Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1100 AM CDT Fri Feb 14 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.
...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and
southeast Kansas have a near normal risk of flooding this Spring....
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.
This outlook is valid from February 14th through February 26th, 2025.
The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt, is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.
Recent Conditions:
A recent snowfall has left a small snowpack across most of Kansas
with only about an inch of snow still on the ground. This snow was a
fairly dry snow so liquid equivalent amounts were generally around a
tenth to two tenths of an inch across the service area. Most of the
HSA has received above normal seasonal snowfall.
Soils are currently frozen down to a depth of about three inches.
Another Arctic airmass is expected to impact the region the week of
February 17th which should deepen the depth of frozen soil.
The 90-day precipitation was near normal across central Kansas while
below normal across south central and southeast Kansas. The percent
of normal precipitation varied from 50 to 100 percent of normal. In
the below normal areas, precipitation deficits were running as much
as 2 inches.
Mean temperatures during the last 3 months have ranged from below
normal across central Kansas by up to 2 degrees, to near normal
across south central Kansas, to above normal across southeast Kansas
by up to 3 degrees.
Soil moisture across the HSA is near normal. CPC continues to show
soil moisture ranked between the 30th to 70th percentile over the
area.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued the 13th of February 2025,
shows a large swath of normal to abnormally dry conditions across the
HSA. Moderate drought (D1) is only showing up within portions of
Russell, Barton, Lincoln, Ellsworth, Cowley, and Sumner counties.
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map
shows streams across most of the HSA as being below to near normal.
(http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is near
normal. Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of their flood-
control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events.
Future Conditions:
The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of April
2025,
indicates no changes in drought conditions are expected.
There are several chances for rain and snow in the forecast for the
weekend of February 15th into the week of February 17th which will be
followed by much below normal temperatures.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
February-March-April shows equal chances of above, near, or below
normal temperatures across Kansas. CPC shows chances slightly
favoring below normal precipitation across the western half of Kansas
during the period with equal chances of above, near, or below normal
precipitation across the eastern half of the state.
The CPC 8-14 day Outlook for the period February 21st through 27th
shows a slight favoring of above normal temperatures across the
western half of Kansas while slightly favoring below normal
temperautres across southeast Kansas. Below normal precipitation is
slightly favored across all of Kansas.(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/11/2025 - 05/12/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 12 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 13 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 19 11 10 5 <5 <5
Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 27 18 6 <5 <5 <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 35 16 26 <5 <5 <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 14 13 7 7 <5 <5
Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 12 7 <5 5 <5 <5
Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 12 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 17 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 7 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Slate Creek
Wellington 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 33 30 16 10 <5 <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 15 12 7 5 <5 <5
Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 12 7 10 6 7 <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 10 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 21 22 13 11 <5 <5
Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 25 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Fall River
Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 9 21 <5 6 <5 <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 17 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 18 29 <5 <5 <5 <5
Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 10 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 21 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 25 18 16 11 <5 <5
Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 20 15 7 6 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 21 23 <5 8 <5 <5
Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 22 33 11 18 <5 <5
Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 23 32 18 25 10 13
Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 36 41 23 33 <5 <5
Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 36 37 22 27 <5 6
:Salt Creek
Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : <5 10 <5 6 <5 <5
:Saline River
Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 13 28 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 14 24 6 8 <5 <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 23 27 17 18 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 19 27 12 16 6 7
Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 6 8 <5 5 <5 <5
:Saline River
Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/11/2025 - 05/12/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.6 5.1 7.1 9.1
Hutchinson 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.8 4.5 7.1
Haven 2.0 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.4 8.8 10.8
Derby 1.6 1.9 3.2 4.9 7.2 12.9 14.0
Mulvane 6.2 6.6 8.0 9.7 11.9 17.8 18.8
Oxford 8.0 8.6 10.1 12.0 15.3 20.1 21.1
Arkansas City 3.7 4.2 6.4 8.2 11.3 15.6 17.8
:Walnut Creek
Albert 4.1 4.1 4.2 8.6 14.2 20.4 24.4
:Cow Creek
Lyons 4.2 4.2 4.2 10.0 14.2 17.2 17.8
Hutchinson 2.0 2.0 4.5 8.0 10.7 11.2 11.6
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills -0.1 0.4 6.7 11.4 17.1 24.4 25.8
Halstead 5.9 6.2 10.2 14.5 19.6 26.3 26.9
Sedgwick 2.2 3.3 7.3 10.8 14.6 23.7 25.5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th 7.1 7.4 10.1 12.2 15.2 17.6 19.0
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock 3.7 3.7 4.8 5.8 7.1 9.0 9.5
:Ninnescah River
Peck 3.4 4.4 5.5 8.1 12.0 15.6 18.2
Belle Plaine 10.0 10.9 11.8 14.3 18.0 20.9 23.8
:Slate Creek
Wellington 3.7 3.7 7.6 14.1 21.3 22.6 23.5
:Whitewater River
Towanda 2.8 5.3 7.8 11.5 17.5 24.4 25.6
Augusta 5.2 6.4 7.4 9.4 12.1 20.1 24.0
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado 7.0 7.3 8.1 9.4 14.2 22.4 25.7
:Walnut River
El Dorado 2.7 3.1 3.5 5.8 9.4 13.1 13.8
Augusta 6.4 6.7 7.6 9.7 15.8 23.0 23.9
Winfield 2.5 3.6 6.3 9.8 16.6 23.7 28.7
Arkansas City 3.9 4.7 8.1 9.7 13.4 17.1 19.2
:Chikaskia River
Corbin 2.3 2.3 4.5 6.8 10.1 12.6 14.3
:Fall River
Fredonia 3.4 4.6 7.4 10.4 14.2 16.2 22.4
:Verdigris River
Altoona 5.1 7.0 8.7 12.8 18.2 19.9 20.5
Independence 5.8 7.6 12.7 18.0 27.2 34.1 35.6
Coffeyville 2.1 3.5 4.3 6.3 14.2 18.1 21.3
:Cottonwood River
Florence 3.8 4.1 6.4 10.5 20.9 26.0 26.8
Cottonwood Falls 1.5 2.6 3.6 5.0 9.1 12.5 14.2
Plymouth 4.6 8.9 12.6 19.4 31.2 33.8 34.3
:Neosho River
Iola 9.2 9.4 9.7 11.7 14.2 18.3 19.3
Chanute 10.7 11.4 12.6 18.3 21.7 29.2 30.8
Erie 14.8 15.9 17.3 23.4 28.3 36.2 36.8
Parsons 10.6 11.9 13.4 19.2 22.6 26.5 27.9
Oswego 8.6 9.6 10.3 14.0 19.4 23.2 24.8
:Salt Creek
Barnard 4.3 4.6 5.0 8.4 9.1 16.3 18.9
:Saline River
Lincoln 10.7 10.9 12.4 15.3 17.4 26.8 32.8
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 6.6 6.6 7.2 9.8 17.8 24.2 26.1
Mentor 4.2 4.3 5.1 7.7 14.6 22.1 25.0
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 4.5 4.6 5.5 7.9 23.3 26.4 27.0
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 9.6 11.7 14.1 19.6 24.9 31.1 33.8
Russell 3.6 3.6 5.0 7.0 8.9 11.2 14.4
Ellsworth 2.0 2.3 3.3 5.0 8.0 18.4 21.8
:Saline River
Russell 4.1 4.2 4.9 6.2 8.8 10.4 13.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of
flooding across most of the HSA this spring. A substantial part of
this assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the
seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that
does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and
placement of precipitation and thunderstorms.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
February 27th.
$$
Iwasko