171
FXUS62 KILM 051048
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
648 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase this weekend as Tropical Depression Three
moves in from the south. More typical summertime weather returns
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Tropical Storm Watch has been expanded to include coastal
Brunswick county due to a slight eastward shift to the storm
track of Tropical Depression Three.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical Depression Three, currently east of southern GA,
continues to be ill-defined and meandering off the Southeast
coast. TD3 will approach the SC coast late today into tonight,
aided by offshore ridge, moving onshore late tonight/early
Sunday. The main impacts expected from the system remains heavy
rainfall and hazardous surf, regardless of system strength.

Tropical moisture begins to spread across the area today, with
PWATs greater than 2" moving onshore this morning and covering
the area by late afternoon/early evening. Some PVA ahead of TD3,
combined with moist atmosphere, will lead to scattered showers
during the day today with a focus east of I-95. Forecast has
chance of thunder during the day, but with overcast skies and
limited instability thunderstorms should be isolated. Biggest
threat for heavy rain and isolated flooding will come tonight.
PWATs peak around 2.4" as TD3 approaches the SC coast and rain
rates increase. Could see 1.5-3", with isolated higher amounts,
east of I-95 before dawn Sunday morning.

Hazardous surf conditions, due to strong rip currents and high
surf, will develop today and persist through Sunday, especially
for NE SC beaches. See Coastal section below.

The environment isn`t favorable for any significant
strengthening of the system, but if it can become a little
better organized today it may strengthen into a tropical storm.
If the storm does strengthen, it would lead to higher
probabilities of tropical storm force winds for our area,
particularly coastal NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night`s moderate to heavy rain continues into Sunday,
as what becomes of current Tropical Depression Three slides
north directly into the local area. Weak steering flow and very
deep warm cloud layers support the heavy rain potential. Soils
are on the dry side and rivers are fairly low which should help
limit the flooding threat to a point. A good example was the
storms last Wed evening which dropped 5-6" of rain in a short
period of time across parts of the forecast area. Only very
minor flooding was reported with this event, showing the current
conditions can take heavy rain. The caveat would be multiple
storms affecting urban areas in rapid succession and/or a
focused band leading to rainfall amounts in excess of 6" in a
short period of time. Again, not something that would happen on
a large scale, but would be possible on a localized scale. Still
a lot of uncertainty with any rainfall impact given timing and
location unknowns, and no Flood Watch is planned attm. Storm
total QPF averages 2-4 inches across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Following the aforementioned weak tropical system, the local
area returns to a more typical summer-time pattern with frequent
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day due to transient
shortwave energy aloft, daily seabreezes, and decent low/mid-
level moisture profiles. Expect high temps in the low/mid 90s
through the week, with heat indices close to or just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria (105 degrees) each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will begin to move onshore this morning (around
14z) impacting coastal terminals for the rest of the TAF period
potentially lowering to widespread IFR by 3z tonight, as
tropical moisture begins to spread across the area. These
ceilings may be variable at times during the day, and could see
brief periods of VFR, but MVFR is expected to dominate with
cloud heights lowering this evening into tonight. Inland
terminals will remain VFR during the day, with low ceilings
slowly spreading inland later today into tonight. FLO/LBT could
see MVFR/IFR conditions after 0z. Rain chances increase from
east to west during the day, with chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be
isolated, especially during the day, and so have limited the use
of VCTS in the TAFs Heavier rain rates are forecasted for
tonight, and that is when lower vsbys due to precipitation will
be most likely. Strong winds associated with Tropical Depression
Three are forecasted to move into northeast SC, and impact
MYR/CRE in particular, after 6z tonight.

Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected through Sunday
night due to low ceilings as tropical low moves onshore across
SC. Intermittent flight restrictions possible Monday through
Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential early morning
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Through Tonight...Tropical Depression Three is
currently meandering off the Southeast coast, east of GA,
approaching the SC coast tonight, potentially as a tropical
storm. Conditions will begin to deteriorate early this morning
for northeast SC waters as both ENE winds and seas increase.
Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect south of Cape Fear,
with a Small Craft Advisory north of Cape Fear (AMZ250) where
tropical storm force winds are unlikely but seas will be high.
Scattered showers during the day today will become heavier and
more widespread tonight, and can`t rule out potential for
waterspouts overnight as TD3 approaches.

Sunday through Wednesday...Strongest winds from the approaching
tropical system are expected on Sunday as it makes landfall
somewhere over South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch continues
over coastal waters south of Cape Fear due to the potential for
34 kt winds, while a SCA is now in effect through Sunday night
north of Cape Fear where winds will be weaker. Seas up to 7-9 ft
expected, lower north of Cape Fear. Once the system moves in and
weakens or exits the area at some point early next week, a more
typical summertime pattern sets up through midweek with S-SW
flow and seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Increasing south-southeasterly fresh swell
with wave periods averaging 7-8 seconds will feed onto the
beaches today in advance Tropical Depression Three. This wave
group should produce a high risk of rip currents at most area
beaches. Conditions should deteriorate further Sunday as the
tropical system approaches landfall on the southern South
Carolina coast when breaking wave heights in the surf zone could
approach 6 feet south of Cape Fear. A High Surf Advisory is now
in effect.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ110.
SC...Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ250.
     Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ252-254-256.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...