439
FXUS62 KILM 101725
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms this evening could produce localized
flooding, especially near the coast. Unsettled weather continues
on Monday before a gradual return to typical summertime
conditions of afternoon storms and near normal temperatures
during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak coastal trough coupled with very high PWATs continues to
support rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. The latest
round propagating over the far western portions of the forecast
area was focused along an outflow boundary. This feature will
continue to move toward the west this afternoon.

Over the last several days, especially for coastal areas, the
percent rainfall above normal ranges from 200-300%, even to
300-400% across portions of Columbus County. Given the high PWAT
environment will persist along with the coastal trough wavering
near the coast and antecedent conditions have decided to expand
the Flood Watch northward from Georgetown County along the
coast and just inland up to Columbus and New Hanover counties.
Additionally, probabilistic rainfall data shows widespread 2-3
inch amounts along with a potential high end of around 6 inches.
The environment continues to be ripe for some waterspouts.

Ample cloud cover and weak onshore flow will support lows in
the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast tonight. The
cloud cover during Monday will limit highs to around 80/lower
80s most locations. Lastly, minor coastal flooding is expected
along the lower Cape Fear River from near Wilmington. Plan on
issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Cape Fear focused
around high tide tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal trough responsible for multiple days of showers and
storms will dissipate late Monday into Tuesday. Ridging will
work its way westward from the Atlantic during the day on
Tuesday. This will feel a little more like a typical August
afternoon with humid air and highs in the mid 80s, accompanied
by scattered convection. The remnants of a surface trough will
still be in the vicinity of the Carolinas which should allow for
better storm coverage during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Troughing over the central US weakens as it pushes eastward on
Wednesday. While the best forcing will be waning, a shortwave
crossing the southern Appalachians should interact with the
Piedmont and Coastal Plain around peak heating. This should
produce another good chance of showers and storms. Pre-storm
heating will push temperatures into the upper 80s to around 90,
supplying plentiful instability.

Upper level high becomes more established over the southeastern
US on Thursday. The current position of the ridge puts us on the
northern periphery of the high with several shortwaves
producing increased afternoon rain chances both Thursday, and to
a lesser extent, Friday. Warm and humid with highs approaching
the lower 90s.

Lacking confidence in the forecast beyond late this week. A cold
front will push through the northeastern US late next week with
the upper level high drifting westward into the weekend. This
combination of features will influence temperatures and rainfall
potential, but the current forecast is simply a reflection of
climo. I capped PoPs around 40 for each day beyond Thursday with
highs around the normal: upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move
onshore and impact all terminals. High confidence of MVFR to
IFR CIGs at times, especially near convection this afternoon.
The potential for MVFR to IFR CIGs will exist overnight into
Monday morning as well with additional rounds of convection
likely. Winds could be gusty at times near any of the stronger
bands that move onshore otherwise winds will be E-SEly, becoming
variable overnight.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions to flight categories are
expected to continue at times through the extended outlook due
to either scattered convection or low ceilings each night
time/morning periods. More of the same is possible with a return
to more typical summer weather into midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday... The coastal trough will waver along the coast
and become increasingly diffuse through Monday. East of the
trough axis winds will be SEly around 10-15 kts, and west of the
axis winds will be light NEly/variable 5-10 kts. Locally higher
winds possible with any of the scattered convection which will
become more numerous tonight. The environment will remain
supportive of waterspouts as well. Seas will be 3-4 ft away from
the coast this afternoon and evening, then around 3 ft tonight.

Monday Night through Thursday... Southerly flow around the
Bermuda high should lead to E and SE flow beyond Tuesday. Winds
will be light at around 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots. Seas
around 2-3 feet early this week with gradual improvement to 1-2
feet by the middle of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ099-107>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...21/SRP