541
FXUS63 KICT 172331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Monday and Tuesday, with heat indices around 100 degrees.

- Low rain chances tonight into Monday, with better chances
  beginning early Tuesday morning and lasting through Wednesday.

- High temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon indicate
mid/upper ridging extending from the Central Plains and Middle
Mississippi River Valley on south. Model consensus holds this
ridge over the area through Monday and Tuesday, keeping high
temperatures in the middle to upper 90s to begin the week.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s will provide support for
heat indices in the low 100s throughout the area through mid-
week.

Short-range ensembles (HREF/REFS) highlight the potential for a
complex of showers and storms late tonight into Monday morning
primarily over north/northeast Kansas. A few ensemble members carry
these as far south as central Kansas, primarily along/north of US-
56. As such, it was decided to maintain 15% PoPs in these areas
through mid-morning. Widespread coverage for showers and storms is
not expected at this time.

Better chances for scattered shower and storm activity will arrive
in the area early Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough tracking
over the Upper Mississippi River Valley brings a cold front through
the forecast area. These will have the potential to last into
Wednesday depending on how quickly the front passes through the
region.

Near-normal high temperatures are anticipated to follow in the wake
of the aforementioned front, with values in the upper 80s and low
90s throughout the area to close out the work week. Long-range
models then point toward a potent mid/upper trough moving through
the Great Lakes region on Saturday, which may bring another shot of
seasonably cool air (highs in the low to middle 80s) to begin the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The biggest challenge for this forecast is if any of the
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing in the
west will track towards any of the TAF sites. At this time
confidence is low in the occurrence, so they were left out for
now. This may require amendments with any track changes. Otherwise
there are minimal aviation concerns with southerly winds around
10kts and VFR conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...VJP