558
FXUS63 KICT 101116
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm today with very high grassland fire danger area
  wide.

- Above normal temps to continue through the remainder of the
  work week.

- Powerful low pressure system to bring very high winds Friday
  along with very dangerous fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Currently have an upper impulse tracking across the Lower
Mississippi Valley with upper ridging over the Central/Southern
Rockies. Lastly, water vapor imagery shows some shortwave
energy tracking east across the Pacific Northwest.

Upper ridging will continue to slide slowly east today setting
up highs 20-25 degrees above normal as they top out in the upper
70s to around 80. Surprisingly we are not expecting records to
be broken today with most high temp records in the mid 80s. See
fire weather section below regarding dangerous burning
conditions today. Upper flow will start to flatten out tonight
into Tue as upper energy moves out of the Pacific Northwest and
across the Northern Rockies. One change from previous forecasts
was to increase highs on Tue as recent model runs have decreased
the strength of the upper wave and associated cool surge across
the Plains. So much of the area will again see highs in the 70s
on Tue, especially across southern KS.

By 12z Wed, another upper impulse will be tracking across the
Desert Southwest and out across the Southern Plains during the
day Wed. Still looking like any precip associated with this
feature will stay south of the forecast area. Attention will
then turn to a powerful upper trough set to come onshore
Thursday. This shortwave will track across the Great Basin Thu
night and out into the Central Plains on Fri. Confidence is high
that this system will bring very strong southwest winds to the
area on Fri afternoon/evening, and to a lesser extent, Saturday
as the low lifts off to the northeast. With extremely deep
mixing to around 700mb, confidence is high that a wind advisory
will be needed with a good chance we could be looking at another
widespread high wind warning. As far as storms go, there will
be chances over far southeast KS, but it doesn`t appear they get
organized until they reach the deeper moisture, which will
likely be east of our forecast area.

By 12z Sun, main vort max will be lifting into the Western Great
Lakes region as the upper flow starts to quickly become more
zonal. This will get temps quickly back to above normal for
Sunday with 70s possible by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Lee troughing will strengthen today and will allow for gusty
southwest winds by the afternoon. Confidence remains very high
that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period
and likely beyond.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2025

Very high fire danger will be in place area wide this afternoon
and early evening with a good chance we will see extreme fire
danger on Friday.

Temps soaring into the mid and upper 70s will bring afternoon
RH values in the 15-20% range. Southwest winds in the 18 to 23
mph range with gusts around 30 mph will bring very high fire
danger to the entire area this afternoon. Outdoor burning is
highly discouraged.

Powerful low pressure system on Friday will bring southwest
winds gusting in the 45 to 60 mph range across much of the area
with afternoon RH`s in the 20-30% range. This will likely result
in extreme grassland fire danger for parts of the area. Stay
tuned as we continue to refine the details.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...RBL