expected to continue through the end of the outlook
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...SSW winds at 5-10 kts this afternoon become
more light and variable by this evening. Seabreeze circulation
will kick back up by noon EDT or so Wednesday, bringing the
winds back to the SSW at 5-10 kts. Seas mostly at 2 ft, with a
few 3 ft waves possible 20 nm away from shore.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Southwest winds persist over
the coastal waters through Friday as front lingers offshore.
High pressure builds in from the northwest late Friday, pushing
the front off to the east, with northeast winds developing for
the weekend. Seas generally 2-3 ft, increasing to 3-4 ft briefly
Friday night. Morning thunderstorms will be possible over the
coastal water most mornings between Thursday and Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...EMH/DAG
MARINE...IGB/VAO