860
FXUS62 KILM 201052
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
652 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to bring dry conditions and summer like
temps through the early week period. This high pressure finally
breaks down by Tuesday, allowing for a frontal system with
increased rain chances to slowly approach and possibly stall
across the region during the mid to late week period.
Temperatures will continue to remain unseasonably warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Unseasonably warm weather continues with persistent deep
ridging over the Southeast. Surface high pressure just off the
coast maintains southerly winds with scattered cirrus during the
day. High temps will once again soar into the mid 80s (85-87F),
away from cool sea breeze influence. Winds go calm tonight
allowing temps to drop into the upper 50s, although depending on
how thick the increasing cirrus coverage is tonight temps might
end up a few degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff upper low north of the Leeward Islands will help keep the
modest upper high and ridging just off the SE States Coast thru
Mon. This position will keep any upper disturbances and sfc
frontal systems west thru north of the FA thru Tue. This
includes the backdoor front that barely makes it to HAT before
tracing back to the north later Mon. Sfc ridging from offshore
will extend inland well south of the FA this period. Tue into
Tue night the Leeward cutoff low begins to fill in as it drifts
off to the NE in turn allowing the upper ridging to become
suppressed to the SE. This allows flow to become WNW aloft. A
frontal boundary, well away from its parent low, will slowly
sink S, stalling across NC as it becomes oriented parallel to
the flow aloft. May observe low chance convection on the south
side of the front reaching the northern portions of the FA Tue
night. Will observe more clouds later Tue thru Tue night than
previous what we`ve observed the previous days. Above normal
temps this period, running 1 to 2 categories above normal,
especially during Tue daytime highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Wed, stalled sfc front basically from HAT WSW to ATL.
Majority FA on the warm side with available instability and
thus better chance for thunderstorm activity. The threat is
there with increased POPs to 40-50 percent across the FA Wed
afternoon into early evening, becoming slight there-after. The
sea breeze may also add additional tstorm threat during the
mentioned time-line. A southern stream embedded s/w trof aloft
will further aid the shower/thunderstorm threat during Thu with
POPs again 30-50 percent. This stalled frontal boundary kind of
loses it`s identity Thu into Fri and somewhat fades away.
However late Fri thru Sat, the next possible frontal boundary,
again well away from its parent low in SE Canada, will drop
towards the FA. This aided by the flow aloft more westerly or
possibly veering slightly to a WNW direction. Hopefully a more
WNW otherwise, the sfc front will slowly track to across or
possibly even stall. Nevertheless, could not go POP-less given
the uncertainty. Both daytime highs and night lows will
continue run above the norm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through this evening. Intermittent high
clouds through TAF period, move abundant during overnight hours
and more scattered during the day Sunday. Relatively light
south-southwest winds through Sunday night, with a slight
increase in southerly winds at coastal terminals with afternoon
sea breeze. Low confidence in fog potential tonight as winds go
calm, but cirrus clouds will thicken. Best chance for fog is ILM.

Extended Outlook...Moderate confidence in VFR through early
Wednesday, with a possibility of fog/stratus each morning.
Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions beginning
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions continue courtesy of
surface high pressure just off the coast. South-southwest winds
5-10 kts dominate, with some enhancement of the winds near the
coast due to healthy sea breeze. Seas around 2 ft through
tonight, primarily from a 7 sec SE swell with a weak wind chop
mixed in.

Monday through Thursday...Early on, the backdoor cold front to
make it as far as south as HAT, possibly to CLKN7 early on but
that may be stretching it. Nevertheless, the front lifts back
north later Mon as the upper ridging holds on. Thus, winds
generally S 10 kt Mon increasing slightly to 10-15 kt Mon night.
The sfc pressure pattern allows for a slight veer to the SW
10-15 kt for winds Tue thru Wed. This aided by a frontal
boundary dropping into NC Tue and stalling generally in a HAT
to ATL line thru Wed. The front becomes somewhat diffuse
allowing for a noisy sfc pressure pattern Wed night thru Thu.
Winds generally E to SE at 10 kt or less as the sfc pg will
remain relaxed. Seas generally will run 1 to 3 ft with a SE wave
at 7+ second periods dominating with short period wind waves on
top. Seas will be more choppy within 5 nm of the coast during
the aftn/evening sea breeze cycles Mon thru Wed. An Easterly
wave at 7+ second periods will become more dominant Thu thru
Fri.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/VAO